← back to ranking

TTD · The Trade Desk, Inc.

Advertising Agencies · mkt cap $9.9B · calls: Q1 FY2026 vs Q4 FY2025
55.0 conviction · conf-adj 55

conf 4/10 partial

enthusiasm:27.0 · trend:0 · quantifies:0 · impact:0 · under_radar:14 · credibility:12 · business_impact:8 · disruption:-6 · commitment:-4 · confirmation:4

Enthusiasm latest 9 / prev 9 (flat)

Management's AI thesis is that TTD's objectivity, buyer trust, and scaled data make AI and agentic workflows more valuable inside its DSP, especially for decisioning, measurement, data activation, and campaign automation. Credibility is moderate to high because they cite product adoption and campaign-level performance metrics, but they do not quantify direct companywide AI revenue, margin, or cost savings. Enthusiasm remains very high across both calls, with Q1 adding more emphasis on agentic AI partnerships and AI-search/LLM ad inventory as future TAM.

GROUNDED NEXT-FY IMPACT vs CONSENSUS

Grounded on actual base — revenue $2.9B · net income $0.4B · net margin 15.3% · diluted EPS 0.91

These are next-fiscal-year annual uplift estimates, not next-quarter numbers.

Aggregate next-FY est. rev uplift: % · next-FY EPS uplift: % · vs analysts: unclear · priced in: low (model's call-read: high; verdict above is the hard-data one used for ranking) · confidence: 4/10

ClaimFigureArithmeticNext-FY Rev %Next-FY EPS %
Kokai client adoption ~100%
engagement · soft		almost 100% of clientsAdoption metric, not a dollar. ~100% means Kokai is fully ramped and already embedded in the $2.896B FY25 revenue base — no incremental spend, take-rate, retention, or pricing uplift is quantified, so there is no additive revenue layer to compute.
Audience Unlimited test: -30% CPM, -38% data cost, -75% CPA, 2.7x conv
engagement · soft		30% lower CPM / 38% lower data cost / 75% better CPA / 2.7x conversionClient-campaign performance vs a control group, not TTD revenue or cost. No TTD-level spend base, take-rate, or budget-reinvestment rate disclosed to map advertiser efficiency gains into TTD's take. Directionally drives more spend onto the platform but unquantifiable here.
Kokai omnichannel optimization: -17% CPA
engagement · soft		17% lower CPASingle-advertiser case-study outcome. No campaign spend or affected TTD revenue line disclosed — cannot convert a client CPA improvement into TTD revenue/EPS without inventing the base.
Best Western live-sports targeting: booking rate 2x, +89% incremental reach
engagement · soft		booking rate doubled; 89% better incremental reachNamed-client case study. Reach/booking lifts with no associated spend dollars or TTD take-rate; not mappable to TTD's $2.896B revenue.
Cheerios UK retail-data display: +88% conversions, 7x CPA
engagement · soft		88% more conversions; 7x better CPANamed-client case study. No campaign or TTD revenue base disclosed; advertiser-side efficiency, not a TTD P&L figure.
Decisioning scale: 20M ad opportunities/sec
other · soft		20 million/secondThroughput/scale metric (~6.3e14/yr), not a revenue or cost figure. No incremental monetization per opportunity or take-rate disclosed; describes the data moat behind the platform with no dollar to translate.

Assumptions: Incremental net margin would default to current 15.3% net margin and tax 21% IF any anchored dollar existed — but none does, so no flow-through was computed. Phasing N/A. All claims are TTD-as-adopter (AI improving its own Kokai platform's targeting/efficiency); none is supplier-side (TTD sells no AI compute/chips/capacity). Client case-study percentages (CPM/CPA/conversion) are advertiser outcomes, not TTD revenue lines, so they are not mappable without an undisclosed spend base.

Top line: No quantifiable incremental topline from the disclosed claims. The one revenue-relevant figure — ~100% Kokai adoption — signals the AI platform is already fully ramped and embedded in the $2.896B FY25 base, not an additive layer. Every other 'quantified' claim is an advertiser-side campaign result (-30% CPM, 2.7x conversion, 7x CPA, etc.) with no disclosed spend base or take-rate, so it cannot be converted into TTD revenue. Aggregate adopter-side rev uplift = null (unmeasurable from inputs, not zero).

Bottom line: No EPS uplift computable: there is no disclosed opex saving, headcount reduction, or incremental-revenue dollar to flow through at 15.3% margin / 21% tax. Net income base of $443.3M is healthy (not loss-making), so the guardrail isn't triggered — but with no anchored figure the eps_uplift is null rather than a number.

[impact n/m (all claims soft/unanchored)] Consensus embeds ~10.0% FY26 revenue growth ($2.896B -> $3.186B, +$290.2M) rising to $3.513B FY27 (+21.3% vs base) and +9.6% FY26 EPS ($0.91 -> $0.997) to $1.200 FY27. Because Kokai is already ~100% adopted, the AI benefit sits in BOTH the realized FY25 base and the forward curve — no disclosed dollar points above that trajectory. The math produces no incremental uplift to stack on consensus, so whatever AI value exists is already priced into the growth path.

MODEL CONSENSUS (impact)

partial

Full agreement on all null math, adopter side, and unclear vs-consensus; only priced_in degree and confidence differed.

Conflicts reconciled
FieldOpus 4.8GPT-5.5
Rev uplift %––
EPS uplift %––
Priced inhighmedium
vs analystsunclearunclear
Confidence53
Top lineNo quantifiable incremental topline from the disclosed claims. The one revenue-relevant figure — ~100% Kokai adoption — signals the AI platform is already fully ramped and embedded in the $2.896B FY25 base, not an additive layer. Every other 'quantified' claim is an advertiser-side campaign result (-30% CPM, 2.7x conversion, 7x CPA, etc.) with no disclosed spend base, so it cannot be converted into TTD revenue. Aggregate adopter-side rev uplift = null (not zero — unmeasurable from inputs).All quantified claims are adopter-side product or customer-performance metrics. They show broad Kokai deployment and strong advertiser ROI, but none disclose incremental TTD revenue, take-rate, campaign spend, or budget reinvestment needed to calculate uplift versus $2.896B revenue.
Bottom lineNo EPS uplift computable: there is no disclosed opex saving, headcount reduction, or incremental-revenue dollar to flow through at 15.3% margin / 21% tax. Net income base of $443.3M is healthy (not loss-making), so the guardrail isn't triggered — but with no anchored figure the eps_uplift is null rather than a number.No quantified claim discloses TTD cost savings or incremental revenue dollars. Therefore no anchored EPS uplift can be calculated versus $443.3M current net income, despite customer CPA and conversion improvements.
ReasoningConsensus already embeds ~10.0% revenue growth (FY25 $2.896B -> FY26 $3.186B) and +9.6% EPS ($0.91 -> $0.997). Because Kokai is already ~100% adopted, the AI benefit is in BOTH the realized FY25 base and the forward curve — there is no disclosed dollar pointing above that trajectory. The math produces no incremental uplift to stack on consensus, so whatever AI value exists is already priced into the ~10%/yr growth path.Consensus implies revenue rising from $2.896B current base to $3.186B in FY2026, a $290.2M increase or 10.02%, and to $3.513B in FY2027, a $617.0M increase or 21.30%. Consensus EPS rises from $0.91 to $0.99697 in FY2026, +9.56%, and to $1.19977 in FY2027, +31.84%. The AI claims may support that trajectory, but there is no hard disclosed incremental AI revenue or savings number to compare against consensus.

Rows highlighted where the two models disagreed.

QUANTIFICATIONS
Kokai client adoption: almost 100% (Q4 FY2025 call, current at that time, topline)
“First, almost 100% of our clients are running through Kokai today.”
Audience Unlimited campaign performance: 30% lower CPMs, 38% lower data costs, 75% more efficient CPA, 2.7x conversion rate (Q1 FY2026 call, recent test, both)
“Audience Unlimited delivered 30% lower CPMs on media, 38% lower data costs and 75% more efficient CPA and a 2.7x increase in conversion rate compared to the control group.”
Kokai AI-fueled omnichannel optimization: 17% lower cost per acquisition (Q4 FY2025 call, both)
“Thanks to Kokai's AI-fueled omnichannel optimization, they saw cost per acquisition decrease by 17%, while also gaining valuable new insights on the effectiveness of different channel activations at different stages of the customer journey.”
Kokai live sports targeting: booking rate doubled; 89% improvement in incremental reach (Q4 FY2025 call, topline)
“Another example, Best Western saw their booking rate double when using Kokai to target live sports opportunities, thanks to an 89% improvement in incremental reach with Kokai.”
Retail data on Kokai campaign results: 88% more conversions; 7x better CPA (Q4 FY2025 call, both)
“Cheerios ran a display campaign in the U.K. recently using retail data for audience targeting on Kokai. They saw 88% more conversions and 7x better CPA.”
Ad opportunity decisioning scale: 20 million ad opportunities every second (Q4 FY2025 and Q1 FY2026 calls, topline)
“At The Trade Desk, we have built the industry's most advanced, trusted and objective data set, which is based on factors like these, 20 million ad opportunities every second, each with thousands of data variables and each valued objectively.”
PAST (realized)
CURRENT (now)
FORWARD (guidance)
TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY

75/100 track record   delivers  6 calls reviewed

The Trade Desk made few hard quantified AI promises — chiefly the 100%-by-2025 migration to its AI-powered Kokai platform plus associated AI components (Deal Desk, OpenSincera) — and largely followed through, shipping the products and reaching 'almost 100%' migration on schedule, though the headline 100% target was reported as nearly-complete rather than a clean full hit.

Transition 100% of clients from Solimar to the AI-powered Kokai platform during calendar 2025 — promised Q4 FY2024
partial Steady migration — ~two-thirds of clients (Q1), 75% of spend (Q2), 85% default (Q3) — reaching 'almost 100% of clients running through Kokai' by Q4 FY2025; materially hit on schedule but not stated as a clean 100%
Ship final major Kokai component: AI-driven Deal Desk for deal performance management — promised Q2 FY2025
delivered Launched from beta and scaled — deals on Deal Desk reportedly ~35% better than Solimar by Q3 FY2025 and featured again in Q4
Relaunch Sincera as free OpenSincera in the coming months — promised Q1 FY2025
delivered By Q2 FY2025 OpenSincera had launched and was already being used by publishers to inspect ad-quality signals
Disney to shift 75% of ad revenue to biddable programmatic by 2027, enabled by TTD's AI/Deal Desk tooling — promised Q2 FY2025
too-early Partner-driven 2027 target; timeframe has not arrived, still cited as in progress
PRICED-IN (REFINED)
LOW (room left)

Est. revisions falling  ·  Fwd P/E 24.7  ·  EV/Sales 3.2x

AI claim maps to UNITED STATES, Non-US

Estimate revisions are falling: buy/strong-buy counts declined from January to June while holds rose, and average price targets fell from last year to last quarter to last month. Consensus still embeds moderate forward growth, but not accelerating enough to offset the negative revision signal. Valuation at 24.7x forward EPS and 3.2x EV/sales is not distressed, but it is not so stretched that AI upside looks fully capitalized. Because rising estimates would make the thesis more priced-in and the actual revision trend is falling, the AI upside appears low priced-in, with impact most likely flowing through the reported geographic revenue base.
COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS
6Q4 FY20244Q1 FY20259Q2 FY20258Q3 FY202510Q4 FY20258Q1 FY2026

AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend ↗ rising

AI moved from a broad investment theme to core Kokai/Koa performance, automation, supply optimization, and expanding TAM via AI search.

RECENT AI CATALYSTS & NEWS
BUSINESS IMPACT - QUALITATIVE MATERIALITY

8/10 qualitative impact   material  near-term · mixed evidence

Where AI matters: DSP decisioning, measurement, and campaign automation

AI is embedded in TTD's core DSP through Kokai/Koa, optimization, data activation, and emerging agentic campaign workflows, with near-universal client adoption and advertiser-side performance case studies. The upside is material to product differentiation and spend capture, but companywide revenue/EPS uplift is not quantified and much of the benefit is already in the operating base.

Caveats: No disclosed TTD-level AI revenue, margin, or EPS contribution; Kokai adoption near 100% means incremental AI uplift may already be embedded in the base; Agentic buying could commoditize DSP interfaces over time; Walled gardens and AI-search platforms may capture more ad budgets directly

AI DISRUPTION / CANNIBALIZATION RISK  two-sided · 4/10

AI is mostly additive for TTD because better bidding, measurement, and automation strengthen the DSP, but AI-native media agents, LLM ad platforms, or large closed ecosystems could compress workflow differentiation or route budgets around independent DSPs. The core model remains durable if TTD keeps its data, identity, CTV, and open-internet integrations relevant.

OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE

option liquidity: good

ATM IV
—
TYPICAL BID-ASK
—
OPEN INTEREST
—

proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $436M · beta 1.096 · px $21.10

source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.

CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE
Mixed — insiders buying, institutions flat, management language 3/10 hedged.
INSIDERS buying 4 open-market buy(s) vs 3 sell(s) — net accumulation
INSTITUTIONS (13F) flat as of 2026-03-31: 109 new / 274 closed positions; 396 increased / 269 reduced; institutional ownership +5.09pp; -180 net 13F holders
MGMT LANGUAGE 3/10 hedged AI is framed mostly as ecosystem optionality and future TAM, with limited concrete ownership beyond Koa usage.
commit “They are investing in and leveraging AI tools like Koa.”
hedge “AI innovations are making the global advertising ecosystem as dynamic and changing as ever.”
hedge “as AI reshapes legacy search.”
VERBATIM AI QUOTES
“The macro conditions plus AI innovations are making the global advertising ecosystem as dynamic and changing as ever.”
— Jeffrey Green, Q1 FY2026
“They are investing in and leveraging AI tools like Koa.”
— Jeffrey Green, Q1 FY2026
“Our partnership is to leverage agentic AI to create, edit and modify campaigns. After these basics, we'll move to agentic optimizations.”
— Jeffrey Green, Q1 FY2026
“Our objective position allows our AI models to evaluate every opportunity on its merits across the entire ecosystem and optimize purely for each advertiser's goal.”
— Jeffrey Green, Q1 FY2026
“We will continue to invest in the areas that matter most to the future of the open Internet, including AI-driven decisioning, retail media, CTV and identity.”
— Jeffrey Green, Q1 FY2026
“During the quarter, we continued to make investments in our team and platform, particularly in areas like platform operations as we optimize our platform infrastructure and implement more AI-powered tools in our platform.”
— Tahnil Davis, Q1 FY2026
“We fundamentally believe that we'll lead the agentic revolution. I do believe that word is not overstating it of programmatic advertising.”
— Jeffrey Green, Q1 FY2026
“AI is changing nearly every industry in the world, directly or indirectly.”
— Jeffrey Green, Q4 FY2025
“First, almost 100% of our clients are running through Kokai today.”
— Jeffrey Green, Q4 FY2025
“We think Kokai is the most advanced AI-fueled buying platform ever pointed at the open Internet.”
— Jeffrey Green, Q4 FY2025
“Every engineer at TTD is using AI tools to write and/or test code. We've injected AI tools across the company and productivity is going up.”
— Jeffrey Green, Q4 FY2025
“We think our business model is more conducive and will benefit more from AI than any of our competitors.”
— Jeffrey Green, Q4 FY2025
“This innovation wasn't possible before advances in AI, particularly Agentic AI in this case, which allows us to surface the right data segment at the right moment.”
— Jeffrey Green, Q4 FY2025
“I don't think there's any company in our industry that is better positioned to take advantage of advances in AI.”
— Jeffrey Green, Q4 FY2025
ANALYST QUESTIONS ON AI
Q (Q1 FY2026, Youssef Squali): You talked in your prepared remarks about LLMs, AI search and the opportunity there. Could you maybe flush that out a little bit for us? What are the gating factors to kind of make -- to start making that a reality and have it start impacting kind of the P&L? How do you see your role within that ecosystem? And where are you in your conversations with the obvious key players there?
A: Jeffrey Green said LLMs, chatbots and AI search companies have expensive content and likely need ad monetization beyond legacy keyword search. He said detailed prompts may support more valuable ads, including video, and that this can unlock TAM for The Trade Desk and the open Internet, but added: "we are in the first inning."
Q (Q1 FY2026, Timothy Nollen): Jeff, you made a reference to Trade Desk being something of a hub in this emerging marketplace. And I'm wondering as the supply path is consolidating or shortening or whatever term you want to use for it, does it make sense for The Trade Desk to remain a fully independent DSP? Since you have the means to go straight to publishers now, is there a scenario where maybe it makes sense to build supply-side services as well? And you didn't really talk about OpenTTD, I don't think on this call, you have in the past. I wonder if that maybe is setting up something like that.
A: Jeffrey Green said OpenTTD is the hub, cited an AI-first company needing Trade Desk data, and argued that AI companies need lots of quality data. He rejected moving into supply-side yield management because it would create conflicts of interest, but said TTD would build tools and tee up AI companies to improve supply-chain efficiency.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Jessica Reif Cohen): Jeff, you said earlier in the call in your prepared remarks, you mentioned the partnership with Stagwell. And it just seems like you wouldn't have broke that up because it wasn't important. So I know it's early days, but when do you think agentic trading will become the dominant dynamic in programmatic media? And how will The Trade Desk be impacted by this?
A: Jeffrey Green said: "We fundamentally believe that we'll lead the agentic revolution." He described agentic AI as a reasoning layer on top of APIs that can create and edit campaigns first, then evolve into optimization, making campaign expansion, targeting and frequency decisions more scalable and productive.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Youssef Squali): Jeff, you talked about AI in your prepared remarks and how it's been a source of innovation on the product side. Can you maybe talk about it on the monetization front? How does Agentic AI change the monetization model potentially for Trade Desk?
A: Jeffrey Green said agentic AI improves monetization by improving decisioning across 20 million ad opportunities per second, making data more powerful, improving performance, client stickiness and go-to-market efforts.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Jason Helfstein): There's a super bear view... that an Agentic future makes brands irrelevant... when folks say, well, do you have the scale when it comes to deploying AI to compete with Amazon, let's say, DV360 on the AI side. So maybe kind of talk about that.
A: Jeffrey Green rejected the view that agentic AI makes brands irrelevant, saying: "Agentic AI, I believe, will be the best thing that ever happened to programmatic advertising." On scale, he said buyer trust and data are the most important ingredients and argued TTD's focused technology and advertiser data can compete with Amazon and Google.