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GS · The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Financial - Capital Markets · mkt cap $314.1B · calls: Q1 FY2026 vs Q4 FY2025
48.0 conviction · conf-adj 48

conf –

enthusiasm:24.0 · trend:8 · quantifies:0 · impact:0 · under_radar:5 · credibility:0 · business_impact:8 · disruption:0 · commitment:0 · confirmation:3

Enthusiasm latest 8 / prev 7 (rising)

Goldman frames AI as both an internal productivity and efficiency lever through One Goldman Sachs 3.0 and a broader capital-markets growth catalyst as clients invest around technological change. The latest call is more enthusiastic because Solomon explicitly says AI can accelerate both growth and efficiency, while prior commentary was more focused on productivity and process redesign. Credibility is moderate: management names work streams, infrastructure investment, Anthropic collaboration, and cyber applications, but gives no quantified AI revenue, cost, margin, headcount, or productivity impact.

PAST (realized)
CURRENT (now)
FORWARD (guidance)
TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY

—/100 (no quantified promises)   no-quantified-promises  6 calls reviewed

Across all six calls Goldman Sachs discussed AI extensively (engineering copilots, the firmwide GS AI assistant, piloting Cognition's Devin coding agent, and the One Goldman Sachs 3.0 reengineering effort) but never attached a number-plus-timeframe target to any AI initiative — no quantified AI cost savings, productivity gain, headcount, or revenue goal was ever given. Management repeatedly deferred AI metrics to future updates, so there is no quantified AI promise to audit for delivery.

PRICED-IN (REFINED)
MEDIUM

Est. revisions flat  ·  Fwd P/E 28.9  ·  EV/Sales 9.5x

AI claim maps to Global Markets, Investment Management, Platform Solutions

Analyst ratings are not migrating upward, with buys slightly lower versus prior months and holds still dominant, while the last-month price target average is below the last-quarter average despite being above the last-year average. Forward estimates do embed solid revenue and EPS growth, but the revision signal is mixed rather than clearly rising. Valuation is rich for a mature capital-markets firm at 28.9x forward EPS and 9.5x EV/Sales, so AI upside tied mainly to Global Markets, Investment Management, and Platform Solutions is partly reflected. Rich valuation with flat/mixed revisions supports a medium priced-in verdict rather than low or high.
COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS
2Q4 FY20246Q1 FY20258Q2 FY20259Q3 FY20257Q4 FY20258Q1 FY2026

AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend ↗ rising

AI evolved from minimal mention to firmwide productivity programs and concrete financing, banking, and operating leverage opportunities.

RECENT AI CATALYSTS & NEWS
BUSINESS IMPACT - QUALITATIVE MATERIALITY

7/10 qualitative impact   material  medium-term · soft evidence

Where AI matters: firmwide productivity, client service, risk and capital-markets workflows

Goldman is deploying AI through One GS 3.0, Ella AI, cloud/data infrastructure, cyber resilience, and six workstreams, which can materially improve operating leverage and client-facing knowledge workflows across a large, high-cost franchise. The upside is credible but still mostly qualitative, with no quantified revenue, cost, margin, or headcount targets.

Caveats: No quantified AI productivity or financial targets disclosed; Benefits may be offset by cloud, data, cyber, and model-governance investment; Regulatory, model-risk, privacy, and cyber constraints may slow deployment; AI could compress some advisory/research workflow pricing or reduce labor leverage in parts of the franchise

AI DISRUPTION / CANNIBALIZATION RISK  two-sided · 3/10

AI can automate parts of research, coding, analytics, sales support, and junior banking workflows, pressuring some labor-intensive economics and potentially democratizing tools clients previously paid experts to provide. The core model remains relatively durable because Goldman monetizes relationships, underwriting/trading scale, risk intermediation, regulatory trust, capital access, and institutional distribution rather than generic information processing alone.

OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE

option liquidity: good

ATM IV
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TYPICAL BID-ASK
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OPEN INTEREST
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proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $2.3B · beta 1.274 · px $1,064.58

source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.

CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE
Mixed — insiders selling, institutions adding, management language 5/10 measured.
INSIDERS selling 74 open-market sell(s) vs 0 buy(s) — net distribution
INSTITUTIONS (13F) adding as of 2026-03-31: 191 new / 239 closed positions; 1366 increased / 1179 reduced; institutional ownership +0.30pp; -48 net 13F holders
MGMT LANGUAGE 5/10 measured AI discussion is real but qualified: infrastructure investment and workstreams, with benefits framed as future efficiency opportunities over time.
commit “we are also investing for long-term growth, including through One Goldman Sachs 3.0.”
commit “we are, therefore, accelerating our investments in cloud migration, and in the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of our data.”
hedge “we thoughtfully implemented new technologies across our 6 initial work streams and around the firm more broadly.”
VERBATIM AI QUOTES
“As I mentioned, clients seek our views and analysis around a range of topics, including AI, and we were able to speak to these trends from firsthand experience as we thoughtfully implemented new technologies across our 6 initial work streams and around the firm more broadly.”
— David Solomon, Q1 FY2026
“We remain confident that over time, One GS 3.0 will drive stronger operating leverage, greater resilience and improved efficiency and returns and allow us to continually elevate service to our clients.”
— David Solomon, Q1 FY2026
“These investments are critical to optimizing the deployment of AI solutions across the firm, which will allow us to unlock greater productivity and efficiency opportunities over time.”
— Denis Coleman, Q1 FY2026
“Obviously, the LLM are making rapid progress, and we're hyper-aware of the enhanced capabilities of these new models.”
— David Solomon, Q1 FY2026
“With the help of the U.S. government and the model publishers, we are very focused on supplementing our cyber and infrastructure resilience and this is part of our ongoing capabilities that we have been investing in and are accelerating our investment in.”
— David Solomon, Q1 FY2026
“We have the model. We're working closely with Anthropic and all of our security vendors to kind of harness frontier capabilities wherever it's possible, and this will continue to be an important focus, but it's not new that as technology evolves, and we have to continue to upgrade for cyber risk and make sure we're at the forefront of that.”
— David Solomon, Q1 FY2026
“I am hugely forward leaning on the power of this technology to accelerate growth and efficiency in Goldman Sachs allow us to more aggressively invest in growth in areas of our business where, for a variety of reasons, over the course of the last 5 years, we've been more constrained than I think we're going to be for the next 5 years.”
— David Solomon, Q1 FY2026
“I think this is true not only with Goldman Sachs, I think this is true with lots of other businesses with enterprises broadly, and as enterprises take advantage of that, that spurs activity that feeds in the Goldman Sachs ecosystem.”
— David Solomon, Q1 FY2026
“So I do think as in other technology supercycle, this is extraordinarily constructive for Goldman Sachs.”
— David Solomon, Q1 FY2026
“But the power of the its technology, the ability to use it in an enterprise to remake processes, to create efficiencies and also create more capacity to invest in growth.”
— David Solomon, Q1 FY2026
“Our outlook is supported by a number of catalysts: corporate focus on strategically positioning scale and innovation, the tremendous public and private capital fueling growth in AI, as well as a strong pickup in sponsor activity.”
— David Solomon, Q4 FY2025
“Last quarter, we announced the launch of One Goldman Sachs 3.0, our new operating model propelled by Ella AI.”
— David Solomon, Q4 FY2025
“We are excited to embark on this effort, starting with six work streams we identified as ripe for disruption.”
— David Solomon, Q4 FY2025
“Our people have begun thorough assessments of opportunities for efficiency, and we will then invest to reengineer these processes from the ground up.”
— David Solomon, Q4 FY2025
“While the operating environment for our businesses continues to improve, we remain committed to our key strategic priority of operating more efficiently and are maintaining a rigorous focus on advancing our productivity and efficiency initiatives as part of One Goldman Sachs 3.0.”
— Dennis Coleman, Q4 FY2025
“AI and this technology is an opportunity for us to drive productivity and efficiency in the organization.”
— David Solomon, Q4 FY2025
“The thing you're talking about is our ability to, really, in the enterprise, deploy the technology to reimagine operating processes and create real efficiency.”
— David Solomon, Q4 FY2025
“And we think there is an ability to do that on a basis that would be meaningful and significant for Goldman Sachs.”
— David Solomon, Q4 FY2025
ANALYST QUESTIONS ON AI
Q (Q1 FY2026, Ebrahim Poonawala): Banks EUs were in D.C. on Friday around concerns around some of the AI-driven risks to banking infrastructure. Anything you can share with us in terms of like is this something extremely different than what banks have had to deal with over the last decade. To the extent you can share any color, I think that would be helpful. And what -- how do you perceive the risk to Goldman Sachs?
A: Obviously, the LLM are making rapid progress, and we're hyper-aware of the enhanced capabilities of these new models. With the help of the U.S. government and the model publishers, we are very focused on supplementing our cyber and infrastructure resilience and this is part of our ongoing capabilities that we have been investing in and are accelerating our investment in.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Steven Chubak): So I'm going to take this in a slightly different direction. I wanted to ask on the efficiency outlook. You'd indicated some front-loading of infrastructure investments, cloud migration in advance of AI-driven investments that you plan on making? Just given all the investments that you cited in terms of what you're deploying on the platform. How should we think about the trajectory of non-comms. That $5 billion baseline is a little bit higher than what we've seen in recent quarters. And just bigger picture, how that informs the timing for when you can reach that 60% efficiency goal or if it impacts it at all.
A: So that also features in our thinking. But at the same time, we're looking at other areas where we can reduce expenses. So there's categories of our overall operating expenses, which we're moving down by more than double-digit percentages on a period basis as we look to get more efficient.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Manan Gosalia): I just wanted to follow up on the expense question. The comp ratio on adjusted revenues was down from the usual 33% in the first quarter. I know you typically true up based on the environment at the end of the year. But is the year-on-year change so far being driven by One GS 3.0 and the AI investments you're making? And is it a signal for the direction for the full year?
A: Look, on the comp ratio, we grew our revenue significantly. And we remain, as I said earlier, very, very focused on driving the firm towards a 60% efficiency ratio.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Devin Ryan): Just another question on artificial intelligence. Obviously, I think investors are going business by business, just trying to understand implications. And so good just to hear how you're thinking about what businesses will be most impacted and just whether AI overall is an accelerant for Goldman Sachs like it has been -- or technology cycles in the past have been? And just how you're thinking about it even broad strokes would be helpful.
A: I am hugely forward leaning on the power of this technology to accelerate growth and efficiency in Goldman Sachs allow us to more aggressively invest in growth in areas of our business where, for a variety of reasons, over the course of the last 5 years, we've been more constrained than I think we're going to be for the next 5 years.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Mike Mayo): Hi. I guess it's an exciting time. This is a new era for Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs 3.0. And you're redesigning the whole firm around AI, so that could be very exciting. I'm looking for the output that you're looking for from this. I know it's early days, but whenever I ask about AI, it's always answers at the 10,000-foot level. Like, it's transformational. It's a game changer. It's a superpower. You know, we all get that. But what are you hoping to achieve? So, like, this decade, your revenues are up two-thirds. Your headcount's up one-fourth. So that's one way maybe you could frame the output that you like to achieve. But how much more in revenues? How much more in efficiency? Just you put some meat on the bones? Thank you.
A: What I promise you is you're going to get more over time as we're in a position to give you metrics, to give you targets, and to really explain it. Wanna step back at a high level. Just the one thing that I'd say, and I'd frame it slightly differently than you'd frame it, this is not a new era for Goldman Sachs. One GS 3.0 is not gonna transform the whole firm with AI.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Mike Mayo): And just as one follow-up, if we were to look at one metric for progress five years from now, would that be, like, revenues per employee? Would that be efficiency? Would it be headcount or how do you think about that?
A: I think this technology and the work we can do in One GS 3.0 creates an ability for us in the next five years to accelerate the pace of that one to get. And so that is a metric, but I don't think the only metric.