← back to rankingGMED · Globus Medical, Inc.
Medical - Devices · mkt cap $10.6B · calls: Q1 FY2026 vs Q4 FY2025
40.0 conviction · conf-adj 39
conf 5/10 partial
enthusiasm:15.0 · trend:8 · quantifies:5 · impact:0 · under_radar:14 · credibility:-5 · business_impact:4 · disruption:0 · commitment:-4 · confirmation:3
Enthusiasm latest 5 / prev 4 (rising)
GMED never says "AI"; the thesis is surgical automation—robotic navigation (ExcelsiusGPS/Hub), AR (XR), patient-specific planning/manufacturing ([script]/studio), and a newly named "surgical intelligence" / closed-loop outcomes vision. Enthusiasm is modest but rising: Q1 adds explicit intelligent-ecosystem language and FDA-cleared planning-to-robot workflow, while Q4 emphasized robotics/navigation/AR integration and utilization scale. Credibility is mixed: management quantifies enabling-tech revenue and ~10k incremental robotic cases quarter-over-quarter, but does not tie dollars, margin, or productivity to AI/"surgical intelligence" specifically—mostly competitive positioning and capital-placement strategy affecting reported enabling-tech revenue timing.
GROUNDED NEXT-FY IMPACT vs CONSENSUS
Grounded on actual base — revenue $2.9B · net income $0.5B · net margin 18.3% · diluted EPS 3.92
These are next-fiscal-year annual uplift estimates, not next-quarter numbers.
Aggregate next-FY est. rev uplift: 1.2% · next-FY EPS uplift: 1.2% · vs analysts: behind · priced in: low (model's call-read: high; verdict above is the hard-data one used for ranking) · confidence: 5/10
| Claim | Figure | Arithmetic | Next-FY Rev % | Next-FY EPS % |
|---|
Cumulative Excelsius robotic procedures ~130k (Q1'26)
engagement · soft | almost 130,000 cumulative procedures | Cumulative usage stat, not a revenue figure. ~10k added vs the 120k Q4'25 reading; drives implant/consumable pull-through but no disclosed per-procedure $ -> cannot anchor to a next-FY dollar figure. | | |
Cumulative robotic/enabling procedures >120k (Q4'25)
engagement · soft | over 120,000 | Prior reading of the same cumulative metric. No revenue base disclosed; informational only. | | |
Enabling Technologies revenue $26.9M Q1'26, +21% YoY
revenue | $26.9M, +21% | This IS the AI/robotics segment. Q1'26 $26.9M (+21%) and Q4'25 $55.6M (+18.5%) imply an est. full-year Enabling Tech base ~$180M growing ~19% -> incremental ~$34M next FY. $34M/$2,938.9M = 1.2%. @ company net margin 18.3% -> incr NI ~$6.2M/$537.9M = 1.2% EPS (~+$0.05). Segment growth disclosed/HARD; annual base estimated from the two quarters. | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Enabling Technologies revenue $55.6M Q4'25, +18.5% YoY
revenue | $55.6M, +18.5% | Same Enabling Tech segment (record capital/EGPS quarter). Used to anchor the annual base in the row above; NOT aggregated separately to avoid double-counting the segment uplift. | | |
Record ExcelsiusGPS dollar & unit sales Q4'25
engagement · soft | record sales (no number) | Qualitative 'record' with no incremental $ beyond the $55.6M already captured. | | |
95%+ 10-year surgical outcomes target
other · soft | 95% or better (long-term goal) | Outcome target with no revenue, cost, or margin bridge -> unanchored. | | |
R&D 5-6% of net sales, FY26 (ramping)
cost | 5-6% of net sales | 5.5% of $2,938.9M = ~$162M (range ~$147M-$176M). An INVESTMENT envelope being RAMPED ('doubling down'), i.e. an EPS headwind, not a saving -> anchored figure but produces no positive rev/EPS pct. | | |
Assumptions: Side=adopter (GMED sells its own robotics/spine products; no AI-compute supplier revenue). Next FY=FY2026. Incremental margin=company net margin 18.3% (capital+robotics ~ corporate margin; surgical-intelligence software higher but immaterial today); tax embedded in net margin. Phasing: full incremental Enabling Tech growth recognized next FY (recurring segment, not bookings/backlog). Full-year Enabling Tech base estimated ~$180M from disclosed Q4'25 $55.6M + Q1'26 $26.9M and ~18-21% growth; only the incremental (~$34M) counted, once. EPS% vs NI $537.9M / diluted EPS $3.92 (~consensus base $3.85). R&D guidance treated as cost ramp, excluded from positive uplift. Procedure counts excluded (soft).
Top line: Modest and direct. The AI initiative IS the Enabling Technologies segment (Excelsius robotics): $26.9M Q1'26 (+21%), $55.6M Q4'25 (+18.5%). On an est. ~$180M annual base growing ~19%, that's ~$34M incremental next FY = ~1.2% of $2,938.9M total revenue — roughly one-eighth of consensus FY26 dollar revenue growth (+$264M, +9.0%). The ~130k cumulative procedures pull through implants/consumables but carry no disclosed per-procedure $, so stay unquantified.
Bottom line: At company net margin (18.3%), ~$34M incremental flows to ~$6.2M net income = ~1.2% of $537.9M (~+$0.05 EPS) — same % as revenue since no margin lift assumed. Partly offset by the explicit R&D ramp to 5-6% of net sales (~$162M, 'doubling down'), an investment that pressures near-term EPS rather than a saving. Net direct AI EPS impact is small. No quantified opex/productivity savings.
Consensus FY26 revenue $3,203.1M is +9.0% on the $2,938.9M base (~$264M incremental); the AI/Enabling Tech segment supplies only ~$34M (~1.2pp). Consensus FY26 EPS $4.74 is +21-23% vs the $3.92 GAAP/$3.85 consensus base — far above the ~1.2% the AI segment contributes directly. Enabling Technologies is a long-reported, modeled segment, so its ~19% growth is already embedded; surgical-intelligence/outcomes narratives carry no $ bridge. The directly attributable AI math sits well below the dollar growth consensus already requires.
MODEL CONSENSUS (impact)
partial
Both size the AI impact as the Enabling Tech segment, ~$34M / ~1.2% rev & EPS, high priced-in; differed only on verdict and minor rounding.
Conflicts reconciled
- est_rev_uplift_pct: X=1.11 vs Y=1.2 -> used 1.2 (Y's annual-base method ~$180M*19% is cleaner; X's two-quarter aggregate convoluted; avg ~1.16)
- est_eps_uplift_pct: X=1.11 vs Y=1.2 -> used 1.2 (same)
- vs_analyst_expectations: X=behind vs Y=inline -> used behind (more conservative; AI contributes only ~1/8 of required revenue growth)
- confidence: X=5 vs Y=6 -> used 5 (lowered on verdict conflict)
| Field | Opus 4.8 | GPT-5.5 |
|---|
| Rev uplift % | 1.2 | – |
| EPS uplift % | 1.2 | – |
| Priced in | high | – |
| vs analysts | inline | – |
| Confidence | 6 | – |
| Top line | Modest and direct. The AI initiative IS the Enabling Technologies segment (Excelsius robotics): $26.9M Q1'26 (+21%), $55.6M Q4'25 (+18.5%). On an est. ~$180M annual base growing ~19%, that's ~$34M incremental next FY = ~1.2% of $2,938.9M total revenue. The ~130k cumulative procedures pull through implants/consumables (an indirect tailwind) but carry no disclosed per-procedure $, so they stay unquantified. | – |
| Bottom line | At company net margin (18.3%), ~$34M incremental flows to ~$6.2M net income = ~1.2% of $537.9M, or ~+$0.05 EPS — essentially the same as the revenue % since no margin lift is assumed. This is partly offset by the explicit R&D ramp to 5-6% of net sales (~$162M, 'doubling down' on Spine/Enabling Tech R&D), an investment that pressures near-term EPS rather than a saving. Net direct AI EPS impact is small and roughly neutral once the spend ramp is netted. | – |
| Reasoning | Consensus FY26 revenue $3,203.1M is +9.0% on the $2,938.9M base (~$264M incremental); the AI/Enabling Tech segment supplies only ~$34M (~1.2pp) of that, with the rest core spine/implant. Consensus FY26 EPS $4.74 is +21-23% vs the $3.92 GAAP / $3.85 consensus base — far above the ~1.2% the AI segment contributes directly. Enabling Technologies is a long-reported, modeled segment, so its ~19% growth is already embedded; the math points to no surprise above consensus. | – |
Rows highlighted where the two models disagreed.
QUANTIFICATIONS
Cumulative robotic procedures (Excelsius): almost 130,000 (to date (as of Q1 FY2026), topline)
“To date, we've seen almost 130,000 robotic procedures and we'll continue to penetrate the market to launch new successful programs that foster utilization.”
Cumulative robotic/enabling procedures: over 120,000 (to date (as of Q4 FY2025), topline)
“To date, we've seen over 120,000 procedures and will continue to drive adoption as we move forward.”
Enabling Technologies revenue: $26.9 million, growing 21% (Q1 FY2026 vs prior-year quarter, topline)
“Our first quarter saw Enabling Technologies post revenue of $26.9 million, growing 21% over the prior year quarter.”
Enabling Technologies revenue: $55.6 million, growing 18.5% (Q4 FY2025 vs prior-year quarter, topline)
“Q4 Enabling Technology sales were $55.6 million, growing 18.5% versus the prior year quarter, driven by increased sales of EGPS systems.”
ExcelsiusGPS unit sales (record): record sales in terms of dollars and units (Q4 FY2025, topline)
“Enabling Technologies achieved record sales in terms of dollars and units for both the total capital portfolio and our ExcelsiusGPS robotic system.”
Stated surgical-outcomes target: 95% or better (10-year surgical outcomes) (long-term product-development goal, both)
“integrating imaging, navigation, robotics, surgical intelligence and implants in a more thoughtful way to improve 10-year surgical outcomes to 95% or better.”
R&D spend (robotics/enabling investment envelope): 5% to 6% of net sales (FY2026 expectation, bottomline)
“we expect R&D expense to be in the range of 5% to 6% of net sales as we ramp spend to further invest in innovation and technological advances in the spine, orthopedic, robotic and the broader musculoskeletal market.”
PAST (realized)
- Q1 FY2026 / Keith Pfeil: To date, we've seen almost 130,000 robotic procedures and we'll continue to penetrate the market to launch new successful programs that foster utilization.
- Q4 FY2025 / Keith Pfeil: To date, we've seen over 120,000 procedures and will continue to drive adoption as we move forward.
- Q4 FY2025 / Kyle Kline: Enabling Technologies achieved record sales in terms of dollars and units for both the total capital portfolio and our ExcelsiusGPS robotic system.
- Q1 FY2026 / Keith Pfeil: early in our second quarter, we received two FDA 510(k) clearances for both our patient-specific [ script ] spacer system ... as well as patient-specific [ script ] rods.
CURRENT (now)
- Q1 FY2026 / Keith Pfeil: Our first quarter saw Enabling Technologies post revenue of $26.9 million, growing 21% over the prior year quarter.
- Q1 FY2026 / Keith Pfeil: Robotics pull-through remains a key driver.
- Q1 FY2026 / Keith Pfeil: Strategically, we are slightly altering our approach to capturing more accounts and expand upon surgeon and rep training, thus driving success at accounts with Enabling Technologies.
- Q1 FY2026 / Keith Pfeil: The team is working tirelessly to finalize the launch plan to bring these new exciting products to market shortly.
- Q4 FY2025 / Keith Pfeil: Q4 Enabling Technology sales were $55.6 million, growing 18.5% versus the prior year quarter, driven by increased sales of EGPS systems.
FORWARD (guidance)
- Q1 FY2026 / Keith Pfeil: Our approach to product development will remain focused on a ground-up mindset that is procedure-enabling, integrating imaging, navigation, robotics, surgical intelligence and implants in a more thoughtful way to improve 10-year surgical outcomes to 95% or better.
- Q1 FY2026 / Keith Pfeil: Surgical intelligence will focus on bringing together patient selection, surgical techniques and complementary implants with technology to drive the proceduralization while creating a closed loop intelligent ecosystem to help surgeons continuously drive outcomes higher.
- Q1 FY2026 / Keith Pfeil: it's really coming down to more refined software and how the software performs in the OR, Interbody Fusion. I think about DuraPro, integrating DuraPro and additional cranial procedures.
- Q1 FY2026 / Keith Pfeil: we're going to be spending more on R&D. We're going to be doubling down in Spine R&D, Enabling Tech R&D.
- Q4 FY2025 / Kyle Kline: we expect R&D expense to be in the range of 5% to 6% of net sales as we ramp spend to further invest in innovation and technological advances in the spine, orthopedic, robotic and the broader musculoskeletal market.
- Q4 FY2025 / Keith Pfeil: A key focal point in 2026 is to penetrate and launch new programs and foster utilization and service excellence across the installed base.
TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY
38/100 track record mixed 6 calls reviewed
Globus seldom makes quantified AI or enabling-tech commitments; the few dated targets in this window (XR FDA timing, EFlex portfolio by early 2026) show slip or quiet drop rather than clear delivery, with most robotics/AR progress reported only as cumulative procedure counts.
FDA 510(k) clearance for Excelsius XR augmented-reality navigation headset in Q1 — promised Q4 FY2024
partial ExcelsiusXR was not cleared in Q1; management launched the wearable XR navigation headset in Q3 FY2025, roughly two quarters after the stated Q1 target.
Complete EFlex primary knee procedure portfolio modernization by early 2026 — promised Q3 FY2025
quietly-dropped After stating they were seeking completion by early 2026, later calls (Q4 FY2025, Q1 FY2026) did not report completion or reaffirm the milestone while focusing on demos, Scripts, and spine enabling tech instead.
PRICED-IN (REFINED)
LOW (room left)Est. revisions flat · Fwd P/E 20.5 · EV/Sales 3.3x
AI claim maps to Emerging Technology
Analyst sentiment is not migrating up: strongBuy counts fell from 5 to 3 over six months while buy/hold were stable, and price targets were flat at $110 over the last month and quarter (only above the $103.73 year-ago average). Forward consensus still embeds solid but not extreme growth (FY26 revenue +10%, EPS +23% vs FY25), while valuation is moderate at ~20.5x next-FY EPS and ~3.3x EV/Sales—not rich enough to imply AI is fully capitalized. AI/robotics upside would most plausibly flow through Emerging Technology (~6% of revenue), a small line where aggregate multiples leave room if the thesis surprises.
COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS
5Q4 FY20245Q1 FY20254Q2 FY20255Q3 FY20255Q4 FY20257Q1 FY2026
AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend ↗ rising
Robotics and AR dominated early calls; Q1 FY26 added patient-specific Scripts planning software tied to Excelsius, with Nevro adaptive AI never developed.
RECENT AI CATALYSTS & NEWS
BUSINESS IMPACT - QUALITATIVE MATERIALITY
5/10 qualitative impact moderate medium-term · mixed evidence
Where AI matters: spine robotics, navigation, patient-specific planning
Excelsius/Scripts and Enabling Technologies show real, quantified adoption (~$180M segment growing ~19%, ~130k procedures) with implant pull-through, but it is still a low-single-digit share of ~$3B sales and management does not tie margin or growth to AI or surgical intelligence specifically.
Caveats: Enabling Technologies remains a small slice of consolidated revenue; R&D ramp to 5-6% of sales pressures near-term EPS; Surgical-intelligence/outcomes narrative lacks a dollar bridge; Competitive hospital re-evaluation and elongated capital deals
AI DISRUPTION / CANNIBALIZATION RISK tailwind · 2/10
GMED monetizes regulated implants and capital robotics where automation and software raise differentiation and utilization, not billable hours; competitive robotics and planning software pressure pricing but do not commoditize the core physical procedure bundle.
OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE
option liquidity: fair
proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $108M · beta 1.003 · px $78.92
source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.
CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE
Mixed — insiders selling, institutions adding, management language 2/10 hedged.
INSIDERS selling 5 open-market sell(s) vs 0 buy(s) — net distribution
INSTITUTIONS (13F) adding as of 2026-03-31: 104 new / 66 closed positions; 334 increased / 182 reduced; institutional ownership -1.63pp; +29 net 13F holders
MGMT LANGUAGE 2/10 hedged No AI/ML language; robotics and planning software only, with firm utilization metrics but no AI driver framing.
commit “Robotics pull-through remains a key driver.”
commit “To date, we've seen almost 130,000 robotic procedures and we'll continue to penetrate the market”
commit “Enabling Technologies post revenue of $26.9 million, growing 21% over the prior year quarter.”
VERBATIM AI QUOTES
“Robotics pull-through remains a key driver.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q1 FY2026
“Despite new and enhanced robotic competitors in our space, ExcelsiusGPS remains a standard for ease and simplicity with our floor-mounted navigation-based robotic approach.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q1 FY2026
“To date, we've seen almost 130,000 robotic procedures and we'll continue to penetrate the market to launch new successful programs that foster utilization.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q1 FY2026
“Both the [ script ] spacers and rods are designed by surgeons using the [ scripts ] studio design and surgical planning software application.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q1 FY2026
“[ Script ] lumbar spacers are static, static integrated and expandable thoracolumbar interbody fusion devices, additively manufactured with patient-matched endplate topography for maximum stability.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q1 FY2026
“[ Scripts ] studio screw plans can be uploaded to our ExcelsiusGPS and ExcelsiusHub systems for robotically navigated screw placement intraoperatively.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q1 FY2026
“Our platform keeps the position at the center of the planning process with an intuitive interface, allowing the surgeon to efficiently fine-tune disc height restoration, spinal alignment and pedicle screw placement, translating their precise clinical intent directly into the implant design.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q1 FY2026
“Our software is treated as an advanced tool rather than a replacement for clinical judgment, ensuring the implant perfectly executes to the surgeon's operative strategy.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q1 FY2026
“integrating with our Excelsius suite, thus ensuring final placement matches the digital preop plan to ensure proper navigated placement.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q1 FY2026
“Our approach to product development will remain focused on a ground-up mindset that is procedure-enabling, integrating imaging, navigation, robotics, surgical intelligence and implants in a more thoughtful way to improve 10-year surgical outcomes to 95% or better.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q1 FY2026
“Surgical intelligence will focus on bringing together patient selection, surgical techniques and complementary implants with technology to drive the proceduralization while creating a closed loop intelligent ecosystem to help surgeons continuously drive outcomes higher.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q1 FY2026
“it's really coming down to more refined software and how the software performs in the OR, Interbody Fusion. I think about DuraPro, integrating DuraPro and additional cranial procedures.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q1 FY2026
“AMS Freehand is a software and instrumentation systems to use all of our AMS spacer portfolio with the EGPS and EHUB systems.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q4 FY2025
“The Excelsius platform, which delivers a single vendor spine ecosystem across capital, implants and software provides for consistent workflow, data continuity and training across the OR.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q4 FY2025
“Globus continues to stand alone when it comes to effortlessly pairing imaging, navigation and robotics together.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q4 FY2025
“If the surgeon desires freehand navigation, they can combine the ExcelsiusHub and the XR augmented reality headset with the E3D imaging system.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q4 FY2025
“utilizing IP-protected advanced navigation features essential for safety, including surveillance markers, deflection and offset meters as well as a tracked and effector.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q4 FY2025
“To date, we've seen over 120,000 procedures and will continue to drive adoption as we move forward.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q4 FY2025
“Enabling Technologies have and will remain a vital part of our ecosystem as we view it as the execution layer, helping to achieve improved surgical outcomes.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q4 FY2025
“We sit here today with the ability to focus and invest where we see fit, to expand our core spine business while growing others and see ourselves as a procedure-enabling MedTech platform that integrates imaging, navigation, robotics and implants in a more thoughtful way to foster continuous learning and continuous improvement for ourselves as well as our surgeons.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q4 FY2025
“It's bringing together patient selection, surgical techniques and complementary implants with technology to drive the proceduralization while creating a closed-loop system.”
— Keith Pfeil, Q4 FY2025
“we expect R&D expense to be in the range of 5% to 6% of net sales as we ramp spend to further invest in innovation and technological advances in the spine, orthopedic, robotic and the broader musculoskeletal market.”
— Kyle Kline, Q4 FY2025
ANALYST QUESTIONS ON AI
Q (Q1 FY2026, Andrew Ranieri (TD Cowen)): as you're looking at ExcelsiusGPS development road map, how are you kind of thinking about the system evolving since you're stepping up on R&D spend? ... is the focus still to broaden applications or end effectors? Or are you focused more on efficiencies? ... does that bring more surgeons into the fold about using robotics in spine surgery?
A: Keith Pfeil: it's really coming down to more refined software and how the software performs in the OR, Interbody Fusion. I think about DuraPro, integrating DuraPro and additional cranial procedures. That's what we're thinking about as we move forward in terms of enhancing the software.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Matthew Miksic (Barclays)): robot demand, hospital investments and robot platforms.
A: Keith Pfeil: healthy environment; strong pipeline converted in Q1; large pipeline ahead with higher mix of leases and rentals quoted; durable market, will aggressively pursue the remainder of the year.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Matthew Miksic (Barclays)): any shift in competitive dynamics ... from ... traditional larger players in spine in the U.S.
A: Keith Pfeil: competing mainly against Medtronic; deal closing elongated as hospitals re-evaluate offerings; Excelsius still very well positioned—ground-up design, broad FDA clearances, end effector tracking; competitors not catching up to Excelsius reliability, ease, or workflow.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Travis Steed (BMA Securities)): One of your competitors recently launched a new Enabling Tech robot navigation system ... how you're contemplating that if you see that as a competitive portion of the market or not?
A: Keith Pfeil: competition continues to evolve; Excelsius remains a great option; recent competitive offerings reinforced the 2017 floor-mounted navigation-based robotic approach; best-in-class features; combining technology with more aggressive placement positions Globus well for 2026.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Richard Newitter (Truist Securities)): operating lease strategy or more of a placement strategy ... What's contemplated in your guidance for '26 on that front?
A: Keith Pfeil / Kyle Kline: placement to drive implant pull-through; expect higher mix of leases/placements in 2026 than 2025; guidance contemplates mix of sales, fair market value leases, and placements.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Caitlin Cronin (Canaccord Genuity)): Enabling Tech, are you still seeing elongated deals or time lines compressing there?
A: Keith Pfeil: Q4 pipeline deals closed; rebuilding pipeline into Q1; cautiously optimistic elongation won't be as long as last year given more flexible quoting.