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HAL · Halliburton Company

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · mkt cap $33.5B · calls: Q1 FY2026 vs Q4 FY2025
35.0 conviction · conf-adj 35

conf 2/10 partial

enthusiasm:18.0 · trend:0 · quantifies:0 · impact:0 · under_radar:5 · credibility:5 · business_impact:4 · disruption:0 · commitment:0 · confirmation:3

Enthusiasm latest 6 / prev 6 (flat)

Management never says "AI"; the thesis is closed-loop and autonomous oilfield systems—autonomous geosteering, LOGIX/Drilltronics rig automation, Zeus IQ sand measurement/control, and Octiv AutoFrac digital workflows—sold as recovery and drilling-efficiency differentiation. Credibility is moderate: Q4 offers one adoption metric (8%); Q1 adds Sekal, Argentina firsts, and operational outcomes (Guyana drilling times, reservoir contact) but no revenue, margin, or ROI tied to these capabilities. Enthusiasm is steady product-narrative, not escalating AI monetization disclosure.

GROUNDED NEXT-FY IMPACT vs CONSENSUS

Grounded on actual base — revenue $22.2B · net income $1.3B · net margin 5.8% · diluted EPS 1.5

These are next-fiscal-year annual uplift estimates, not next-quarter numbers.

Aggregate next-FY est. rev uplift: % · next-FY EPS uplift: % · vs analysts: unclear · priced in: medium (model's call-read: high; verdict above is the hard-data one used for ranking) · confidence: 2/10

ClaimFigureArithmeticNext-FY Rev %Next-FY EPS %
Zeus IQ + sensory + AutoFrac customer adoption +8% QoQ (Q4 FY2025)
engagement · soft		8% increase (Q4 FY2025 QoQ adoption)Management explicitly labels this a quarter-over-quarter ADOPTION/penetration metric, 'not revenue.' No revenue base, installed-base units, attach rate, or $ figure for Zeus IQ / sensory / AutoFrac is disclosed in any claim or quote. Required bridge would be adoption_base × 8% × revenue_per_adopter → Δ$, then rev_uplift_pct = 100 × Δ$ / 22,184,000,000 and eps_uplift_pct = 100 × (Δ$ × margin) / NI. With zero disclosed base the arithmetic cannot be completed without inventing inputs → unanchored, null.

Assumptions: No revenue or EPS phasing applied — the sole quantified claim lacks a dollar or unit base. Forward statements (iCruise, Logix, automated geosteering, offshore 2026–2028 growth) are unquantified and excluded from math. Default incremental net margin (5.78% = 1,283M/22,184M) and 21% tax rate would apply only if an AI revenue/savings figure existed; not used here. EPS basis note: GAAP FY2025 diluted EPS = 1.50 (1,283M / 840M shares) is depressed vs consensus adjusted EPS ~2.27 (implied adj NI ~$1.87B); any future EPS uplift would be sized vs ~2.27 adjusted, not 1.50 GAAP.

Top line: Aggregate adopter-side rev_uplift_pct = null. The only hard KPI is +8% QoQ customer adoption for Zeus IQ, sensory, and AutoFrac — an engagement/penetration metric management explicitly states is 'not revenue,' with no disclosed adoption denominator or product revenue line, so it cannot be converted to incremental revenue against FY2025 revenue of $22.184B. Directionally supportive of HAL's drilling/completions automation franchise, but unquantifiable.

Bottom line: Aggregate adopter-side eps_uplift_pct = null. With no revenue dollar base and no disclosed cost/productivity saving, there is nothing to flow to net income. FY2025 GAAP net margin is 5.78% (thin but above the ~3% guardrail); any EPS% would be sized off the ~$1.87B adjusted base, not the depressed GAAP base — but no anchored amount exists.

[impact n/m (all claims soft/unanchored)] Adopter aggregate est_rev_uplift_pct and est_eps_uplift_pct are null (0% quantifiable AI uplift). Consensus already embeds a modest growth trajectory followed by 16-17 analysts: revenue ~$21.92B (2025) → $22.21B (2026) → $23.52B (2027, ~3.6%/yr); EPS adjusted $2.27 → $2.35 → $2.89. The +8% adoption growth is consistent with HAL's existing intelligent-automation narrative, and management offers no incremental revenue/savings figure implying upside ABOVE this trajectory. With zero anchored AI dollars there is no measurable numeric gap to argue the AI stack is mispriced in either direction.

MODEL CONSENSUS (impact)

partial

Conflicts reconciled
FieldOpus 4.8GPT-5.5
Rev uplift %––
EPS uplift %––
Priced inmedium–
vs analystsunclear–
Confidence2–
Top lineNo sizable topline impact can be calculated. The single quantified AI datapoint (+8% adoption of Zeus IQ/sensory/AutoFrac) is a QoQ penetration metric that management explicitly states is 'not revenue,' and no revenue base for these products is disclosed. Directionally supportive of HAL's drilling/completions tech franchise, but unquantifiable from the inputs.–
Bottom lineNo EPS impact can be quantified. With no revenue dollar base and no disclosed cost/productivity saving, there is nothing to flow to net income. (Even if there were, the GAAP base is depressed vs the ~$1.87B adjusted consensus base, so any EPS% would be sized off the adjusted figure — but the inputs provide no anchored amount.)–
ReasoningConsensus already embeds a modest growth trajectory — revenue roughly flat-to-up (FY25 $21.92B → FY27 $23.52B, ~3.6%/yr) and EPS rising (2.27 → 2.89 adjusted). The +8% adoption growth is consistent with HAL's existing intelligent-automation narrative that these 16-17 analysts already follow, and management offers no incremental revenue/savings figure that would imply upside ABOVE this trajectory. With zero anchored AI dollars, there is no numeric gap to argue the AI stack is mispriced in either direction — so it reads as roughly priced into the existing drilling-services growth assumptions.–

Rows highlighted where the two models disagreed.

QUANTIFICATIONS
Customer adoption of Zeus IQ, sensory, and AutoFrac (AI-adjacent intelligent automation stack): 8% increase (Q4 FY2025 (quarter-over-quarter adoption metric, not revenue), topline)
“This quarter, customer adoption of Zoos IQ, sensory, and auto frac increased by 8%. Which tells me it is working.”
PAST (realized)
CURRENT (now)
FORWARD (guidance)
TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY

56/100 track record   mixed  6 calls reviewed

Halliburton reliably executes and reports major automation milestones it controls—Zeus fleet mix, Zeus IQ launch, LOGIX closed-loop drilling—but often fails to close the loop on narrower quantified KPIs like market-share or penetration-rate targets, which are dropped or left unverified.

Zeus e-fleets to comprise 50% of frac fleet by end of 2025 — promised Q4 FY2024
delivered Q3 FY2025 confirmed over half of the active North America fleet is Zeus, hitting the year-end target.
iCruise to capture ~30% of North America rotary-steerable market by year-end 2025 — promised Q4 FY2024
partial Later calls cite rapid iCruise growth and meaningful NA drilling-services gains vs a declining rig count, but management never reported or confirmed the 30% share figure.
Up to one-third of Zeus electric fleets operating with Zeus IQ closed-loop autonomous fracturing by year-end 2025 — promised Q2 FY2025
partial Zeus IQ was deployed at scale with customer milestones (e.g., Chevron), yet year-end calls cited only blended adoption growth and never confirmed reaching the one-third fleet target.
Double the installed base of Intelivate remote-operations/automation platform in 2025 — promised Q2 FY2025
quietly-dropped The doubling target was never updated or confirmed in subsequent calls and effectively disappeared from the narrative.
First closed-loop autonomous fracturing operation (Zeus IQ) with several deployments underway — promised Q1 FY2025
delivered Q1 reported the world's first closed-loop autonomous frac; Q2–Q4 showed active rollout and customer adoption, validating early execution on the capability.
Surpass 500,000 feet drilled globally with LOGIX closed-loop drilling automation — promised Q2 FY2025
delivered Q2 reported surpassing 0.5M LOGIX feet drilled and continued closed-loop automation wins internationally (Norway, Middle East, Caribbean geosteering).
PRICED-IN (REFINED)
MEDIUM

Est. revisions rising  ·  Fwd P/E 17.7  ·  EV/Sales 1.8x

AI claim maps to Drilling And Evaluation, Completion And Production

Analyst sentiment is clearly migrating up: buy-side ratings rose from 17–19 to 20 over six months while holds fell from 9 to 4, and price targets stepped up sharply (lastYearAvg 33.79 → lastQuarterAvg 42.75 → lastMonthAvg 55). Forward estimates bake in modest near-term EPS growth (2.27 to 2.35) but a larger 2027 step-up to 2.89, so consensus is already lifting the outer-year outlook. Valuation is not extreme for a cyclical OFS name—17.7x forward P/E and 1.8x EV/Sales are moderate, not peak-cycle rich—so rising revisions suggest partial pricing of efficiency/digital upside without full premium capture. AI-driven gains would most plausibly flow through Drilling And Evaluation (drilling optimization, subsurface analytics) and Completion And Production (production optimization, automated completions), not undifferentiated corporate revenue.
COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS
5Q4 FY20247Q1 FY20258Q2 FY20257Q3 FY20257Q4 FY20258Q1 FY2026

AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend ↗ rising

Moved from broad automation to closed-loop Zeus IQ, LOGIX drilling autonomy, and Sekal-integrated geosteering with metrics.

RECENT AI CATALYSTS & NEWS
BUSINESS IMPACT - QUALITATIVE MATERIALITY

6/10 qualitative impact   moderate  medium-term · mixed evidence

Where AI matters: drilling/completions closed-loop automation

LOGIX, Sekal/Drilltronics, Zeus IQ, and AutoFrac are real differentiated offerings with operational wins and +8% QoQ adoption, but management ties no dollars, margins, or ROI to them and the stack is still early versus ~$22B revenue.

Caveats: Only soft adoption KPI (+8% QoQ) with no revenue or margin bridge; Penetration targets (e.g., Zeus IQ fleet mix) partly unverified or quietly dropped; Faster drilling/completions intensity could offset share gains if E&P activity stays maintenance-level

AI DISRUPTION / CANNIBALIZATION RISK  tailwind · 3/10

Efficiency and faster wells can trim service days per barrel and commoditize undifferentiated pumping/drilling, but that is secondary to HAL's adopter-side premium-tech thesis.

OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE

option liquidity: good

ATM IV
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TYPICAL BID-ASK
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OPEN INTEREST
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proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $592M · beta 0.742 · px $40.13

source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.

CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE
Mixed — insiders selling, institutions adding, management language 5/10 measured.
INSIDERS selling 17 open-market sell(s) vs 0 buy(s) — net distribution
INSTITUTIONS (13F) adding as of 2026-03-31: 273 new / 107 closed positions; 723 increased / 289 reduced; institutional ownership -1.23pp; +163 net 13F holders
MGMT LANGUAGE 5/10 measured No explicit AI/ML; automation with past delivery, confidence language, no dollar targets.
commit “Our closed-loop automation technologies delivered better-than-expected drilling times and, most importantly, better reservoir contact.”
commit “we have worked with Sekal for several years and recently delivered this technology offshore Guyana”
hedge “In drilling, we continue to build momentum with our automated offerings.”
VERBATIM AI QUOTES
“The award also includes Octiv AutoFrac, which brings electrification, automation, and digital workflows to unconventional fracturing in Argentina.”
— Unknown Speaker (COO), Q1 FY2026
“In drilling, we continue to build momentum with our automated offerings. We recently closed our acquisition of Sekal, a global leader in rig automation. With this acquisition, our portfolio now combines Halliburton LOGIX drilling automation with Sekal's Drilltronics platform and services. This means Halliburton Company has the technology in-house to fully close the loop for automated geosteering. This includes the bottom hole assembly, the hydraulics, and now the rig itself.”
— Unknown Speaker (COO), Q1 FY2026
“We have worked with Sekal for several years and recently delivered this technology offshore Guyana. Our closed-loop automation technologies delivered better-than-expected drilling times and, most importantly, better reservoir contact.”
— Unknown Speaker (COO), Q1 FY2026
“Second, we will deploy differentiated technology at scale that solves for customers' greatest opportunities, improving recovery with Zeus IQ and drilling efficiency with iCruise.”
— Unknown Speaker (COO), Q1 FY2026
“To add to that, the Zeus platform is proving itself a unique solution, particularly with respect to Zeus IQ and the ability to move on recovery. While the ability to be more economic with gas consumption due to arbitrage is valuable, the real power in the Zeus IQ and the Zeus platform has been what it is able to do subsurface.”
— Unknown Speaker (COO), Q1 FY2026
“I will describe it in technology terms because that is where it creates the most value and commands a premium—its ability to measure where the sand is going, move the sand around, and create a closed-loop fracturing environment. That is very different than simply the arbitrage on gas to oil.”
— Unknown Speaker (COO), Q1 FY2026
“Equally important is the progress we have made with technology, particularly closed-loop automated geosteering. It is a significant step forward in terms of reservoir contact.”
— Jeffrey Miller (CEO), Q1 FY2026
“Today, we operate in seven countries, and see growing adoption of simulfrac and continuous pumping operations along with our auto frac and sensory technology.”
— Jeffrey Miller (CEO), Q4 FY2025
“In drilling, we completed the first fully autonomous geosteering run for a customer in The Caribbean. Where we maximized reservoir contact and delivered outstanding performance for the customer.”
— Jeffrey Miller (CEO), Q4 FY2025
“This is why I am so excited about Zeus IQ.”
— Jeffrey Miller (CEO), Q4 FY2025
“With respect to technology, our differentiated Zoosk platform is driving value through automation and subsurface measurement. Only Halliburton's ZEUS platform directly measures and automates the control of sand placement which I believe are critical building blocks for improving recovery.”
— Jeffrey Miller (CEO), Q4 FY2025
“This quarter, customer adoption of Zoos IQ, sensory, and auto frac increased by 8%. Which tells me it is working.”
— Jeffrey Miller (CEO), Q4 FY2025
“We are also differentiated with our iCruise rotary steerable and Logix automation. Which deliver precision and reliability in long laterals.”
— Jeffrey Miller (CEO), Q4 FY2025
“The high performance of iCruise and Logix and the secular trend towards rotary steerable drilling in North America give me great confidence in the continued success of our drilling services business.”
— Jeffrey Miller (CEO), Q4 FY2025
“And I think that's, you know, under all conditions, a very valuable solution. And as I said, a building block to how recovery is improved because, quite frankly, where the sand goes has been an unknown in this business since it started in 1947. And, really, just in the last year, or two have we been able to directly measure sand placement and also control, and this is where sand goes.”
— Jeffrey Miller (CEO), Q4 FY2025
“And this is primarily because of the Zeus setup and its ability to, you know, handle the pressure and the things in order to respond to the resume.”
— Jeffrey Miller (CEO), Q4 FY2025
“What we do with Logix, which is our automation platform for drilling, what the tools themselves are able to do.”
— Jeffrey Miller (CEO), Q4 FY2025
“Continuous pumping. Requires technology as does certainly the ability to place sand.”
— Jeffrey Miller (CEO), Q4 FY2025
ANALYST QUESTIONS ON AI
Q (Q4 FY2025, Arun Jayaram (JPMorgan)): In your prepared comments, you talked about Zoos IQ and some of the things that Halliburton's doing to help North American operators boost well productivity. I also wanted to talk to you a little bit about some of the updates we've gotten from the majors where they're talking about using lightweight proppant and surfactants. And I was wondering if you could discuss some of these efforts and maybe how you're helping clients maybe to use some of these emerging technologies? And could these be needle movers for Halliburton?
A: My comments are around our technology. And the technology that we produce, and very pleased with what we're doing. You know, And I think that the ability to place proppant and do things with proppant effectively is one of the really unique features of Zoos IQ. And I think that's, you know, under all conditions, a very valuable solution. And as I said, a building block to how recovery is improved because, quite frankly, where the sand goes has been an unknown in this business since it started in 1947. And, really, just in the last year, or two have we been able to directly measure sand placement and also control, and this is where sand goes. And this is primarily because of the Zeus setup and its ability to, you know, handle the pressure and the things in order to respond to the resume.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Stephen Gengaro (Stifel)): Follow-up around sort of your expectations for sort of completion of efficiency and sort of the impact on US production, just as we're thinking about, you know, kind of frac demand relative to some of the other high-tech services you provide and how that kinda impacts US production.
A: Outlook is we're probably at maintenance sort of levels today, if not below those. Is my view. Know? And I think that, you know, technology driving better recovery is really the key as we look ahead. I mean, the go faster, we are going faster, but we're pumping continuous pumping at rates that, you know, you really just can't pump any faster. And so I think the real hurdle is going to be how to better produce a fantastic resource. And I know that technology is at the core of that same as it has been everywhere. ... Continuous pumping. Requires technology as does certainly the ability to place sand. That said, our drilling services business is continuing to strengthen into what has been a, you know, a slowing market, at least from a rig count standpoint. And I think that's a reflection again of technology. You know, what we do with Logix, which is our automation platform for drilling, what the tools themselves are able to do.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Arun Jayaram (JPMorgan)): One of the things about Halliburton Company's frac fleet is you have a lot of exposure to natural-gas-burning equipment—e-fleets that use natural gas as an input. Could you talk about opportunities to arbitrage this delta to the benefit of shareholders in terms of pricing power?
A: That just reinforces the value in our e-fleet. Yes, clearly an opportunity. ... To add to that, the Zeus platform is proving itself a unique solution, particularly with respect to Zeus IQ and the ability to move on recovery. While the ability to be more economic with gas consumption due to arbitrage is valuable, the real power in the Zeus IQ and the Zeus platform has been what it is able to do subsurface.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Scott Gruber (Citigroup)): Do you see international shale opportunities outside of Argentina utilizing more Zeus fleets given the efficiency advantage, or do most of those plays—because they are less mature—lack the supply chains required for Zeus and end up pulling more legacy diesel fleets from the U.S.?
A: Zeus is a unique solution. ... I will describe it in technology terms because that is where it creates the most value and commands a premium—its ability to measure where the sand is going, move the sand around, and create a closed-loop fracturing environment. That is very different than simply the arbitrage on gas to oil. Markets in the earlier stages do not demand that level of capacity.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Keith MacKey (RBC Capital Markets)): Can you expand a little more on your offshore comments? You mentioned a few markets where you are seeing incremental demand, but how is the market shaping up versus what you might have thought three months ago?
A: We really like our position in offshore. ... Equally important is the progress we have made with technology, particularly closed-loop automated geosteering. It is a significant step forward in terms of reservoir contact. We feel good about the offshore business, really like our position, and we see solid growth in 2026, 2027, and 2028 in the offshore market from what we are going to be doing.