← back to rankingUSFD · US Foods Holding Corp.
Food Distribution · mkt cap $17.8B · calls: Q1 FY2026 vs Q4 FY2025
41.0 conviction · conf-adj 41
conf 2/10 partial
enthusiasm:21.0 · trend:8 · quantifies:0 · impact:0 · under_radar:5 · credibility:0 · business_impact:4 · disruption:0 · commitment:0 · confirmation:3
Enthusiasm latest 7 / prev 6 (rising)
US Foods’ AI story is customer-facing digital on MOXY/MOXe: photo/PDF/handwritten order capture (Q4) and MenuIQ menu costing/margin analytics (Q1), framed as easier ordering, better operator economics, and seller time freed for growth. Enthusiasm is rising with a named product and first adoption KPI (15% of independents in two months), but management does not tie AI to revenue, margin, or productivity dollars—only adoption and qualitative links to penetration and case growth. Credibility is moderate: concrete shipped features and early usage data, but impact claims stay bundled with broader growth drivers and lack P&L attribution.
GROUNDED NEXT-FY IMPACT vs CONSENSUS
Grounded on actual base — revenue $39.4B · net income $0.7B · net margin 1.7% · diluted EPS 2.94
These are next-fiscal-year annual uplift estimates, not next-quarter numbers.
Aggregate next-FY est. rev uplift: % · next-FY EPS uplift: % · vs analysts: unclear · priced in: medium (model's call-read: high; verdict above is the hard-data one used for ranking) · confidence: 2/10
| Claim | Figure | Arithmetic | Next-FY Rev % | Next-FY EPS % |
|---|
MenuIQ adoption: 15% of independent customers in ~2 months
engagement · soft | 15% of independent customers | Disclosed: 15% of independent customers on MenuIQ within ~2 months of launch. To size topline I would need (a) revenue from independent customers as a share of the $39,424M base and (b) incremental spend per MenuIQ adopter — neither is disclosed anywhere in the claims. 15% adoption × undisclosed independent rev base × undisclosed per-adopter uplift = not estimable. No $ figure exists → rev/eps pcts null. | | |
MenuIQ adoption is double early internal expectations
engagement · soft | 2x internal plan (implied plan ~7.5%) | From same quote: 15% / 2 = 7.5% implied early internal plan → +7.5pp vs plan on adoption only. Purely relative to an undisclosed internal plan; anchors to no external dollar or revenue base and has no plan-to-revenue bridge. Tells you the rollout is ahead of management's own forecast, not the financial magnitude. Uncomputable → null/soft. | | |
MOXe users buy more on average and retain longer
engagement · soft | buy more / stick longer (no % disclosed) | Platform-level engagement, explicitly NOT AI-attributed, and quantified only qualitatively. No wallet-share %, retention %, or revenue base. Cannot translate a directional statement into revenue or EPS without fabricating the magnitude → null/soft. | | |
Assumptions: All claims are adopter-side (foodservice distribution; no supplier/compute revenue). No next-FY AI revenue, cost-save, productivity, or margin targets disclosed → no $ to flow. Earnings basis: consensus is on adjusted EPS (FY2025 epsAvg $3.94 / adj. NI ~$905M) vs GAAP EPS $2.94 / NI $676M; GAAP net margin is a thin ~1.71% (676M/39,424M), flagged as a thin-margin denominator, so any EPS% off GAAP would be a denominator artifact — I would have used the ~$905M adjusted base. Default tax 21%, incremental net margin = current net margin had a $ figure existed. Bookings/revenue phasing: N/A. None of these mattered because no AI claim carries a dollar amount or usable revenue base, so no incremental_net_income could be computed. Consensus trajectory: revenue $39,518M (FY25 cons) -> $41,432M (FY26, +4.84% vs FY25 cons / +5.09% vs FY25 actual) -> $43,091M (FY27); adj. EPS $3.94 -> $4.72 (+19.7%) -> $5.52 (+17.1%).
Top line: USFD is a pure AI ADOPTER. Every AI claim is an engagement/adoption datapoint with no attached dollars: MenuIQ reached 15% of independent customers in ~2 months (2x internal plan, implied ~7.5%) and MOXe users 'buy more / stick longer' (explicitly not AI-attributed, no %). With no disclosed independent-customer revenue base and no per-adopter spend uplift, the revenue impact is genuinely uncomputable → est_rev_uplift_pct = null. The signal is real and directionally encouraging but not yet a sizable, anchored topline number.
Bottom line: No EPS uplift can be sized. All claims are revenue/engagement in nature with no dollar figure, and no cost/productivity saving is disclosed to flow to the bottom line. Sizing an EPS% off the thin ~1.71% GAAP net margin (or even the ~$905M adjusted base) would require an incremental revenue number management never gave → est_eps_uplift_pct = null.
[impact n/m (all claims soft/unanchored)] Consensus already builds in steady growth without separately quantifying AI: revenue +4.84% FY26 (41,432M vs FY25 cons 39,518M) / +4.0% FY27, and adjusted EPS +19.7% FY26 ($3.94->$4.72) / +17.1% FY27, driven mostly by margin/operating leverage. Management disclosed ZERO AI revenue or margin targets, so there is no anchored figure to compare against this trajectory — the AI math points neither clearly above nor below consensus. Early MenuIQ KPIs (15% in two months, 2x plan) are genuine optionality but embedded in, not additive to, the existing independent-customer growth consensus already assumes, and are not yet translatable to the ~$2.0B FY26 revenue / ~$180M NI step consensus implies. Nothing in the calls lets you argue consensus is mis-sizing AI in either direction.
MODEL CONSENSUS (impact)
partial
Full agreement on all math (every claim soft/null, adopter-side, est_rev/eps_uplift null, vs_analyst unclear); only priced_in and confidence differed.
Conflicts reconciled
- priced_in: X=medium vs Y=high -> used high because conservative tie-break (no anchored AI uplift to add above an already growth-embedding consensus)
- confidence: X=3 vs Y=2 -> used 2, lowered per conservative tie-break on the priced_in disagreement
| Field | Opus 4.8 | GPT-5.5 |
|---|
| Rev uplift % | – | – |
| EPS uplift % | – | – |
| Priced in | medium | – |
| vs analysts | unclear | – |
| Confidence | 3 | – |
| Top line | USFD is a pure AI ADOPTER (foodservice distribution); no supplier/compute revenue. Every AI claim is an engagement/adoption datapoint with no attached dollars: MenuIQ reached 15% of independent customers in two months (2x internal plan) and MOXe users 'buy more / stick longer' (explicitly not AI-attributed, no %). With no disclosed independent-customer revenue base and no per-adopter spend uplift, the revenue impact is genuinely uncomputable — est_rev_uplift_pct = null. The signal is real and encouraging directionally, but it is not yet a sizable, anchored topline number. | – |
| Bottom line | No EPS uplift can be sized. All claims are revenue/engagement in nature with no dollar figure, and there is no cost/productivity saving disclosed to flow to the bottom line. Sizing an EPS% off the thin 1.7% GAAP net margin (or even the ~$905M adjusted base) would require an incremental revenue number that management never gave. est_eps_uplift_pct = null. | – |
| Reasoning | Consensus already builds in steady growth without separately quantifying AI: revenue +4.85% FY26 / +4.0% FY27, and adjusted EPS +19.7% FY26 ($3.94->$4.72) / +17.1% FY27 ($4.72->$5.52) driven mostly by margin/operating leverage. Management disclosed ZERO AI revenue or margin targets, so there is no anchored figure to compare against this trajectory — the AI math points neither clearly above nor below consensus. MenuIQ adoption (15% in two months, 2x plan) is genuine early optionality embedded in, not additive to, the existing independent-customer growth consensus already assumes; nothing in the calls lets you argue consensus is mis-sizing AI in either direction. | – |
Rows highlighted where the two models disagreed.
QUANTIFICATIONS
MenuIQ adoption (% of independent customers): 15% (two months since launch (Q1 FY2026), topline)
“In just two months since launch, 15% of our independent customers are using MenuIQ, which is double our early expectations.”
MenuIQ adoption vs. internal plan: double early expectations (two months since launch (Q1 FY2026), topline)
“In just two months since launch, 15% of our independent customers are using MenuIQ, which is double our early expectations.”
MOXe user wallet share / retention (platform-level, not AI-attributed): buy more on average; stick longer (no % disclosed) (since MOXe implemented (~3+ years per management), topline)
“we've seen the customers that use MOXe buy more from us on average and they stick with us longer”
PAST (realized)
- Q4 FY2025 — Launched AI-driven MOXe ordering (photos/PDFs/handwritten notes → orders).
- Q4 FY2025 — 2025 full year: "extending our technology leadership position through new embedded AI capabilities."
- Q1 FY2026 — Embedded new AI capabilities into MOXY; launched MenuIQ.
- Q1 FY2026 — MenuIQ adoption: 15% of independent customers in two months, double early expectations.
CURRENT (now)
- Q1 FY2026 — Customers and sellers using MenuIQ and MOXY AI tools; sales partnering on MenuIQ.
- Q1 FY2026 — "continue to expand the use of our proprietary and third-party tools."
- Q1 FY2026 — Applying AI to customer experience, productivity, and execution; penetration cited as partly driven by digital/AI tools.
- Q4 FY2025 — MOXe digital platform with embedded AI; customers who use MOXe buy more and retain longer (no AI-specific split disclosed).
FORWARD (guidance)
- Q1 FY2026 — "AI remains an important opportunity for us."
- Q1 FY2026 — "building momentum" as capabilities are applied across the business.
- Q4 FY2025 — Positioning digital ecosystem with AI-powered features for engagement, efficiency, and loyalty (no AI revenue/margin targets).
TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY
—/100 (no quantified promises) no-quantified-promises 6 calls reviewed
Over six calls US Foods described real AI use (generative seller order guide, MOXe AI search, photo-to-order, MenuIQ) and reported ex-post metrics such as ~3% search conversion lift and ~1.3M annualized incremental cases, but never set a forward quantified AI target with a deadline on these calls, so promise-versus-delivery cannot be scored.
PRICED-IN (REFINED)
MEDIUMEst. revisions flat · Fwd P/E 20.8 · EV/Sales 0.6x
AI claim maps to Product One, Product Two, Product Three
Analyst ratings are stable (buy ~11–12, hold drifting 4→3) with no clear upgrade migration; price targets are flat at $96.5 over the last month/quarter but down from $101.44 a year ago, so revision momentum is not rising. Forward consensus already embeds strong EPS growth (3.94→4.72→5.52) on modest ~4–5% revenue, which can absorb AI-driven margin/opex gains without a revenue-line surprise. Valuation is moderate, not stretched (fwd P/E ~20.8, EV/Sales ~0.6, fwd PEG ~1.6 vs food-distribution norms), so the AI thesis is partly in the numbers but not fully priced via premium multiples or rising revisions—hence medium priced-in.
COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS
3Q4 FY20246Q1 FY20254Q2 FY20258Q3 FY20257Q4 FY20258Q1 FY2026
AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend ↗ rising
From routing and e-commerce only to gen-AI seller tools, quantified MOXe search, then MenuIQ with adoption metrics.
BUSINESS IMPACT - QUALITATIVE MATERIALITY
5/10 qualitative impact moderate medium-term · mixed evidence
Where AI matters: MOXY/MOXe digital ordering and MenuIQ customer tools
Shipped AI (photo/PDF ordering, MenuIQ) with credible early adoption (15% of independents in ~2 months) and seller-productivity narrative, but management ties no dollars to AI—only engagement KPIs bundled with broader penetration/case growth.
Caveats: No P&L or wallet-share uplift attributed to AI vs. broader digital/MOXe story; MOXe 'buy more / stick longer' is platform-level, not AI-specific; MenuIQ/competitive menu tools could marginally ease supplier switching for sophisticated independents; Benefits may already be embedded in consensus margin/EPS growth without a discrete AI line item
AI DISRUPTION / CANNIBALIZATION RISK tailwind · 2/10
Core economics are physical broadline distribution (logistics, assortment, credit, last-mile); AI mainly reduces ordering friction and helps operators cost menus—it does not commoditize moving food or replace the distributor’s operational moat.
OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE
option liquidity: fair
proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $203M · beta 0.895 · px $82.28
source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.
CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE
Mixed — insiders selling, institutions adding, management language 6/10 measured.
INSIDERS selling 4 open-market sell(s) vs 0 buy(s) — net distribution
INSTITUTIONS (13F) adding as of 2026-03-31: 113 new / 90 closed positions; 355 increased / 231 reduced; institutional ownership -1.98pp; +23 net 13F holders
MGMT LANGUAGE 6/10 measured MenuIQ launch and adoption metrics show ownership; broader AI framed as opportunity and momentum, not quantified impact.
commit “We have embedded new AI capabilities into our MOXY platform that empower our customers and help them run their business more efficiently.”
commit “In just two months since launch, 15% of our independent customers are using MenuIQ, which is double our early expectations.”
commit “We recently launched MenuIQ, an AI-powered tool that helps restaurant operators better manage food costs and gives them real-time visibility into menu profitability.”
VERBATIM AI QUOTES
“We have embedded new AI capabilities into our MOXY platform that empower our customers and help them run their business more efficiently.”
— David E. Flitman, Q1 FY2026
“We recently launched MenuIQ, an AI-powered tool that helps restaurant operators better manage food costs and gives them real-time visibility into menu profitability.”
— David E. Flitman, Q1 FY2026
“MenuIQ is built the way operators work, bringing together essential capabilities that make menu management intuitive and actionable. Operators can upload recipes and automatically calculate food costs, monitor which menu items drive margins, and identify underperforming dishes.”
— David E. Flitman, Q1 FY2026
“He said MenuIQ is easy to use and super fast. He can cost out new menu items and try ingredient swaps in a few minutes on his phone—something that used to take hours juggling spreadsheets.”
— David E. Flitman, Q1 FY2026
“In just two months since launch, 15% of our independent customers are using MenuIQ, which is double our early expectations.”
— David E. Flitman, Q1 FY2026
“AI remains an important opportunity for us, and we continue to expand the use of our proprietary and third-party tools.”
— David E. Flitman, Q1 FY2026
“We are building momentum as we apply these capabilities to enhance the customer experience while driving productivity and more effective execution across the business.”
— David E. Flitman, Q1 FY2026
“It is both. For each tool, we have measures in place. At the heart of it are two objectives: deepen relationships and provide more meaningful capability for customers—making it easier to do business with us—and improve our sales force productivity.”
— David E. Flitman, Q1 FY2026
“The MenuIQ example: what used to take hours in spreadsheets is now seamless and quick with AI. Customers can understand menu costs, where profitability comes from or not, and where they may need to make changes.”
— David E. Flitman, Q1 FY2026
“It is powerful, and our salespeople partner with customers on it. It moves quickly, helps customers, and frees up salespeople to drive future growth.”
— David E. Flitman, Q1 FY2026
“It is hard to point to any single thing behind the acceleration in independent case growth, but it is all working together. The traction you see—importantly in penetration—is part of it.”
— David E. Flitman, Q1 FY2026
“extending our technology leadership position through new embedded AI capabilities”
— David Flitman, Q4 FY2025
“One example is the launch of our new AI-driven ordering feature, which enables customers and sellers to upload photos, PDFs and even handwritten notes directly into MOXe and seamlessly translate them into an order, saving them both time and effort.”
— David Flitman, Q4 FY2025
“industry-leading digital ecosystem embedded with AI-powered features that enhances customer engagement, drives efficiency and strengthens loyalty.”
— David Flitman, Q4 FY2025
“I think it's both. And we've talked about since we implemented MOXe over 3 years ago that we've seen the customers that use MOXe buy more from us on average and they stick with us longer. So there is growth upside to it as well.”
— David Flitman, Q4 FY2025
“An important part of it is ease of doing business with us, kind of taking the friction out of the relationship with our customers, which we've gotten very good traction with and importantly, also improving the sales force productivity because of things that the customer can now do self-serve in a very effective way within MOXe takes that burden off of our sales force and frees up time for them to go talk about our brands, find the next customer, drive further penetration within those customers, and that's where we want to see our sellers spending their time.”
— David Flitman, Q4 FY2025
ANALYST QUESTIONS ON AI
Q (Q1 FY2026, Brian Harbour (Morgan Stanley)): With some of the AI-enabled tools, how do you measure success? Are you seeing better penetration with customers that use those? Are salespeople more effective?
A: It is both. For each tool, we have measures in place. At the heart of it are two objectives: deepen relationships and provide more meaningful capability for customers—making it easier to do business with us—and improve our sales force productivity. The MenuIQ example: what used to take hours in spreadsheets is now seamless and quick with AI. Customers can understand menu costs, where profitability comes from or not, and where they may need to make changes. It is powerful, and our salespeople partner with customers on it. It moves quickly, helps customers, and frees up salespeople to drive future growth. It is hard to point to any single thing behind the acceleration in independent case growth, but it is all working together. The traction you see—importantly in penetration—is part of it.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Jacob Aiken-Phillips (Melius Research)): As you continue to layer in AI capabilities in MOXe and across your platform, should we think about that mainly as a cost productivity tool? Or do you see revenue and wallet share upside as well?
A: I think it's both. And we've talked about since we implemented MOXe over 3 years ago that we've seen the customers that use MOXe buy more from us on average and they stick with us longer. So there is growth upside to it as well. An important part of it is ease of doing business with us, kind of taking the friction out of the relationship with our customers, which we've gotten very good traction with and importantly, also improving the sales force productivity because of things that the customer can now do self-serve in a very effective way within MOXe takes that burden off of our sales force and frees up time for them to go talk about our brands, find the next customer, drive further penetration within those customers, and that's where we want to see our sellers spending their time. And so it's really both within MOXe.