OSK · Oshkosh Corporation

Industrial - Machinery · mkt cap $8.2B · calls: Q1 FY2026 vs Q4 FY2025

49.0 conviction · conf-adj 49

conf –

enthusiasm:21.0 · trend:-5 · quantifies:0 · impact:0 · under_radar:14 · credibility:12 · business_impact:4 · disruption:0 · commitment:0 · confirmation:3

Enthusiasm latest 7 / prev 8 (falling)

Oshkosh’s AI story is product-led autonomy and computer-vision/analytics at the job site, airport, and curb—not a corporate AI revenue line. Q4 FY2025 centered on CES (CAMS collision-avoidance field tests, refuse contamination AI planned for Q1, welding/perimeter/airport autonomy concepts); Q1 FY2026 shifted to execution (McNeilus IQ contamination detection launched, ConExpo autonomy demos, Canvas acquisition for JLG autonomy) with less airtime and no financial metrics. Credibility is moderate on pilots and one commercial launch, but management never quantifies AI’s P&L impact and no analyst pressed the topic in either call.

PAST (realized)

Q4 FY2025 — John Pfeifer: Following a strong response to our showing this technology at CES last year, we have been field testing the AI-powered solution with fire departments in large cities over the past year, and the feedback has been powerful.
Q4 FY2025 — John Pfeifer: We have trialed a perimeter detection robot at airports and are optimistic about our ability to commercialize this technology in the coming years and expand it to other applications.
Q4 FY2025 — John Pfeifer: You already see our autonomous jet docking and autonomous cargo loading. Being deployed right now in so production, so to speak, meaning at gates.
Q1 FY2026 — John Pfeifer: I think we bought Canvas and Canvas is a really important part of JLG's autonomy strategy.

CURRENT (now)

Q1 FY2026 — John Pfeifer: At McNeilus, we launched our AI-enabled material contamination detection technology as part of our McNeilus IQ platform. This solution leverages artificial intelligence and advanced analytics to identify contaminants in real-time during collection, helping customers improve efficiency and sustainability.
Q1 FY2026 — John Pfeifer: We also highlighted advancements incorporating autonomy, including canvas robotics for drywall finishing and our robotic welding end effector both of which generated strong customer interest as companies look for solutions to address labor constraints and improve job site efficiency.
Q1 FY2026 — John Pfeifer: We launched the contamination detection technology in Q1, very positive initial feedback on that technology.

FORWARD (guidance)

Q1 FY2026 — John Pfeifer: We expect to continue expanding our McNeilus IQ offering with additional technologies over time.
Q1 FY2026 — John Pfeifer: The technology that we build into our products, which is right in line with what our customers really want us to do, whether it's autonomous operation or it's embedding AI or in some cases, still when it makes sense, electrification, that's all part of why we're so bullish on 28.
Q4 FY2025 — John Pfeifer: We are working on scaling this safety platform to support everyday heroes, such as EMS crews at accident scenes, police officers managing traffic or responding to calls, and even tow truck operators assisting motorists.
Q4 FY2025 — John Pfeifer: We have trialed a perimeter detection robot at airports and are optimistic about our ability to commercialize this technology in the coming years and expand it to other applications.
Q4 FY2025 — John Pfeifer: We're excited about the refuse contamination detection and service technology that we displayed at CES. Which we plan to launch in the first quarter.
Q4 FY2025 — John Pfeifer: We look forward to the CONEXPO show in March, we'll be announcing new products and demonstrating our boom lift with robotic end effector concept that was such a hit at CES earlier this month.
Q4 FY2025 — John Pfeifer: There's a lot more technology to come.

TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY

92/100 track record delivers 6 calls reviewed

Across six calls Oshkosh talked up autonomy, connectivity, and AI heavily but almost never set numeric, dated AI targets; the one explicit pledge—14-type contamination AI launching in Q1 FY2026—was delivered on schedule.

Launch AI/onboard edge contamination detection identifying 14 waste-stream contaminant types in Q1 — promised Q4 FY2025
delivered In Q1 FY2026 management said McNeilus IQ AI material contamination detection launched and identifies contaminants in real time during collection.

PRICED-IN (REFINED)

LOW (room left)

Est. revisions flat · Fwd P/E 12.7 · EV/Sales 0.9x

AI claim maps to Access Equipment, Commercial, Defense

Analyst ratings are stable (roughly 11 buys vs 7–8 holds; sells faded to zero) without a clear upgrade wave, and price targets dipped slightly (last month $167.67 vs last quarter $169.67) while forward EPS peaks in FY2024 then eases in FY2025—no strong revision momentum baking in AI-driven growth. Valuation is not stretched at ~12.7x forward P/E and ~0.9x EV/Sales for a mature industrial, so the multiple is not paying up for an AI narrative. AI efficiency/revenue claims would most plausibly flow through manufacturing-heavy segments (Access Equipment, Commercial, Defense), where consensus still implies only modest, flattish revenue—leaving room for surprise if AI materializes.

COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS

7Q4 FY20245Q1 FY20254Q2 FY20256Q3 FY20258Q4 FY20257Q1 FY2026

AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend ↗ rising

CES-driven AI peaked after mid-period lulls; story matured from concepts to field-tested CAMS and commercial McNeilus IQ launch.

RECENT AI CATALYSTS & NEWS

BUSINESS IMPACT - QUALITATIVE MATERIALITY

6/10 qualitative impact moderate medium-term · mixed evidence

Where AI matters: embedded autonomy & vision in vehicles

Oshkosh credibly embeds AI/autonomy in products (McNeilus IQ contamination launch, airport cargo/docking autonomy, defense ROGUE-Fires) to solve labor and safety pain points, but management never ties this to segment revenue or margin and most lines remain pilots or niche deployments.

Caveats: No disclosed Rev/EPS uplift—AI may stay a feature narrative; Access/Commercial cyclicality can swamp product-tech differentiation; Autonomy modules may commoditize via third-party stacks over time

AI DISRUPTION / CANNIBALIZATION RISK tailwind · 2/10

The model is selling engineered specialty vehicles and defense platforms, not billable hours or content; AI augments safety, autonomy, and fleet efficiency rather than replacing the physical asset customers must still buy and maintain.

OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE

option liquidity: fair

ATM IV

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TYPICAL BID-ASK

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OPEN INTEREST

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proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $94M · beta 1.333 · px $131.81

source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.

CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE

Mixed — insiders selling, institutions adding, management language 5/10 measured.

INSIDERS selling 3 open-market sell(s) vs 0 buy(s) — net distribution

INSTITUTIONS (13F) adding as of 2026-03-31: 111 new / 82 closed positions; 321 increased / 177 reduced; institutional ownership -7.69pp; +34 net 13F holders

MGMT LANGUAGE 5/10 measured Brief AI focus: launched McNeilus IQ detection is firm; roadmap expansion is soft; no AI revenue or timeline figures.

commit “At McNeilus, we launched our AI-enabled material contamination detection technology as part of our McNeilus IQ platform.”

commit “This solution leverages artificial intelligence and advanced analytics to identify contaminants in real-time during collection”

commit “advancements incorporating autonomy, including canvas robotics for drywall finishing and our robotic welding end effector both of which generated strong customer interest”

VERBATIM AI QUOTES

“We also highlighted advancements incorporating autonomy, including canvas robotics for drywall finishing and our robotic welding end effector both of which generated strong customer interest as companies look for solutions to address labor constraints and improve job site efficiency.”
— John Pfeifer, Q1 FY2026

“At McNeilus, we launched our AI-enabled material contamination detection technology as part of our McNeilus IQ platform. This solution leverages artificial intelligence and advanced analytics to identify contaminants in real-time during collection, helping customers improve efficiency and sustainability. We expect to continue expanding our McNeilus IQ offering with additional technologies over time.”
— John Pfeifer, Q1 FY2026

“we are investing in technology that customers really care about. We launched the contamination detection technology in Q1, very positive initial feedback on that technology.”
— John Pfeifer, Q1 FY2026

“we've done some smaller technology deals recently. I think we bought Canvas and Canvas is a really important part of JLG's autonomy strategy.”
— John Pfeifer, Q1 FY2026

“The technology that we build into our products, which is right in line with what our customers really want us to do, whether it's autonomous operation or it's embedding AI or in some cases, still when it makes sense, electrification, that's all part of why we're so bullish on 28.”
— John Pfeifer, Q1 FY2026

“Our vision for the airport of the future, the job site of the future, and the neighborhood of the future incorporates robotics, autonomy, AI connectivity, and electrification which we highlighted at our booth.”
— John Pfeifer, Q4 FY2025

“visitors to our booth saw our concept for a welding robot that utilized a JLG boom lift coupled with autonomous scissor lifts, AI software, and sensing technologies. This concept highlighted our strategy to shift from providing equipment that enables jobs at height to offering equipment that executes jobs autonomously.”
— John Pfeifer, Q4 FY2025

“We have trialed a perimeter detection robot at airports and are optimistic about our ability to commercialize this technology in the coming years and expand it to other applications.”
— John Pfeifer, Q4 FY2025

“we demonstrated how our equipment and technology, including the autonomous jet dock, modular runway robots, and IOPS software, work together in any weather to deliver the perfect turn for airlines, airports, and travelers.”
— John Pfeifer, Q4 FY2025

“Following a strong response to our showing this technology at CES last year, we have been field testing the AI-powered solution with fire departments in large cities over the past year, and the feedback has been powerful. We are working on scaling this safety platform to support everyday heroes, such as EMS crews at accident scenes, police officers managing traffic or responding to calls, and even tow truck operators assisting motorists.”
— John Pfeifer, Q4 FY2025

“CAMS is the first purpose-built technology to anticipate collisions for firefighters and others on active roadways.”
— John Pfeifer, Q4 FY2025

“We're excited about the refuse contamination detection and service technology that we displayed at CES. Which we plan to launch in the first quarter. This technology uses AI and onboard edge computing to identify 14 different types of contaminants so customers can identify contamination in their waste streams, in order to reduce the amount of recyclables going to landfills.”
— John Pfeifer, Q4 FY2025

“We look forward to the CONEXPO show in March, we'll be announcing new products and demonstrating our boom lift with robotic end effector concept that was such a hit at CES earlier this month.”
— John Pfeifer, Q4 FY2025

“You already see our autonomous jet docking and autonomous cargo loading. Being deployed right now in so production, so to speak, meaning at gates. There's a lot more technology to come.”
— John Pfeifer, Q4 FY2025