← back to ranking

OKLO · Oklo Inc.

Regulated Electric · mkt cap $12.7B · calls: Q1 FY2026 vs Q4 FY2025
0.0 conviction

Enthusiasm latest 7 / prev 1 (rising)

AI accelerates reactor/fuel design; sells power to AI data centers.

PAST (realized)
CURRENT (now)
FORWARD (guidance)
TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY

/100 (no quantified promises)   no-quantified-promises  7 calls reviewed

Across Q3 FY2024 through Q1 FY2026, Oklo never issued a numbered, time-bound commitment to deliver its own AI/ML, autonomy, or intelligent-automation capabilities; AI appears mainly as data-center power demand and policy context. Later NVIDIA and INL AI-engineering partnerships were announced without earlier measurable targets, so promise-versus-delivery on AI cannot be scored.

PRICED-IN (REFINED)
MEDIUM

Est. revisions falling  ·  Fwd P/E -117.3  ·  EV/Sales 0.0x

Analyst price targets have stepped down sharply (lastYearAvg $112.69 → lastQuarterAvg $102 → lastMonthAvg $80) while forward EPS losses deepen (-$0.61 to -$0.83), outweighing modest rating-count upgrades (more buys but more holds recently). Valuation is stretched for fundamentals: ~$12.5B market cap and ~$10.9B EV with negligible TTM revenue, negative P/E, and psTTM/ev_sales at 0. Segment mapping is unavailable (null product/geo revenue), so any AI-driven efficiency would flow to consolidated revenue once commercial, not a separate reported line. Per the framework, rich optionality pricing plus flat/falling revisions is mixed—not fully chased by rising estimates (which would imply high), but not cheap enough for low.
COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS
5Q4 FY20243Q1 FY20255Q2 FY20254Q3 FY20256Q4 FY20255Q1 FY2026

AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend → flat

AI framed as external power demand and policy; later Meta and build-out, not Oklo-owned ML or automation.

RECENT AI CATALYSTS & NEWS
OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE

option liquidity: good

ATM IV
TYPICAL BID-ASK
OPEN INTEREST

proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $878M · beta 1.181 · px $71.60

source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.

CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE
Mixed — insiders selling, institutions adding, management language 5/10 measured.
INSIDERS selling 44 open-market sell(s) vs 0 buy(s) — net distribution
INSTITUTIONS (13F) adding as of 2026-03-31: 131 new / 145 closed positions; 415 increased / 172 reduced; institutional ownership +11.15pp; -16 net 13F holders
MGMT LANGUAGE 5/10 measured AI appears only via announced partnerships; concrete actions but heavy potential/can-help framing, no metrics or rollout timelines.
commit “we announced a strategic partnership project with Battelle Energy Alliance and Idaho National Laboratory for an industry-leading initiative to integrate AI into reactor and fuel system design”
commit “The collaboration supports AI-enabled modeling, digital twins and validation work for plutonium bearing fuels.”
hedge “We see this collaboration as a potential key strategic enabler because it brings together Oklo's fast reactor platform, NVIDIA's AI infrastructure and Los Alamos' fuel and materials expertise.”
VERBATIM AI QUOTES
“And with Project Pluto, we announced a strategic partnership project with Battelle Energy Alliance and Idaho National Laboratory for an industry-leading initiative to integrate AI into reactor and fuel system design.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“And we also announced a collaboration with NVIDIA in Los Alamos National Laboratory to support fuel validation work for plutonium bearing fuels.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“We see this collaboration as a potential key strategic enabler because it brings together Oklo's fast reactor platform, NVIDIA's AI infrastructure and Los Alamos' fuel and materials expertise.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“The collaboration supports AI-enabled modeling, digital twins and validation work for plutonium bearing fuels.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“The broader significance is that AI can help accelerate nuclear development, while nuclear can provide firm power for AI infrastructure.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“In this case, the collaboration links Advanced Nuclear Power, AI-enabled research and nuclear fuel R&D, and it supports the technical foundation for plutonium-bearing fuel work.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“We also announced a strategic partnership project with Patel Energy Alliance, the management and operating contractor for INL to use AI technologies to accelerate advanced reactor and fuel system design work.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“The project will apply INL's Prometheus AI platform to support AI-enabled engineering workflows, modeling, simulation and technical documentation, including work related to Pluto, which is a plutonium-fueled powerhouse.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“Together, the regulatory progress, site execution and AI-enabled design work are all aimed at accelerating deployment, while improving engineering efficiency.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“They're complementary, a bit different, but they focus on bringing forward some of the state of the art modeling and computational capabilities from -- frankly, from an AI-driven kind of workflow and Agentic workflow perspective to support our reactor design and development work, so we're putting it to work on our Pluto reactor, which is a plutonium-dual variant and is quite accelerating.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“It's just a great way to work together to actually apply some of these, frankly, like, phenomenal compute capabilities to get insights and accelerate sort of the technology development process and some of the shortcut, not shortcut but accelerate the trial and error considerations there, which is huge, in terms of time savings and increasing throughput and forming sort of design of material handling that allows us to get deeper into that inventory or some of that surplus in plutonium and be able to turn it into fuel more quickly.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“What that is, is effectively, it's like using their tools to create effectively reactor design teams that are -- AI reaction design teams to help us do more with less because all of the exciting things we have going on, finding ways that are significant levers for our engineering team to do more with less is going to help us take advantage of all of these opportunities that are in front of us.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“And partnering with INL has been kind of the home of this suite of reactor design and modeling tools and being able to tie that into some of the really cool stuff they've been working on for a bit on driving AI, frankly, Agentic designers is hugely enabling.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“Because when you think about reactor design, a lot of work turns into doing kind of multi-physics optimization. And now you can put all that in a single place and get a ton of information out really quickly by just firing it off and letting it run for a long time, which helps us define, explore and then iterate down on and optimize towards the design space is much more quickly and also gain a lot of insights in the process accordingly to reduce the design space accordingly and make it even basically faster the next time.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“So we're kind of at, I guess, for the Vanguard of doing this with INL, we've been working with them for a few months on setting this up to see what could we do and what could be possible and very excited about that.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“So basically, it's going to be applying their reactor design and analysis tools and things we built together and tying that in from an Agentic AI kind of reactor design workflow or team, if you will.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“That now allows us to apply that into the Pluto program to accelerate the design work there for what we can do on the reactor front there. We also expect that to span out to other design efforts, but that's the one where it was kind of the easiest natural tie-in to start.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“But I think it's going to be really helpful in us doing more and more quickly, frankly, with less because that's really important.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
“And Jake, what excites me is further down the road when we have a fleet of assets running on more than one fuel, I can see a world where we're trying to optimize minimum amount of fuel in for maximum amount of power for longest duration between refuelings. So building out this sort of capability now, I think, is just going to have further applications on down the road.”
— Richard Bealmear, Q1 FY2026
“couple that with the strategic advancements we've been focused on working with our partners in the National Lab Ecosystem as well as across sort of the, I would call it, the AI space.”
— Jacob Dewitte, Q1 FY2026
ANALYST QUESTIONS ON AI
Q (Q1 FY2026, Jeffrey Campbell (Seaport Research Partners)): Jake, I just wanted to understand what's the -- regarding the strategic partnership project with Battelle to integrate the AI? And you also have one with NVIDIA at LANL. Could you sort of synopsize what the goals of each program are, how they differ if there's any synergies?
A: Jake Dewitte: They're complementary, a bit different, but they focus on bringing forward state-of-the-art modeling and computational capabilities from an AI-driven and agentic workflow perspective for reactor design and development on Pluto. NVIDIA–LANL focuses on plutonium chemistry, material handling, purification, and using phenomenal compute to accelerate technology development, trial-and-error, throughput, and turning surplus plutonium into fuel faster. The INL/Battelle partnership uses Prometheus AI and agentic reactor-design workflows (multi-physics optimization, AI design teams) to help engineering do more with less, starting on Pluto with expected extension to other designs. Craig Bealmear added that the capability could later optimize fuel-in vs. power-out across a multi-fuel fleet.