← back to rankingMDT · Medtronic plc
Medical - Devices · mkt cap $94.7B · calls: Q4 FY2026 vs Q3 FY2026
44.0 conviction · conf-adj 44
conf 3/10 🚀 reported partial
enthusiasm:15.0 · trend:0 · quantifies:0 · impact:0 · under_radar:14 · credibility:12 · business_impact:4 · disruption:0 · commitment:-4 · confirmation:3
Enthusiasm latest 5 / prev 5 (flat)
Medtronic's AI narrative centers on three discrete assets — the Touch Surgery AI-powered analytics platform (tied to Hugo robotics), the Stealth AXiS AI-powered surgical planning system (tied to the AiBLE spine ecosystem), and the newly acquired CathWorks FFRangio (AI-driven cath lab decision support) — rather than enterprise-wide AI transformation. Enthusiasm is moderate and consistent across both calls (score 5/10 each), with AI used as a product-level differentiator and market-expansion lever rather than a cost or margin story, and the only quantification offered is Touch Surgery's installation count trajectory, not revenue or savings attribution. Credibility is modest: the AI claims are tied to real, cleared products with adoption metrics, but management does not bridge any AI feature to a specific revenue line, margin benefit, or competitive win rate, leaving the financial impact largely asserted rather than measured.
GROUNDED NEXT-FY IMPACT vs CONSENSUS
Grounded on actual base — revenue $36.4B · net income $4.8B · net margin 13.2% · diluted EPS 3.73
These are next-fiscal-year annual uplift estimates, not next-quarter numbers.
Aggregate next-FY est. rev uplift: % · next-FY EPS uplift: % · vs analysts: unclear · priced in: low (model's call-read: high; verdict above is the hard-data one used for ranking) · confidence: 3/10
| Claim | Figure | Arithmetic | Next-FY Rev % | Next-FY EPS % |
|---|
Touch Surgery 1,400+ installs (+30%+ seq, Q4 FY26)
engagement · soft | 1,400+ installations, up 30%+ sequentially | Q4 exit 1,400+ with +30% seq ⇒ implied Q3 base = 1,400/1.30 ≈ 1,077; net adds ≈ 323. Installation COUNT only — no disclosed $/install, ASP, attach SaaS fee or ARR, so cannot map units to $ revenue/EPS vs $36.364B rev / $7.153B adj. NI. Unanchored. | | |
Touch Surgery 1,000+ installs (+20%+ seq, Q3 FY26)
engagement · soft | 1,000+ installations, up 20%+ sequentially | 1,000+ at Q3 with +20% seq ⇒ implied Q2 base ≈ 833; momentum 833→1,000→1,400+ (~+68% H2 FY26). Superseded by Q4 count; still unit-only with no disclosed economics to convert to $ revenue. | | |
CathWorks FFRangio — $1B wire-based FFR TAM, low-double-digit growth
revenue · soft | $1 billion displaceable segment growing low double digits | $1B is the THIRD-PARTY wire-FFR TAM FFRangio could displace — NOT a Medtronic revenue or bookings figure. Full displacement = $1,000M/$36,364M = 2.75% of MDT rev (ceiling). Converting to next-FY revenue requires a share-capture rate that is NOT disclosed; an illustrative 5% FY27 capture ≈$50M→0.14% rev and (25% incr. margin) +$12.5M→0.17% EPS, but that capture % is assumed, not given. Treated as unanchored for next-FY $. | | |
AI/digital/robotics as meaningful growth accelerants (Q4 FY26)
other · soft | meaningful accelerants (unquantified) | No $, %, or timing anchor — cannot compute rev_uplift_pct or eps_uplift_pct. | | |
FFRangio to disrupt wire-based FFR (forward, Q4 FY26)
revenue · soft | disrupt gold-standard wire-based FFR ($1B segment) | Duplicate of CathWorks TAM claim; no incremental $ beyond the $1B TAM / low-double-digit growth already covered. | | |
Touch Surgery as clear differentiator / ecosystem priority (Q4 FY26)
engagement · soft | clear differentiator (unquantified $) | Strategic framing only; install counts quantified separately without $ linkage. | | |
Stealth AXiS — lower robotics barriers, navigated-spine market (Q3 FY26)
other · soft | grow navigated-spine market (unquantified) | No market $, share, or revenue ramp disclosed. | | |
Assumptions: Earnings basis = consensus NON-GAAP (~$7.15B adj. NI / $5.52 EPS), not GAAP ($4.8B NI / $3.73) which would distort EPS%. Default tax 21%, incremental net margin 13.2% (or 25% for AI/software mix) only if revenue were sizable. None of the claims supplies a disclosed Medtronic AI revenue $, bookings $, cost saving $, or per-unit ASP: Touch Surgery figures are unit counts; CathWorks $1B is a third-party displaceable TAM, not MDT revenue, with no disclosed capture rate. So no per-claim arithmetic yields an anchored next-FY figure; X's $50M/5%-capture is an illustrative sensitivity, not a disclosed number. No supplier-side AI revenue in claims.
Top line: All quantified AI claims are adoption/TAM metrics, not revenue. Touch Surgery is an installed-base count (1,000+→1,400+, +20–30% seq) with no disclosed ASP/attach $. CathWorks cites a $1B DISPLACEABLE wire-FFR market — 2.75% of $36.364B rev at full capture (ceiling), phasing over years. Next-FY share capture is an undisclosed fraction; an illustrative 5% (~$50M) ≈0.14% of revenue and only ~1.8% of the ~$2.73B incremental revenue analysts already embed FY26→FY27 (+7.5%), but capture % is assumed so no anchored topline is booked.
Bottom line: No disclosed AI revenue, cost saving, or productivity $ — no firm EPS bridge. Illustratively, $50M CathWorks ramp at 25% incremental margin = +$12.5M adj. NI ≈0.17% EPS vs $7.15B consensus NI (and even 25% TAM share $250M ≈0.87% EPS) — far below FY27 consensus EPS growth +8.3% ($5.52→$5.97). But these rest on an undisclosed capture rate, so EPS uplift is null, not zero: real strategically, unquantified by management. Touch Surgery and Stealth AXiS contribute no quantified EPS.
[impact n/m (all claims soft/unanchored)] Consensus already builds revenue $36.15B→$38.87B (+7.5%) and EPS $5.52→$5.97 (+8.3%), embedding the surgical/Touch Surgery ramp and CathWorks within ordinary segment growth. Management gave no discrete incremental AI $ that can be anchored to next-FY revenue: install counts lack $/unit and the $1B CathWorks figure is a displaceable TAM with no disclosed capture rate. Any quantifiable slice (even an aggressive 25% TAM share, 0.69% rev/0.87% EPS) explains <2% of the consensus delta, so the AI initiatives appear folded into already-modeled growth (priced_in high), with no measurable gap to call ahead or behind (vs expectations unclear). FFRangio's wire-FFR disruption is the genuinely interesting upside but lacks a disclosed capture rate to size.
MODEL CONSENSUS (impact)
partial
Agree Touch Surgery/Stealth are unanchored and impact is largely priced. Split on CathWorks $1B TAM: sided with Y (null) — capture rate undisclosed, so no anchored next-FY uplift.
Conflicts reconciled
- CathWorks rev/eps: X=0.14/0.17 (assumed 5% TAM capture) vs Y=null -> used null because the capture rate is undisclosed and 5% is invented; kept as sensitivity only
- est_rev/eps_uplift_pct: X=0.14/0.17 vs Y=null -> used null (conservative; no anchored next-FY $)
- vs_analyst_expectations: X=inline vs Y=unclear -> used unclear; no quantified AI $ to measure a gap
- priced_in: X=high vs Y=medium -> used high; consensus already embeds segment growth, quantifiable slice <2% of delta
- confidence: X=4 vs Y=3 -> used 3 (lowered on conflict)
- supplier_rev_uplift_pct: X=0 vs Y=null -> used 0 (MDT is adopter, sells no supplier-side AI)
| Field | Opus 4.8 | GPT-5.5 |
|---|
| Rev uplift % | – | – |
| EPS uplift % | – | – |
| Priced in | medium | – |
| vs analysts | unclear | – |
| Confidence | 3 | – |
| Top line | All three quantified AI claims are adoption/TAM metrics, not revenue. Touch Surgery is an installed-base count (1,400+, +30% seq) with no disclosed ASP or attach revenue; CathWorks FFRangio cites a $1B DISPLACEABLE market (the wire-based FFR segment), not Medtronic sales. Even bounding CathWorks at full capture is only ~2.75% of $36.364B revenue and would phase in over years — actual next-FY share capture is an undisclosed fraction. No anchored next-FY topline uplift can be computed. | – |
| Bottom line | No disclosed AI revenue, cost saving, or productivity $ — so no EPS bridge exists. Sizing against the consensus non-GAAP base (~$7.15B adj. NI / $5.518 EPS) would require inventing a CathWorks share or a Touch Surgery ASP, which the inputs forbid. EPS uplift is therefore null, not zero — the impact is real strategically but unquantified by management. | – |
| Reasoning | Consensus already builds revenue from $36.15B (FY26) to $38.87B (FY27, +7.5%) and EPS $5.518->$5.974 (+8.3%), embedding the surgical/Touch Surgery ramp and CathWorks within ordinary segment growth. Management never breaks out an incremental AI $ that could be compared to that trajectory, so there is no measurable gap to call ahead or behind — the AI initiatives are folded into already-modeled growth (priced_in medium). The genuinely interesting, un-priced upside (FFRangio disrupting the $1B wire-FFR market) lacks any disclosed capture rate to quantify. | – |
Rows highlighted where the two models disagreed.
QUANTIFICATIONS
Touch Surgery (AI-powered analytics) installations: 1,400+ installations, up 30%+ sequentially (Q4 FY2026 (as of April 2026), topline)
“our Touch Surgery digital ecosystem continues to represent a clear advantage, with over 1,400 installations, up 30% plus, sequentially.”
Touch Surgery (AI-powered analytics) installations: 1,000+ installations, up 20%+ sequentially (Q3 FY2026 (as of January 2026), topline)
“Touch Surgery installations increased over 20% sequentially and have now surpassed 1,000 systems globally.”
Addressable market for CathWorks AI-based FFRangio (wire-based FFR displacement): $1 billion segment growing in the low double digits (Q4 FY2026 (current market size cited at deal announcement), topline)
“CathWorks' FFRangio system uses a combination of AI and advanced computational science to improve decision-making in the cath lab. The company recently presented positive 1-year data from the ALL-RISE trial validating FFRangio as a noninvasive technology poised to disrupt the gold standard, traditional wire-based FFR, which is a $1 billion segment growing in the low double digits.”
PAST (realized)
- Q3 FY2026 — Touch Surgery installations surpassed 1,000 globally, growing over 20% sequentially (Geoffrey Martha).
- Q3 FY2026 — Stealth AXiS received FDA clearance for spinal procedures, described as unifying 'AI-powered planning, robotics and navigation into one seamless system' (Geoffrey Martha).
- Q4 FY2026 — CathWorks acquisition closed; FFRangio system uses 'a combination of AI and advanced computational science to improve decision-making in the cath lab,' with positive 1-year ALL-RISE trial data presented (Geoffrey Martha).
- Q4 FY2026 — Stealth AXiS achieved FDA clearance across spine, cranial and ENT indications as well as CE mark for spine and cranial (Thierry Pieton).
CURRENT (now)
- Q4 FY2026 — Touch Surgery ecosystem at 1,400 installations globally, up 30%+ sequentially, described as 'complementing our strong foundation with data and analytics, driving a more precise, intelligent and predictable future in surgery' (Geoffrey Martha).
- Q4 FY2026 — AiBLE ecosystem (including AI-powered Stealth AXiS) acting as a 'force multiplier, driving pull-through across planning, robotics and our broader AiBLE ecosystem' and making the installed base stickier (Thierry Pieton).
- Q4 FY2026 — CathWorks FFRangio deployed in the cath lab using AI for noninvasive decision-making as a live commercial offering (Geoffrey Martha).
- Q3 FY2026 — Touch Surgery described as 'an AI-powered data connectivity and analytics technology that is unique to Medtronic,' actively paired with Hugo robot deployments (Geoffrey Martha).
FORWARD (guidance)
- Q4 FY2026 — Management frames 'AI, digital, robotics as well as advanced electronics' as 'meaningful accelerants' to Medtronic's long-term growth, with the company 'uniquely positioned to integrate these technologies for safer care, improved outcomes and stronger health care economics' (Geoffrey Martha).
- Q4 FY2026 — CathWorks AI-based FFRangio positioned to 'disrupt the gold standard, traditional wire-based FFR, which is a $1 billion segment growing in the low double digits' (Geoffrey Martha).
- Q4 FY2026 — Touch Surgery digital ecosystem cited as a 'clear differentiator' and ongoing investment priority as Medtronic builds toward an integrated surgical ecosystem analogous to AiBLE in spine (Geoffrey Martha).
- Q3 FY2026 — Stealth AXiS expected to lower barriers to robotics adoption and grow the navigated-spine market, with future cranial and ENT indications pursued, extending AI-powered planning beyond spine (Geoffrey Martha).
TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY
84/100 track record delivers 6 calls reviewed
Medtronic rarely sets numeric AI targets; instead it commits to dated regulatory and launch milestones for robotics, closed-loop therapy, and AI-enabled surgical/diabetes platforms—and consistently hits Hugo, LigaSure-on-Hugo, Stealth AXiS, Flex, and 780G type-2 timelines. The main blemish is a modest slip on Sphere-360 U.S. pivotal timing from calendar 2025 into early 2026.
Submit Hugo robotic system for FDA urology approval by end of Feb 2025 — promised Q3 FY2025
delivered Q4 FY2025 confirmed the urology IDE/FDA filing was completed on schedule.
Add LigaSure vessel-sealing to Hugo robot later in calendar 2025 — promised Q3 FY2025
delivered Q4 FY2025 reported first Hugo cases using LigaSure, meeting the 2025 milestone.
U.S. FDA approval and launch of Hugo urology robot in back half of FY26 — promised Q1 FY2026
delivered Q3 FY2026 announced FDA clearance, first U.S. installations, and initial cases at Cleveland Clinic.
Start U.S. pivotal trial for Sphere-360 PFA/mapping catheter later in calendar 2025 — promised Q4 FY2025
partial IDE was submitted by Q2 FY2026 but the U.S. pivotal did not start until Q3 FY2026 (Jan 2026), slipping past the 2025 target.
Stealth AXiS AI-planning/navigation/robotics platform to contribute to CST/neurosurgery as soon as Q4 FY26 — promised Q3 FY2026
delivered Q4 FY2026 reported FDA clearance across spine/cranial/ENT, strong early sales, and low double-digit navigation growth after late-quarter launch.
Submit next-gen MiniMed Flex AID pump to U.S. FDA by end of FY26 — promised Q4 FY2025
delivered Q3 FY2026 confirmed MiniMed Flex was submitted to FDA on the promised timeline.
PRICED-IN (REFINED)
LOW (room left)Est. revisions falling · Fwd P/E 14.9 · EV/Sales 3.6x
AI claim maps to Neuroscience Group, Medical Surgical, Cardiac and Vascular Group
Estimate momentum is weak: price targets step down from $104 (last year) to $97 (last quarter) to $90 (last month), and strong-buy counts have eased while holds are steady—not a rising-revision setup. Forward consensus still embeds only mid-single-digit revenue/EPS growth through FY28, with no obvious AI-acceleration step-up. Valuation is not stretched (14.9x next-FY EPS, ~3.6x EV/sales), so there is little evidence the market has paid up for AI-led upside in Neuroscience, Medical Surgical, or Cardiac and Vascular. Falling/flat revisions plus reasonable multiples point to AI upside largely not priced in.
COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS
6Q3 FY20254Q4 FY20255Q1 FY20264Q2 FY20267Q3 FY20268Q4 FY2026
AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend ↗ rising
Spine AiBLE and closed-loop sensing early; later Touch Surgery, Stealth AXiS, CathWorks AI with install metrics.
RECENT AI CATALYSTS & NEWS
BUSINESS IMPACT - QUALITATIVE MATERIALITY
5/10 qualitative impact moderate medium-term · mixed evidence
Where AI matters: robotics/spine planning ecosystems and cath-lab AI
AI is embedded in cleared products (Touch Surgery, Stealth AXiS, FFRangio) with real install momentum, but management ties no AI feature to revenue or margin and quantified upside is tiny versus ~$36B sales—even aggressive CathWorks share is well under 1% of revenue/EPS.
Caveats: No disclosed $/install or revenue bridge for Touch Surgery or Stealth despite fast install growth; CathWorks $1B TAM capture and clinical adoption still unproven at Medtronic scale; ISRG/Stryker can match AI-enabled surgical workflows, limiting differentiation premium
AI DISRUPTION / CANNIBALIZATION RISK tailwind · 2/10
Medtronic’s model is regulated devices, implants, and procedural ecosystems—not billable hours or easily copied software—so AI mainly deepens workflow lock-in and lets FFRangio displace wire-FFR rather than automating away the core sale; competitive robotics AI is a share fight, not structural commoditization of the franchise.
OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE
option liquidity: good
proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $791M · beta 0.597 · px $82.30
source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.
CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE
Mixed — insiders selling, institutions adding, management language 3/10 hedged.
INSIDERS selling 5 open-market sell(s) vs 0 buy(s) — net distribution
INSTITUTIONS (13F) adding as of 2026-03-31: 182 new / 266 closed positions; 1086 increased / 882 reduced; institutional ownership -0.12pp; -92 net 13F holders
MGMT LANGUAGE 3/10 hedged AI barely mentioned; one acquired AI product plus vague digital surgery language, no AI metrics or rollout targets.
commit “We closed on the CathWorks transaction.”
commit “Digital is creating real value in the OR, and we are investing and innovating to lead in this space.”
commit “CathWorks' FFRangio system uses a combination of AI and advanced computational science to improve decision-making in the cath lab.”
VERBATIM AI QUOTES
“CathWorks' FFRangio system uses a combination of AI and advanced computational science to improve decision-making in the cath lab. The company recently presented positive 1-year data from the ALL-RISE trial validating FFRangio as a noninvasive technology poised to disrupt the gold standard, traditional wire-based FFR, which is a $1 billion segment growing in the low double digits.”
— Geoffrey Martha, Q4 FY2026
“AI, digital, robotics as well as advanced electronics are meaningful accelerants. And at Medtronic, we are uniquely positioned to integrate these technologies for safer care, improved outcomes and stronger health care economics that scale globally.”
— Geoffrey Martha, Q4 FY2026
“our Touch Surgery digital ecosystem continues to represent a clear advantage, with over 1,400 installations, up 30% plus, sequentially. We are complementing our strong foundation with data and analytics, driving a more precise, intelligent and predictable future in surgery. Digital is creating real value in the OR, and we are investing and innovating to lead in this space.”
— Geoffrey Martha, Q4 FY2026
“Stealth is a force multiplier, driving pull-through across planning, robotics and our broader AiBLE ecosystem. It promotes the adoption of robotics in spine surgery, creates efficiencies that allow more physicians to integrate it without disrupting workflow. All of this makes our installed base stickier over time.”
— Thierry Pieton, Q4 FY2026
“Hugo is especially compelling when paired with our Touch Surgery digital ecosystem, an AI-powered data connectivity and analytics technology that is unique to Medtronic. This quarter, Touch Surgery installations increased over 20% sequentially and have now surpassed 1,000 systems globally.”
— Geoffrey Martha, Q3 FY2026
“Stealth AXiS is a new transformative platform that unifies AI-powered planning, robotics and navigation into one seamless system, elevated by the entire AiBLE ecosystem.”
— Geoffrey Martha, Q3 FY2026
“from the initial imaging to the AI-based surgical planning, right into the case, navigation, imaging and now robotics, one seamless workflow that trust me, surgeons really have been waiting for. So you got a better robot with more functionality and then you've got a much, much, much better workflow that, as you know, is super important to physicians and health systems.”
— Geoffrey Martha, Q3 FY2026
“Both transactions underscore our long-term strategy to digitize, enable and build effective and efficient ecosystems within our core markets.”
— Geoffrey Martha, Q3 FY2026
ANALYST QUESTIONS ON AI
Q (Q3 FY2026, Joanne Wuensch (Citi)): I'm going to ask the Stealth AXiS question and what you can share with us about the product and why you're so excited about it?
A: Martha explained that Stealth AXiS is not an extension of Mazor but a new platform, and that its key value is workflow integration: 'from the initial imaging to the AI-based surgical planning, right into the case, navigation, imaging and now robotics, one seamless workflow.' He noted 70% of U.S. spine procedures use navigation today while robotics penetration is far lower, and Stealth AXiS lowers barriers to robotic adoption by fitting into that navigated workflow — growing the market and extending Medtronic's lead over competitors.