← back to rankingJPM · JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Banks - Diversified · mkt cap $804.3B · calls: Q1 FY2026 vs Q4 FY2025
33.0 conviction
enthusiasm:24.0 · trend:8 · quantifies:0 · impact:0 · under_radar:5 · credibility:0 · commitment:-4 · confirmation:0
Enthusiasm latest 6 / prev 5 (rising)
Across both calls, JPM's AI story is operational and defensive—not a quantified earnings driver: live uses include fraud/scam, prospecting, personalization/Connected Commerce, and client-facing AI services, while generative AI elevates cyber risk (Mythos testing). Management downplays the AI-branded cash/deposit tool as a small experiment and rejects the idea that AI will sustainably lift margins or the efficiency ratio, arguing competitive pass-through to customers even as spend rises modestly. Credibility is high on risk framing and selective deployment, low on measurable P&L impact because no AI-linked financial metrics were offered.
PAST (realized)
- Q1 FY2026 — James Dimon: We do a lot to reduce risk and fraud and scam by using AI.
- Q1 FY2026 — James Dimon: We do a lot better job of prospecting.
- Q1 FY2026 — James Dimon: We offer AI services to clients, et cetera.
- Q1 FY2026 — James Dimon: now we call it Connected Commerce, where you do travel and offers and all of these various things that people want.
- Q1 FY2026 — Jeremy Barnum: there's been a clear understanding that AI and generative AI, in particular, brings both risks and opportunities from the cyber risk management perspective.
- Q4 FY2025 — James Dimon: We're adding better personalization in consumer banking credit card. We're adding AI across the company, and those are all opportunities.
CURRENT (now)
- Q1 FY2026 — Jeremy Barnum: this thing is like kind of not even live yet ... I think the right way to think of it is sort of as an experiment right now. (AI cash tool)
- Q1 FY2026 — James Dimon: but AI has made it worse, it's made it harder.
- Q1 FY2026 — James Dimon: we read about Mythos, which we're testing now and looking at it
- Q4 FY2025 — James Dimon: We're building more payment systems. We're building more AI systems.
- Q4 FY2025 — James Dimon: We will be spending more [on AI], but it is not a big driver
FORWARD (guidance)
- Q1 FY2026 — James Dimon: And maybe down the road, better ways to strengthen yourself too.
- Q1 FY2026 — James Dimon: So it will enhance a lot of things you can do directly, and it will create more adjacencies in my opinion, if you can use it quickly and wisely.
- Q1 FY2026 — James Dimon: I think it's a bad idea to think you're going to deploy AI and improve your efficiency ratio ... the benefits will be passed on to the marketplace.
- Q4 FY2025 — James Dimon: I do think it'll be driving more efficiency down the road.
- Q4 FY2025 — James Dimon: efficiency because other banks have to do it too, will eventually be passed on to the customer.
TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY
—/100 (no quantified promises) no-quantified-promises 7 calls reviewed
Across seven calls JPM discusses AI substantively—investment spend, long-standing models, LLM use without owning one, developer productivity, and the AI cash tool as a small pilot—but never sets forward targets that pair a number with a deadline. Later quarters report operating metrics and expense outlook without grading prior quantified AI commitments, so promise-vs-delivery credibility is not scoreable from this set.
PRICED-IN (REFINED)
MEDIUMEst. revisions flat · Fwd P/E 16.8 · EV/Sales 6.1x
AI claim maps to Commercial And Investment Bank, Consumer & Community Banking, Asset and Wealth Management Segment
Analyst ratings softened slightly (buy+strongBuy 14→12, holds 10→12) while sells rolled off, and consensus EPS growth is modest (~4–9% YoY) despite a small target lift (lastQuarterAvg 330.2 vs lastYearAvg 322.4). Forward P/E 16.8 and EV/Sales 6.1 are premium for a mature bank, so some quality/growth is in the multiple, but revisions are not aggressively chasing AI. AI claims map to CIB, CCB, and AWM—not corporate nonsegment—so upside is segment-specific while the stock already carries a quality premium without clear upward revision momentum.
COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS
2Q4 FY20242Q1 FY20252Q2 FY20252Q3 FY20253Q4 FY20255Q1 FY2026
AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend ↗ rising
Five calls with no AI story; latest adds specific AI cash-tool product talk.
RECENT AI CATALYSTS & NEWS
OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE
option liquidity: good
proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $2.8B · beta 1.023 · px $300.80
source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.
CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE
Undercutting — insiders selling, institutions flat, management language 2/10 hedged.
INSIDERS selling 31 open-market sell(s) vs 0 buy(s) — net distribution
INSTITUTIONS (13F) flat as of 2026-03-31: 203 new / 292 closed positions; 2297 increased / 2270 reduced; institutional ownership -1.49pp; -88 net 13F holders
MGMT LANGUAGE 2/10 hedged Only AI cash tool discussed; early, not live, experiment—no numbers or firm rollout.
commit “particularly clients with investments where we think there's an opportunity to take a larger share of the investment wallet”
commit “how can we make it easier for them to manage their money in a way they're comfortable”
hedge “obviously, there's early stages for this particular product”
VERBATIM AI QUOTES
“it's sort of understandable that's just gotten attention because it has sort of AI in it, and it's kind of interesting.”
— Jeremy Barnum, Q1 FY2026
“this thing is like kind of not even live yet and it's sort of targeted at a very small subset of the client base, particularly clients with investments where we think there's an opportunity to take a larger share of the investment wallet as part of this.”
— Jeremy Barnum, Q1 FY2026
“I think the right way to think of it is sort of as an experiment right now.”
— Jeremy Barnum, Q1 FY2026
“but AI has made it worse, it's made it harder.”
— James Dimon, Q1 FY2026
“Of course, we read about Mythos, which we're testing now and looking at it and it does create additional vulnerabilities.”
— James Dimon, Q1 FY2026
“And maybe down the road, better ways to strengthen yourself too.”
— James Dimon, Q1 FY2026
“there's been a clear understanding that AI and generative AI, in particular, brings both risks and opportunities from the cyber risk management perspective.”
— Jeremy Barnum, Q1 FY2026
“I think it's a bad idea to think you're going to deploy AI and improve your efficiency ratio because in the competitive world, I'm going to do it, everyone else is going to do it, and the benefits will be passed on to the marketplace.”
— James Dimon, Q1 FY2026
“But the second question, absolutely, it creates opportunities because if you just take our consumer business, it's true in all businesses, but just take the consumer business with the data you have and now we call it Connected Commerce, where you do travel and offers and all of these various things that people want.”
— James Dimon, Q1 FY2026
“So you can use your relations with the clients, the data you have to make the client happier.”
— James Dimon, Q1 FY2026
“We do a lot to reduce risk and fraud and scam by using AI.”
— James Dimon, Q1 FY2026
“We do a lot better job of prospecting.”
— James Dimon, Q1 FY2026
“We offer AI services to clients, et cetera.”
— James Dimon, Q1 FY2026
“So it will enhance a lot of things you can do directly, and it will create more adjacencies in my opinion, if you can use it quickly and wisely.”
— James Dimon, Q1 FY2026
“We're adding better personalization in consumer banking credit card. We're adding AI across the company, and those are all opportunities.”
— James Dimon, Q4 FY2025
“And, yeah, AI is a little bit of that.”
— Jeremy Barnum, Q4 FY2025
“We're building more payment systems. We're building more AI systems.”
— James Dimon, Q4 FY2025
“A lot of it is consumer-facing, digital, personalization, travel, offers, all these things.”
— James Dimon, Q4 FY2025
“We will be setting more in a we will I think that AI we will be spending more, but it is not a big driver I do think it'll be driving more efficiency down the road.”
— James Dimon, Q4 FY2025
“You know, efficiency because other banks have to do it too, will eventually be passed on to the customer.”
— James Dimon, Q4 FY2025
ANALYST QUESTIONS ON AI
Q (Q1 FY2026, Steven Chubak): Speak to how you see deposit competition unfolding as similar smart tools become more widespread, referencing the AI cash tool from Jamie's letter and potential consumer deposit pressure, increased competition, and higher deposit betas.
A: Jamie Dimon: Segment-by-segment money management is early; goal is to make it easier for clients within JPM's full bundle (ATMs, branches, advice, Zelle); margin pressure and competition are expected ('your margin is my opportunity'). Jeremy Barnum: Attention is understandable because it has 'AI in it,' but deposit competition has always been intense; the tool is not live yet, targets a small investment-wallet subset, and should be viewed as an experiment.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Ebrahim Poonawala): On risks: Are LLM-enabled cyber risks a different level of risk, and how prepared is the banking system? On opportunity: Could AI productivity meaningfully change the long-term efficiency ratio and create new business opportunities?
A: James Dimon: Cyber is JPM's largest risk; firm is well protected but 'AI has made it worse, it's made it harder'; testing Mythos; benefits may come later. Banks are relatively well protected but dependencies may not be. Jeremy Barnum: Generative AI cyber tradeoffs have been understood for a long time; latest models raise attention. James Dimon: Do not expect AI to sustainably improve the efficiency ratio—competition will pass benefits to customers; but AI creates opportunities via Connected Commerce, fraud/scam reduction, prospecting, and client AI services, plus adjacencies if executed quickly.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Mike Mayo): Where will tech spend be in 2026, what was AI spend last year, where will AI spend go, and what payoffs? Jamie: confidence in returns from ~$9B investment guide?
A: James Dimon: Will not disclose detail that creates competitive disadvantage; investing in branches, payments, personalization, and 'AI across the company'; tech spend will rise; AI spend will increase but 'is not a big driver'; efficiency gains will be passed to customers; must invest to stay ahead of fintechs. Jeremy Barnum: AI is only part of expense growth; more hiring/tech for product delivery; may give more color at company update.