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Auto - Manufacturers · mkt cap $1591.4B · calls: Q1 FY2026 vs Q4 FY2025
67.0 conviction · conf-adj 64
conf 3/10 partial
enthusiasm:30.0 · trend:8 · quantifies:5 · impact:0 · under_radar:0 · credibility:5 · business_impact:10 · disruption:0 · commitment:6 · confirmation:3
Enthusiasm latest 10 / prev 9 (rising)
Tesla's AI thesis is now the core business thesis: vehicles become FSD delivery mechanisms, Robotaxi creates recurring revenue, Optimus becomes a potentially larger product than autos, and in-house AI chips/fabs protect scale. Credibility improved sequentially because management cited realized FSD adoption, Robotaxi city expansion, AI5 tape-out, and more concrete fab plans, but much of the largest revenue impact remains forward-looking and regulator/manufacturing-ramp dependent.
GROUNDED NEXT-FY IMPACT vs CONSENSUS
Grounded on actual base — revenue $94.8B · net income $3.8B · net margin 4.0% · diluted EPS 1.08
These are next-fiscal-year annual uplift estimates, not next-quarter numbers.
Aggregate next-FY est. rev uplift: 0.99% · next-FY EPS uplift: 13.4% · vs analysts: inline · priced in: high (model's call-read: medium; verdict above is the hard-data one used for ranking) · confidence: 3/10
| Claim | Figure | Arithmetic | Next-FY Rev % | Next-FY EPS % |
|---|
FSD new paid users ~180,000/qtr (Q1 FY26)
revenue | 180,000 new paid users/quarter | De-duplicated next-FY FSD uplift. X annualizes the full-year cohort (180k/qtr x4 = 720k FY26 net adds @ ~$2,300 blended/user -> $1.66B = 1.75% rev; @55% incr net margin -> $0.91B/$3.794B NI = 24.0% EPS). Y counts only one quarter's adds with recognition-aware per-user revenue (53.9k upfront @$8,000/7 + 126.1k subs @$99x12 = $211.4M = 0.223% rev; @50% margin = 2.79% EPS). X is sounder on full-year phasing; Y is sounder on per-user revenue recognition. Both defensible -> averaged: ~0.99% rev, ~13.4% EPS (confidence lowered). | 0.99 | 13.4 |
FSD paid customers ~1.3M (Q1 FY26)
engagement · soft | nearly 1.3M cumulative | Cumulative stock, not an incremental flow; YoY delta (1.1M->1.3M) is captured in the 180k new-users entry to avoid double-counting. Existing-customer revenue already sits in the $94.827B base. | | |
FSD paid customers ~1.1M (Q4 FY25)
engagement · soft | nearly 1,100,000 cumulative | Prior-period stock; baseline for the delta already sized in the new-users entry. Not separately additive. | | |
FSD upfront mix ~70% (Q4 FY25)
engagement · soft | ~70% upfront | Revenue-recognition/per-user input (upfront purchases largely deferred over feature delivery); no standalone $ impact. | | |
FSD upfront purchases grew only 7% (Q1 FY26)
engagement · soft | +7% upfront | Signals mix shift toward subscription as upfront option removed in some markets; lowers blended per-user revenue, already reflected in the new-users entry. No standalone uplift. | | |
AI-related CapEx >$20-25B (2026)
other | >$25B / in excess of $20B | Spending, not revenue ($25B = 26% of $94.827B rev). Capitalized then depreciated; ~$25B over ~6yr -> ~$4.2B/yr incremental D&A drag once in service — a bottom-line HEADWIND roughly the size of current NI, not an uplift. | | |
AI research fab ~$3B; few thousand wafers/month
other · soft | $3B-ish; a few thousand wafers/month | Internal R&D/chip capacity ('intended to try out ideas'), not external silicon sales -> not supplier revenue. Capex/opex drag, immaterial volume. No sizeable revenue. | | |
Robotaxi revenue 'material in a significant way next year'
revenue · soft | not super material 2026; material 2027 | Explicitly unanchored ('material', no $/units/price); mgmt says FY26 not super material. Per guardrail, do not invent a number. | | |
Robotaxi fleet 'well over 500'; 'double every month'
revenue · soft | >500 vehicles; ~2x/month | Fleet count without per-vehicle fare/utilization disclosure; converting to $ would be invention. | | |
Robotaxi expand to a dozen+ states; autonomous in 1/4-1/2 of US by EOY
revenue · soft | dozen+ states; 25-50% of US (pending regulatory approval) | Geographic intent gated on regulatory approval; no revenue figure or take-rate attached. | | |
Unsupervised FSD customer timing (Q4 FY26)
other · soft | fourth quarter | Q4 timing implies at most a partial-year FY26 contribution, but no price, adoption, or launch volume quantified. | | |
Optimus goal 1M units/year (long-term)
revenue · soft | 1,000,000 units/yr capacity | No timeframe ('long-term'), no price, no near-FY phasing. Cannot attribute to next FY. | | |
CyberCab to outproduce all other vehicles combined; 50-60 hrs/wk duty cycle
productivity · soft | far more CyberCabs than all others; 50-60 hrs/wk vs 10-11 | Utilization midpoint ~55/10.5 = 5.2x driven-vehicle hours, but long-run product-mix framing 'over time' with no near-FY units/price/revenue. | | |
FSD fleet ~10B miles; HW3 vs HW4 1/8 memory bandwidth
other · soft | ~10B miles; 1/8 bandwidth | Capability/data-scale and hardware metrics with no financial figure attached. | | |
Assumptions: Tax rate 21%. FSD treated as high-margin software; incremental NET margin taken at ~52% (avg of X's 55% and Y's 50%), reflecting near-zero incremental COGS on developed software. FSD uplift sized two ways and averaged: X's full-year 720k FY26 net adds at a blended ~$2,300/user vs Y's recognition-aware single-quarter cohort (upfront $8,000 recognized over 7yr + subscription $99/mo); X is sounder on full-year phasing, Y on per-user revenue recognition -> figures averaged and confidence lowered. Phasing: only next-FY incremental adds counted; cumulative stock (1.1M/1.3M) excluded to avoid double-counting. AI CapEx and the research fab treated as cost/investment (future D&A drag), not revenue. Robotaxi/Optimus/CyberCab unanchored -> null. Tesla sells AI into its OWN vehicles/services, not as external compute/chips -> no supplier-side revenue.
Top line: Adopter-side AI revenue that is actually sizeable rests on one hard figure: FSD adoption (180k new paid users/qtr, ~1.1M->~1.3M). Annualizing to ~720k FY26 net adds at a conservative blended ~$2,300/user gives ~$1.66B incremental FSD revenue = ~1.75% of the $94.827B base. Robotaxi, Optimus, and CyberCab are explicitly vague ('material next year', 'a dozen states', '1M units long-term') and are not dollar-anchored, so they add narrative optionality but no countable topline. The ~$25B AI CapEx is spend, not supplier revenue — Tesla is not selling AI compute.
Bottom line: Because the net margin base is only 4.0%, high-margin FSD software has outsized EPS leverage: ~$1.66B incremental rev x ~55% incremental net margin = ~$0.91B, which is ~24% of the $3.794B net income base. But this nearly equals the ENTIRE consensus FY26 net-income increment (+$0.83B), and it is offset on the same line by the AI CapEx: ~$25B depreciated over ~6 years is ~$4.2B/yr of incremental D&A once in service — larger than current net income. Net-net the FSD tailwind and AI-capex depreciation drag roughly cancel, which is why consensus EPS rises only modestly (1.66->1.90).
Consensus already bakes FY26 revenue +$7.92B (+8.4%) and net income +$0.83B vs FY25 actual. The sized FSD adopter uplift (~$1.66B rev, ~$0.91B NI) is ~21% of the consensus revenue increment and ~110% of the consensus NI increment — i.e. it is consistent with, not clearly above, what the 25 analysts assume, and the consensus NI step is muted precisely because the ~$4.2B/yr AI-capex depreciation drag eats most of the FSD bottom-line gain. The math does not point clearly above consensus on the hard figures; the upside that could move it (robotaxi/Optimus) is exactly the part that is unquantified.
MODEL CONSENSUS (impact)
partial
Agree Tesla is adopter-only, no supplier revenue, and all robotaxi/Optimus/CyberCab claims are soft. Core conflict is FSD sizing magnitude; averaged with low confidence.
Conflicts reconciled
- est_rev_uplift_pct: X=1.75 vs Y=0.223 -> used 0.99 (avg); X right on full-year 720k phasing, Y right on recognition-aware per-user revenue, both defensible
- est_eps_uplift_pct: X=24.0 vs Y=2.786 -> used 13.4 (avg of the two margin/phasing methods)
- incr net margin: X=55% vs Y=50% -> used 52% (avg)
- priced_in: X implies low vs Y implies high -> used medium and lowered confidence given the wide methodological gap
| Field | Opus 4.8 | GPT-5.5 |
|---|
| Rev uplift % | 1.75 | 0.222939 |
| EPS uplift % | 24.0 | 2.786067 |
| Priced in | medium | high |
| vs analysts | inline | behind |
| Confidence | 4 | 5 |
| Top line | Adopter-side AI revenue that is actually sizeable rests on one hard figure: FSD adoption (180k new paid users/qtr, ~1.1M->~1.3M). Annualizing to ~720k FY26 net adds at a conservative blended ~$2,300/user gives ~$1.66B incremental FSD revenue = ~1.75% of the $94.827B base. Robotaxi, Optimus, and CyberCab are explicitly vague ('material next year', 'a dozen states', '1M units long-term') and are not dollar-anchored, so they add narrative optionality but no countable topline. The ~$25B AI CapEx is spend, not supplier revenue — Tesla is not selling AI compute. | The de-duplicated hard next-FY adopter uplift is the FSD Q1 net adds: $211.4M incremental annualized revenue, equal to 0.223% of $94.827B. The broader Q1 FSD paid base implies a $1.507B annualized run-rate, or 1.589% of revenue, but much of that is already embedded in the FY2025 base. |
| Bottom line | Because the net margin base is only 4.0%, high-margin FSD software has outsized EPS leverage: ~$1.66B incremental rev x ~55% incremental net margin = ~$0.91B, which is ~24% of the $3.794B net income base. But this nearly equals the ENTIRE consensus FY26 net-income increment (+$0.83B), and it is offset on the same line by the AI CapEx: ~$25B depreciated over ~6 years is ~$4.2B/yr of incremental D&A once in service — larger than current net income. Net-net the FSD tailwind and AI-capex depreciation drag roughly cancel, which is why consensus EPS rises only modestly (1.66->1.90). | $211.4M of incremental FSD revenue at 50% incremental net margin gives $105.7M incremental net income, or 2.786% of current $3.794B net income. AI CapEx of $25B+ is very large at 26.364% of current revenue, but it is a cash-flow/capital-intensity burden rather than a direct EPS uplift. |
| Reasoning | Consensus already bakes FY26 revenue +$7.92B (+8.4%) and net income +$0.83B vs FY25 actual. The sized FSD adopter uplift (~$1.66B rev, ~$0.91B NI) is ~21% of the consensus revenue increment and ~110% of the consensus NI increment — i.e. it is consistent with, not clearly above, what the 25 analysts assume, and the consensus NI step is muted precisely because the ~$4.2B/yr AI-capex depreciation drag eats most of the FSD bottom-line gain. The math does not point clearly above consensus on the hard figures; the upside that could move it (robotaxi/Optimus) is exactly the part that is unquantified. | FY2026 consensus implies revenue growth of 8.355% versus the hard de-duplicated AI revenue uplift of 0.223%. Consensus EPS growth is 76.268% versus the hard FSD EPS uplift of 2.786%; consensus net income growth is 21.814%. FY2027 consensus revenue growth versus the base is 24.407% and EPS growth is 125.553%, leaving room for robotaxi/Optimus optionality, but management's quantified claims do not provide dollars to show upside beyond consensus. |
Rows highlighted where the two models disagreed.
QUANTIFICATIONS
FSD paid customers: nearly 1.3 million (Q1 FY2026, topline)
“On the FSD adoption front, we continue to see improvement, reaching nearly 1.3 million paid customers globally.”
FSD paid customers: nearly 1,100,000 (Q4 FY2025, topline)
“FSD adoption continued to improve in the quarter, reaching nearly 1,100,000 paid customers globally.”
FSD upfront-purchase mix: nearly 70% (Q4 FY2025, topline)
“Of these, nearly 70% were upfront purchases.”
FSD new paid users: 180,000 (Q1 FY2026, topline)
“So you have 180,000 new users, paying users this quarter.”
FSD upfront purchases growth: 7% (Q1 FY2026, topline)
“The bulk of the growth came from subscriptions, while upfront purchases only increased 7% as we remove the purchase option in some markets in Q1.”
AI-related CapEx: over $25 billion of CapEx (2026, both)
“So based on that, our current expectation for 2025 -- 2026 is over $25 billion of CapEx.”
AI-related CapEx: in excess of $20 billion (2026, both)
“At the moment, we are expecting that CapEx would be in excess of $20 billion.”
Robotaxi geographic expansion: a dozen states or more (later this year, topline)
“we'll expand to, like I said, probably a dozen states or more later this year.”
Unsupervised FSD customer timing: fourth quarter (Q4 FY2026, topline)
“I'm just guessing here, but probably in the fourth quarter.”
Robotaxi revenue materiality: not super material this year; material probably in a significant way next year (2026-2027, topline)
“I think probably unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi revenue would not be super material this year. But I do think it will be material -- it will be material probably in a significant way next year.”
Optimus production capacity goal: a million units a year (long-term, topline)
“with a long-term goal of having a million units a year of Optimus robots in the current SX space in Fremont.”
AI research fab cost and capacity: $3 billion-ish; a few thousand wafers per month (near term, both)
“This is something we expect to be probably a $3 billion-ish initiative and capable of maybe a few thousand wafers per month, but it's really intended to try out ideas.”
CyberCab share of production: far more CyberCabs than all of our other vehicles combined (over time, topline)
“We would expect over time to make far more CyberCabs than all of our other vehicles combined.”
Autonomous-vehicle duty cycle: fifty or sixty hours a week (future autonomous vehicle use, both)
“You would expect CyberCab to be used probably fifty or sixty hours a week instead of the ten or eleven hours a week that a driven vehicle is used.”
Autonomous coverage: between a quarter and half of the United States (by the end of the year, topline)
“We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval.”
Robotaxi fleet: well over 500 (Q4 FY2025 call, topline)
“In terms of taxi vehicles carrying paid customers, I think we're well over 500 at this point between the Bay Area and Austin.”
Robotaxi fleet growth: double every month (future, topline)
“This will probably double every month type of thing.”
FSD fleet data: close to driving 10 billion miles on FSD (next few weeks, both)
“monitoring the metrics across the entire Tesla customer vehicle fleet, which is close to driving 10 billion miles on FSD in the next few weeks”
Hardware 3 vs Hardware 4 memory bandwidth: 1/8 of the memory bandwidth (current hardware capability, both)
“but relative to hardware 4, it has only 1/8 of the memory bandwidth of hardware 4.”
PAST (realized)
- We've expanded Robotaxi to Dallas in Houston using the same software source in the Bay Area.
- The -- congratulations to -- again to the Tesla AI chip team for taping out AI5.
- In the last couple of weeks, we started unsupervised robotaxis service to public customers in Austin.
- FSD adoption continued to improve in the quarter, reaching nearly 1,100,000 paid customers globally.
- We were able to do our first rides with no safety monitor in the car in Austin.
CURRENT (now)
- So we're investing in and improving our core technologies, battery powertrain, AI software, AI training, chip design, manufacturing -- laying the groundwork for significantly increased manufacturing production.
- On the FSD adoption front, we continue to see improvement, reaching nearly 1.3 million paid customers globally.
- Our spend on AI-related initiatives, including expense on development of our own AI5 chip and new products like Cybercab, Semi, Optimus and Megablock, et cetera, continue to be at elevated levels, and we expect this trend to continue for the full year 2026.
- We are making deliberate investments in the infrastructure to help the Robotaxi in the future.
- We already use the AI4 chips in our data centers.
FORWARD (guidance)
- I think Optimus will be our biggest product -- not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever.
- And then there's a version 15, hopefully later this -- hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year.
- I do think it will be material -- it will be material probably in a significant way next year.
- We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval.
- I really think long-term, the only vehicles that we'll make will be autonomous vehicles with the exception of the next generation Roadster which we're hoping to debut in April.
TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY
50/100 track record mixed 6 calls reviewed
Tesla reliably delivers its narrow near-term autonomy launch milestones (the June 2025 Austin robotaxi launch), but consistently misses or quietly slips the quantified scale and timing targets — Optimus unit counts, robotaxi geographic coverage, and the date autonomy becomes financially material. Credible on 'we'll launch X in city Y,' unreliable on 'how many' and 'how fast it scales.'
Launch unsupervised/no-driver paid robotaxi in Austin in June 2025 — promised Q4 FY2024
delivered Austin robotaxi launched in June 2025 with paying customers and no one in the driver seat; the narrow launch milestone hit, though full removal of all safety monitors slipped later
Build several thousand Optimus robots doing useful work in factories by end of 2025 (internal plan ~10,000) — promised Q4 FY2024
missed By Q1 FY2026 production had not started; later calls shifted to Optimus 3 prototypes and Fremont line conversion with no 2025 unit count reported
Autonomous ride-hailing addressing ~half the US population by end of 2025 — promised Q2 FY2025
missed Q4 FY2025 reset to a quarter-to-half of the US by end-2026; the 2025 half-population goal slipped materially
Operate robotaxi in ~8-10 metro areas by end of 2025 — promised Q3 FY2025
missed Only ~2-5 metros reached by Q1 FY2026; Q4 FY2025 reset expectations to dozens of cities by end-2026
Reach 1 million Optimus units per year by ~2029-2030 — promised Q1 FY2025
too-early Subsequent calls reiterated the 1M-unit goal and factory plans, but the target date is still years away
Robotaxi/autonomy to move the financial needle materially by mid-2026 — promised Q1 FY2025
quietly-dropped Q1 FY2026 walked this back: 'not super material this year,' now expected to be material next year (2027)
PRICED-IN (REFINED)
HIGH (already in)Est. revisions rising · Fwd P/E 256.0 · EV/Sales 16.2x
AI claim maps to Automotive, Services And Other
Analyst ratings have migrated upward since late 2025, with buy plus strong-buy counts rising and sell counts falling, while forward revenue and EPS estimates already embed growth through 2027. Price targets are not clearly rising, but the valuation is extremely rich at about 256x forward EPS and 16.2x EV/sales. Tesla AI upside would most directly flow through Automotive and Services And Other via autonomy, software, and related service revenue. Rising estimates make the AI thesis more priced-in, and the stretched valuation points to a high priced-in verdict.
COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS
9Q4 FY20249Q1 FY202510Q2 FY202510Q3 FY202510Q4 FY202510Q1 FY2026
AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend ↗ rising
Already central, the AI story gained proof points: paid robotaxi, broader FSD adoption, Optimus factories, custom chips, and production strategy.
RECENT AI CATALYSTS & NEWS
BUSINESS IMPACT - QUALITATIVE MATERIALITY
9/10 qualitative impact transformational medium-term · mixed evidence
Where AI matters: FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus and AI-enabled vehicle economics
AI is central to Tesla's own product roadmap: FSD has nearly 1.3M paid customers, autonomy can shift cars from one-time hardware sales toward high-margin software/ride revenue, and Optimus could open a new automation market. The hard near-term uplift is still mostly FSD, while Robotaxi and Optimus remain large but execution- and regulation-dependent.
Caveats: Robotaxi revenue explicitly not material in 2026; Repeated misses on Optimus and autonomy scale timelines; Regulatory approval and safety constraints could slow rollout; Hardware 3 limitations create retrofit/customer satisfaction risk
AI DISRUPTION / CANNIBALIZATION RISK two-sided · 3/10
AI is mostly additive for Tesla, but successful autonomy could cannibalize private vehicle ownership and shift value from car units to fleet utilization, while rival autonomy stacks could commoditize EV hardware. Tesla is better positioned than most automakers because it is trying to own the disrupting layer, not just sell into it.
OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE
option liquidity: good
proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $25.8B · beta 1.793 · px $423.74
source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.
CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE
Mixed — insiders selling, institutions adding, management language 7/10 committed.
INSIDERS selling 64 open-market sell(s) vs 0 buy(s) — net distribution
INSTITUTIONS (13F) adding as of 2026-03-31: 191 new / 381 closed positions; 2215 increased / 1455 reduced; institutional ownership -0.88pp; -196 net 13F holders
MGMT LANGUAGE 7/10 committed Large AI capex and product rollouts are concrete, but timelines still rely on probably/hopefully and regulatory gates.
commit “We're further increasing our investment in AI-related initiatives, including the AI infrastructure to support Robotaxi and the launch of Optimus.”
commit “we continue to see improvement, reaching nearly 1.3 million paid customers globally.”
commit “we've already started placing orders for the research semiconductor fab in Austin”
VERBATIM AI QUOTES
“So we're investing in and improving our core technologies, battery powertrain, AI software, AI training, chip design, manufacturing -- laying the groundwork for significantly increased manufacturing production.”
— Elon Musk, Q1 FY2026
“As you've heard me say a few times, I think Optimus will be our biggest product -- not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever.”
— Elon Musk, Q1 FY2026
“For full self-driving and Robotaxi, version 14.3 was a major architectural update.”
— Elon Musk, Q1 FY2026
“We've expanded Robotaxi to Dallas in Houston using the same software source in the Bay Area.”
— Elon Musk, Q1 FY2026
“The -- congratulations to -- again to the Tesla AI chip team for taping out AI5. That's going to be a great chip. I think probably the best AI inference chip for edge compute that exists.”
— Elon Musk, Q1 FY2026
“On the FSD adoption front, we continue to see improvement, reaching nearly 1.3 million paid customers globally.”
— Vaibhav Taneja, Q1 FY2026
“With all this in mind, we have evolved our vehicle sales strategy, where we now emphasize FSD as a product and vehicle as only the delivery mechanism.”
— Vaibhav Taneja, Q1 FY2026
“We're further increasing our investment in AI-related initiatives, including the AI infrastructure to support Robotaxi and the launch of Optimus.”
— Vaibhav Taneja, Q1 FY2026
“We are really moving into a future that is based on autonomy.”
— Elon Musk, Q4 FY2025
“As we increase vehicle autonomy and begin to produce Optimus robots at scale, we are making very big investments.”
— Elon Musk, Q4 FY2025
“It might potentially provide an opportunity for a lot of customers to earn more lending their car to the fleet than their lease cost to Tesla.”
— Elon Musk, Q4 FY2025
“This Optimus really will be a general-purpose robot that can learn by observing human behavior.”
— Elon Musk, Q4 FY2025
“FSD adoption continued to improve in the quarter, reaching nearly 1,100,000 paid customers globally.”
— Vaibhav Taneja, Q4 FY2025
“In autonomy, software will be the driver for growth from now.”
— Vaibhav Taneja, Q4 FY2025
“Completing the AI5 chip design and having it be a great chip is arguably the number one most critical thing to get done, which is why I'm spending more time on that than currently anything else at Tesla.”
— Elon Musk, Q4 FY2025
ANALYST QUESTIONS ON AI
Q (Q1 FY2026, say.com): what milestones are you targeting for unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi expansion beyond Austin this year? And how will that drive recurring revenue?
A: Well, we certainly hope to be -- have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know -- it does [indiscernible] states by the end of this year. Initially, we're taking it very -- we're taking a very cautious approach to the rollout here. Like we haven't had any injuries and certainly no fatalities to date with the unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi expansion. We want to keep it that way. And so I don't -- I think probably unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi revenue would not be super material this year. But I do think it will be material -- it will be material probably in a significant way next year.
Q (Q1 FY2026, say.com): when do you expect FSD unsupervised to reach customer cars?
A: I'm just guessing here, but probably in the fourth quarter.
Q (Q1 FY2026, say.com): how will hardware 3 cars reach unsupervised FSD?
A: Unfortunately, hardware 3 -- I wish it were otherwise, but hardware 3 simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD.
Q (Q1 FY2026, say.com): what enabled you to finish the AI5 tape out early? And were there any changes to the original vision? Last week, Elon said AI5 will go into Optimus and the supercomputer, but 1 month ago said it would go into the robotaxi. Has AI5 been dropped from the vehicle road map?
A: Yes, I do expect that AI5 will go into Optimus and into the data center because it's looking like we'll be able to achieve unsupervised self-driving with AI4 that is far greater than human safety levels.
Q (Q1 FY2026, William Stein): Considering the various parties involved in the Terafab project, I'm hoping you can provide some details for investors about which party is going to take responsibility for each aspect of that project, funding it, designing it, building it, operating, taking production and the like.
A: In the near term, Tesla will be building the research fab on our Giga Texas campus. This is something we expect to be probably a $3 billion-ish initiative and capable of maybe a few thousand wafers per month, but it's really intended to try out ideas.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Pierre Ferragu): A quick one first on FSD adoption. So you have 180,000 new users, paying users this quarter.
A: Yes. I think you're thinking about it the right way, Pierre. And the other thing which I'll share is that you can't just look at 1 quarter versus the other quarter in terms of churn, but we are actually seeing churn of subscribers also coming down, which again is a reflection of the product is getting better.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Pierre Ferragu): it's more on the Optimus architecture. And you talked about the partnership with xAI and Grok, and I was wondering if you can share with us anything about how the system to intelligence is going to be implemented?
A: So I think you need kind of an orchestration AI, which Grok would be good for orchestration. And then for Optimus' voice, having a low-latency intelligent voice AI, Grok is actually very good for that.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Dan Levy): how much of Terafab is also motivated to get better economics on your midterm chip purchases? And how long is it going to take to ramp to get to a yield that achieves that type of economic parity?
A: No. I mean Terafab is not some sort of mechanism to generate leverage over our chip suppliers. It's just literally, we don't see a path to having enough efficient quantity of AI chips down the road.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Mark Delaney): I recognize the importance of FSD and that FSD can help to drive vehicle sales and see some of the improvements in the FSD technology more recently with version 14. However, I'm also hoping to understand if the companies you on new vehicle models has evolved.
A: Then over time, it's going to make sense for our whole lineup to be autonomous vehicles of different sizes.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Colin Langan): What are the key safety metrics that you're tracking that gives you confidence that Robotaxi is safe enough to expand? Is it sort of miles per intervention, miles per accident, per fatality? And where do you stand on that now?
A: We track basically all the metrics that you mentioned.
Q (Q4 FY2025, say.com): What is the current bottleneck to increased Robotaxi deployment and personal use unsupervised FSD?
A: By the end of last year, we had a long tail of issues that we were able to churn through, and then in the last couple of weeks, we started unsupervised robotaxis service to public customers in Austin.
Q (Q4 FY2025, say.com): Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla and actively performing production tasks?
A: It's still in the R&D phase. We have had Optimus do some basic tasks in the factory.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Emmanuel Rosner): You signal a pretty large increase to over $20 billion for this year. Was hoping to better understand where the investments are going.
A: Then as we are trying to scale Optimus, we need a lot more compute. We're putting more money towards compute as well. And then for training.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Andrew): I just want to start on the DXAI investment that you guys announced today. You talked about there being some collaboration between the companies.
A: But Grok will be, I think, very helpful in, say, maximizing the efficiency of the management of a large autonomous fleet.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Dan Levi): Given the very tight supply, are there any near-term constraints on procuring memory?
A: Well, at Tesla, the Tesla AI is very compute efficient and very memory efficient.
Q (Q4 FY2025, George Gianarikas): There's been a surge of startups, particularly from China entering the humanoid market. I'm wondering what the long-term competitive advantages that keep Tesla ahead are and how based on what you've seen will Optimus fundamentally differ from these competitors?
A: We think Optimus will be much more capable than any robot that we are aware of under development in China.