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KBR · KBR, Inc.

Engineering & Construction · mkt cap $4.5B · calls: Q1 FY2026 vs Q4 FY2025
42.0 conviction · conf-adj 42

conf –

enthusiasm:18.0 · trend:0 · quantifies:0 · impact:0 · under_radar:14 · credibility:0 · business_impact:4 · disruption:0 · commitment:0 · confirmation:6

Enthusiasm latest 6 / prev 7 (flat)

KBR's AI story is embedded in contract wins and partnerships (Applied Computing, Tag-up AI, INSITE 3.0) across STS plant optimization and MTS mission analytics/decision support—not a standalone AI product line. Management emphasizes ROI-driven use cases and government-funded digital engineering, with Q4 offering the deepest strategic framing and Q1 showing more operational embedding in wins and pipeline themes. Credibility is moderate: named products and partnerships are concrete, but management never attaches AI to revenue, bookings, margin, or cost savings figures.

PAST (realized)
CURRENT (now)
FORWARD (guidance)
TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY

/100 (no quantified promises)   no-quantified-promises  6 calls reviewed

Across six calls, KBR discussed digital engineering, physics-based AI (INSITE 3.0), AI/analytics partnerships (Applied, tag-up), and AI-enabled mission work, but never stated a numbered AI outcome with a deadline (e.g., % productivity, $ AI revenue, autonomy scale by year). Without quantified AI targets, delivery on AI promises cannot be scored.

PRICED-IN (REFINED)
LOW (room left)

Est. revisions falling  ·  Fwd P/E 23.8  ·  EV/Sales 0.9x

AI claim maps to Mission Technology Solutions, Sustainable Technology Solutions

Estimate-revision momentum is negative: buy ratings drifted from 7 to 4 over Jan–Jun 2026 while holds held at 4, and price targets collapsed from ~$50.6 (last year) to ~$36 (last month/quarter), so the Street is not migrating up on AI. Forward revenue growth in consensus is modest (~3% FY26) despite a large EPS step-up already in the numbers. Valuation is mixed but not clearly AI-rich: fwd P/E ~23.8 is elevated versus TTM ~11, yet EV/Sales ~0.9 is reasonable for a diversified contractor, so rerating looks more like portfolio/earnings normalization than an AI premium. AI-driven upside would most plausibly flow through Mission Technology Solutions and Sustainable Technology Solutions, not legacy Government Solutions. Net: falling revisions on a non-stretched sales multiple leave room for AI to surprise versus consensus—priced_in_refined low.
COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS
5Q4 FY20246Q1 FY20254Q2 FY20256Q3 FY20257Q4 FY20256Q1 FY2026

AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend ↗ rising

Digital engineering labs matured into named AI products—INSITE 3.0 physics-based AI and Applied-enabled ops solutions—with peak specificity in Q4 FY2025.

RECENT AI CATALYSTS & NEWS
BUSINESS IMPACT - QUALITATIVE MATERIALITY

5/10 qualitative impact   moderate  medium-term · soft evidence

Where AI matters: MTS mission analytics & STS plant/digital ops

Concrete AI embeds (INSITE 3.0, Applied Computing, Tag-up) in contract wins and sustainment/plant workflows, but management never links AI to revenue, bookings, margin, or cost savings, so benefits look real but indirect and unscaled.

Caveats: No quantified AI revenue, margin, or productivity targets; Mild billable-hour pressure on commoditized digital/design tasks; AI differentiation partly via partners, not a standalone product P&L; Government recompete and budget cyclicality dominate MTS growth

AI DISRUPTION / CANNIBALIZATION RISK  tailwind · 3/10

Revenue rests on cleared mission execution, field sustainment, and complex industrial O&M where AI mainly augments decision support; GenAI may compress routine engineering/documentation hours but is unlikely to displace accountability-heavy, regulated, physical-delivery work that defines the model.

OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE

option liquidity: fair

ATM IV
TYPICAL BID-ASK
OPEN INTEREST

proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $61M · beta 0.472 · px $35.10

source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.

CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE
Confirming — insiders buying, institutions adding, management language 4/10 measured.
INSIDERS buying 4 open-market buy(s) vs 0 sell(s) — net accumulation
INSTITUTIONS (13F) adding as of 2026-03-31: 63 new / 77 closed positions; 208 increased / 121 reduced; institutional ownership -2.58pp; -14 net 13F holders
MGMT LANGUAGE 4/10 measured Brief AI mentions on contracts and partnership; STS line uses expected to; no AI metrics or timelines.
commit “leverage AI and data-driven insights to support higher confidence decisions”
commit “focused on using AI, analytics and systems engineering to modernize transportation and improve safety”
commit “digital and data capabilities playing an increasingly central role in mission success”
VERBATIM AI QUOTES
“Our partnership with Applied Computing supports data-driven and AI-enabled solutions that are expected to connect project execution to maintenance and operations while staying disciplined within our capital light model.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q1 FY2026
“Recent mission tech wins reflect a consistent set of strengths. We are buying digital engineering and analytics to help accelerate time lines, leverage AI and data-driven insights to support higher confidence decisions, and delivering trusted execution in mission-critical environments.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q1 FY2026
“In space and national security, we won new work supporting the U.S. space force, applying digital engineering and analytics to help accelerate the development and deployment of next-generation space capabilities.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q1 FY2026
“On the civilian side, we were awarded a recompete with the Department of Transportation's, [indiscernible] Center extending a long-standing partnership focused on using AI, analytics and systems engineering to modernize transportation and improve safety.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q1 FY2026
“Second, we are increasingly valuing partners who can integrate across the [indiscernible] and translate software and data-driven architectures, into operational capability at speed.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q1 FY2026
“Finally, we continue to see durable demand in readies sustainment and deployed mission support, including Allied life cycle programs. These missions place a premium on reliability, scale and end-to-end accountability, and we're increasingly applying AI-enabled tools, including through our partnership with tag-up AI to help improve sustainment workflows and readiness outcomes.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q1 FY2026
“And I think you'll have seen that coming through in the awards, particularly on data and digital and AI solutioning that really helps speak to mission data analysis to help sort of decision-making and really that sort of impact to mission that is really at the front of the agenda of the Trump administration.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q1 FY2026
“So -- and I think we're very well positioned in all of those areas to assist and to add value to our customers with an increasing focus on digital and AI solutioning, and we covered a bit of that in the scripted remarks as well as the how we're moving firmly in that direction.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q1 FY2026
“In Sustainable Tech, we launched INSITE 3.0 this quarter through a new venture with Applied, enhancing operational performance across KBR licensed ammonia plants using physics-based AI.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q4 FY2025
“Post-LinQuest, the establishment of a new Chief Technology Officer role and our digital design labs are strengthening our position as a true capability partner.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q4 FY2025
“Across the portfolio, we are being more selective. We're continually moving upmarket and leaning into innovation and digital differentiation.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q4 FY2025
“But the level of digital solutioning and thinking through how you can help your customer keep the plant up or make it more efficient and do predictive and analytics that support that is exciting, and we're right in the middle of all that.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q4 FY2025
“Yes. We talked a little bit about this before, I think, in last quarter that I think there's a number of companies that created AI departments, et cetera. And I think they probably spend a lot of money with not a lot of gain. We've been very disciplined around how we approach this, and we very much look at use case solutions that actually drive an ROI.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q4 FY2025
“We've got a number of activities inside MTS that are funded by government, as you would expect, as we look at that from an R&D perspective, and that hangs off the back of our digital engineering labs that we press released recently and talked a little bit about in the prepared remarks, which are gaining good traction because of the speed to market of R&D projects, et cetera, as you would expect.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q4 FY2025
“More in the STS world, again, looking very strongly at use cases around accelerating engineering, making sure there's checks and balances within that engineering that avoid human errors, speed up progress. But at the same time, looking at how we operate facilities across the world or our customers operate facilities and using particularly digital twins and applying AI and machine learning to really sort of draw data and get trending over time to know what good looks like and make sure that operators can intercede at the appropriate time or the maintenance crews can intercede at the appropriate time.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q4 FY2025
“So it's a multifaceted approach, but ultimately, it's driven by use case ROI, and we put quite a bit of front-end effort into that, Andy, rather than just saying AI is good and just running at it. We've been quite disciplined.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q4 FY2025
“And that's on the front of office. I think in the back of office, increasing use of bots to drive efficiency and decrease human error, keep our SG&A in check or reduce it in fact, over time.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q4 FY2025
“We're rolling out Microsoft Dynamics across the STS portfolio, which is really the forefront of a digitalized ERP because our project controls, which gives us all the project data hangs off that, and we can look at things real time and start to make real-time decisions on commercial execution.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q4 FY2025
“And we've also got digital procurement hanging off the back of that and with a similar upside. And so I think that whole digital project execution philosophy underpinned by really a very modern and digitally enabled ERP is going to stand us in really good stead as we come out of the spin.”
— Stuart Bradie, Q4 FY2025
ANALYST QUESTIONS ON AI
Q (Q4 FY2025, Andrew Kaplowitz (Citigroup)): Stuart, can you talk a little bit more maybe about impacts of AI on KBR? I think you mentioned it briefly in prepared remarks, but how do we think about the mix between software and services and MTS? I mean you mentioned digital and sort of the growth there. I think there's quite a few security and regulatory barriers that should protect your business versus AI. But maybe you could elaborate on how you think about AI's impact on KBR's businesses.
A: Management said KBR pursues AI through disciplined, ROI-driven use cases rather than standalone AI departments. In MTS, government-funded R&D runs through digital engineering labs. In STS, AI/ML on digital twins supports predictive plant operations and engineering acceleration with error checks. Back-office bots target efficiency and lower SG&A. Microsoft Dynamics ERP rollout enables real-time project and procurement decisions, positioning KBR post-spin.