← back to rankingGM · General Motors Company
Auto - Manufacturers · mkt cap $73.7B · calls: Q1 FY2026 vs Q4 FY2025
64.0 conviction · conf-adj 64
conf 6/10 partial
enthusiasm:24.0 · trend:8 · quantifies:5 · impact:0 · under_radar:5 · credibility:5 · business_impact:8 · disruption:0 · commitment:6 · confirmation:3
Enthusiasm latest 8 / prev 7 (rising)
GM's AI thesis is that autonomy/Super Cruise and SDV-enabled services create recurring high-margin revenue, while AI also improves engineering and manufacturing productivity. Credibility improved in the latest call because management added concrete operating proof points: 1 billion hands-free miles, 850,000 expected Super Cruise subscribers, daily simulation capacity, on-road testing, and nearly 90% AI-generated autonomy-team code. The business impact is quantified, but revenue disclosures often bundle Super Cruise with broader OnStar digital services rather than isolating pure AI revenue.
GROUNDED NEXT-FY IMPACT vs CONSENSUS
Grounded on actual base — revenue $185.0B · net income $2.7B · net margin 1.5% · diluted EPS 3.27
These are next-fiscal-year annual uplift estimates, not next-quarter numbers.
Aggregate next-FY est. rev uplift: 0.2195% · next-FY EPS uplift: 1.599% · vs analysts: inline · priced in: medium (model's call-read: high; verdict above is the hard-data one used for ranking) · confidence: 6/10
| Claim | Figure | Arithmetic | Next-FY Rev % | Next-FY EPS % |
|---|
OnStar digital services recognized rev $3.1B, +15% YoY (CY2026)
revenue | $3.1B, +15% YoY | prior=3.1B/1.15=$2.696B; next-FY increment=$404.3M. rev=404.3M/185,019M=0.218%. Incremental net margin 40% (avg of X's 50% and Y's 30%, both defensible for 'high-margin' connected services): $161.7M/$10,129M adj NI=1.60% EPS. SINGLE sized adopter impact; all OnStar sub-claims below are components of this stream, counted ONCE here. | 0.218 | 1.6 |
~$400M high-margin rev increase from OnStar software & services incl Super Cruise (2026)
revenue | ~$400M increase | ≈ the $404M OnStar increment above (same stream); the explicit YoY figure management gave. Counted ONCE via the recognized-revenue anchor — not additive. | | |
OnStar digital services rev >$750M in Q1, +20% YoY
revenue | >$750M Q1, +20% | Q1 slice of the same annual $3.1B stream (~$750M*4≈$3.0B run-rate). Y's lower bound: 750/1.20=$625M PY, +$125M Q1 increment — already inside the annual $404M increment. Not additive. | | |
Digital services 13M subscribers by end-2026 (+1M YoY), ARPU ~$20/mo
revenue | 13M subs (+1M), $20 ARPU | 13M*$20*12=$3.12B reconstructs the $3.1B recognized rev. +1M subs at $20/mo linear ramp ≈ $120M in-year (Y) — a driver of, and inside, the $404M increment. Anchored but not additive. | | |
Super Cruise subscribers exceed 850,000 by end-2026 (vs >120,000 in 2025)
engagement | >850k subs | Super Cruise revenue is a COMPONENT of the OnStar $3.1B stream. Y standalone: 730k incremental, ~365k avg linear ramp, $20/mo -> ~$88M (0.047% rev). Sits inside the $404M increment; sizing separately would double-count. | | |
Super Cruise renewal trend 30%->40%
engagement · soft | 30%->40% renewal | Take-rate; expiring cohort not disclosed and the 850k target already captures the net subscriber outcome. No separable $ base. | | |
Super Cruise post-trial attachment ~40%
engagement · soft | ~40% attach | Eligible post-trial cohort not disclosed; using total subs would double-count the 850k target. Unanchored. | | |
1 billion Super Cruise hands-free miles
engagement · soft | 1B miles | Usage/training-data milestone; no $/mile or conversion disclosed. Feeds 2028 eyes-off roadmap, not next-FY P&L. | | |
Digital services deferred revenue $5.8B Q1 -> approach $7.5B CY2026 (+35-40%)
other | $5.8B -> ~$7.5B | BOOKINGS/balance-sheet item, not P&L revenue. The portion recognized in 2026 is already inside the $3.1B recognized-revenue anchor. Y's 3-yr ratable estimate (~$650-667M/yr) is illustrative only — NOT additive, else it double-counts recognized rev. Leading indicator. | | |
Nearly 90% of autonomy code AI-generated
productivity · soft | ~90% AI-generated | No autonomy engineering labor-cost base or productivity-to-savings conversion disclosed in any input. Unanchored. | | |
Autonomy simulation ~100 years of driving per day
productivity · soft | ~100 yrs/day | Simulation throughput disclosed, but no avoided road-test cost or engineering base disclosed. Long-dated (2028 launch), not next-FY P&L. | | |
Combustion sim: 1/3 development time; 20% material & tooling cost savings
cost · soft | 1/3 time, 20% savings | Real engineering saving, but the material/tooling cost base for the program is not disclosed in any input, so the 20% has no denominator. Bottom-line in spirit, unanchored in dollars. | | |
2,500 robots & cobots controlled by GM Design Software
productivity · soft | 2,500 units | Manufacturing-automation capability; no $ base or timeframe to size. | | |
2nd-gen SDV: 10x OTA capacity, 1000x bandwidth (2028 launch)
other · soft | 10x / 1000x | Capability enabler for 2028 eyes-off + future OTA monetization. No next-FY revenue/cost figure. | | |
Eyes-off/hands-off autonomy launching 2028 on Escalade IQ
other · soft | 2028 launch | Strategic optionality 2+ years out; no quantified near-term revenue. Unanchored for sizing. | | |
OnStar 12M subs (2025); OnStarFleet 2M subscriptions
revenue | 12M / 2M | Installed base already in the 2025 revenue base (12M*$20*12=$2.88B); next-FY incremental uplift = 0. | 0 | 0 |
Super Cruise >120,000 subscribers (2025)
revenue | >120k subs | Already in 2025 base (120k*$20*12=$28.8M); next-FY uplift = 0. | 0 | 0 |
Super Cruise ~80% YoY subscriber growth (2024->2025)
revenue | ~80% YoY | 120k/1.8=66.7k 2024 subs; +53.3k -> ~$12.8M, already captured in the 2025 base; 0 next-FY uplift. | 0 | 0 |
Assumptions: Earnings basis: GM GAAP NI ($2.697B, 1.46% margin) is depressed by 2025 EV/restructuring/China charges, so per EARNINGS-BASIS and THIN-MARGIN rules EPS uplift is sized against ADJUSTED NI (~$10,129M, behind the $10.345 adj EPS), NOT GAAP (off GAAP the same $200M reads a misleading ~7%). Incremental net margin on software/services = 40% (average of X's 50% and Y's 30%, both defensible for 'high-margin' connected services). Tax 21% where relevant. Phasing: only the disclosed CY2026 YoY increment (~$400-404M) is taken, not the full $3.1B base. All OnStar sub-claims (Q1 $750M, 13M subs, Super Cruise 850k, ARPU, deferred revenue) are COMPONENTS of the single recognized-revenue stream and are nulled to avoid double-counting; the aggregate counts the ~$404M increment ONCE -> est_rev_uplift_pct~0.218, est_eps_uplift_pct~1.6. Deferred revenue is bookings, not additive P&L. Prior-year/installed-base figures contribute 0 next-FY uplift.
Top line: Modest. The only HARD, anchored next-FY AI/software revenue is the ~$400M YoY increase in OnStar software & services (incl. Super Cruise) — equivalently the $3.1B recognized-revenue guide up 15% (increment = 3.1B - 3.1B/1.15 = $404M). Against $185.0B total revenue that is +0.22%, a rounding error on GM's auto base. Subscriber scale (13M digital, >850k Super Cruise, +80% YoY), $7.5B deferred revenue and 1B hands-free miles are real momentum but either roll into that same $400M or are bookings/usage indicators, not additive 2026 revenue.
Bottom line: Where the AI story is most credible but still small in absolute terms: the ~$400M is high-margin, so @50% incremental net margin it drops ~$200M to adjusted net income = ~2.0% of the ~$10.13B adjusted base. The engineering-productivity claims (90% AI-generated autonomy code, ~100 yrs sim/day, combustion sim at 1/3 the time, 20% material/tooling savings, 2,500 robots) are genuine cost/cycle-time levers but carry NO disclosed dollar base in the inputs, so none can be sized — they stay soft. The 2028 eyes-off autonomy program is optionality, not 2026 earnings.
Consensus already embeds this. FY2026 consensus revenue ($185.92B) is essentially flat vs FY2025 ($185.91B, +0.002%), so a +0.22% / $400M software lift sits comfortably inside the existing line. Consensus expects adjusted net income to rise $10.13B -> $12.77B (+$2.64B, +26%; EPS $10.345 -> $12.797, +23.7%) — but the high-margin AI piece (~$200M) is only ~7.6% of that $2.64B NI increase, meaning the overwhelming majority of consensus EPS growth is non-AI (pricing, cost-out, restructuring roll-off). Management gave these exact figures ($3.1B, ~$400M) as guidance, so the 14-17 analysts have them in-model. Real, high-margin, growing — but small and already in the numbers.
MODEL CONSENSUS (impact)
partial
Single sized adopter impact: ~$404M OnStar increment, 0.218% rev / 1.6% EPS at 40% incr margin. Other OnStar claims are components nulled to avoid double-count; productivity/2028 claims unanchored.
Conflicts reconciled
- eps_uplift_pct (OnStar $3.1B increment): X=2.0 (50% incr margin) vs Y=1.198 (30%) -> used 1.6 at 40%, the average of two defensible high-margin assumptions
- Q1 $750M / 13M subs / Super Cruise 850k / deferred rev: X=null (components of $3.1B, not additive) vs Y=sized standalone -> used null pcts to avoid double-counting the recognized-revenue anchor (Y's figures retained in basis)
- installed-base rows (12M subs, 120k SC, ~80% growth): X=null/soft vs Y=0/soft=false -> used 0 (anchored, zero next-FY increment) per Y
| Field | Opus 4.8 | GPT-5.5 |
|---|
| Rev uplift % | 0.22 | 0.219 |
| EPS uplift % | 2.0 | 1.198 |
| Priced in | high | high |
| vs analysts | inline | inline |
| Confidence | 6 | 6 |
| Top line | Modest. The only HARD, anchored next-FY AI/software revenue is the ~$400M YoY increase in OnStar software & services (incl. Super Cruise) — equivalently the $3.1B recognized-revenue guide up 15% (increment = 3.1B - 3.1B/1.15 = $404M). Against $185.0B total revenue that is +0.22%, a rounding error on GM's auto base. Subscriber scale (13M digital, >850k Super Cruise, +80% YoY), $7.5B deferred revenue and 1B hands-free miles are real momentum but either roll into that same $400M or are bookings/usage indicators, not additive 2026 revenue. | The cleanest non-duplicative next-FY anchor is the 2026 OnStar digital-services recognized revenue guide: $3.1B, up 15%, implying $404.3M of incremental revenue, or 0.219% of GM's $185.019B revenue base. The separate $400M high-margin OnStar/Super Cruise claim corroborates this at 0.216% of revenue. Subscriber and Super Cruise math are smaller subcomponents and overlap the same revenue pool. |
| Bottom line | Where the AI story is most credible but still small in absolute terms: the ~$400M is high-margin, so @50% incremental net margin it drops ~$200M to adjusted net income = ~2.0% of the ~$10.13B adjusted base. The engineering-productivity claims (90% AI-generated autonomy code, ~100 yrs sim/day, combustion sim at 1/3 the time, 20% material/tooling savings, 2,500 robots) are genuine cost/cycle-time levers but carry NO disclosed dollar base in the inputs, so none can be sized — they stay soft. The 2028 eyes-off autonomy program is optionality, not 2026 earnings. | At a 30% incremental software net margin, the $404.3M recognized-revenue increase contributes about $121.3M of net income, equal to 1.198% of the $10.129B adjusted earnings base, or roughly $0.12-$0.13 per diluted share using 973M shares. The operational AI claims may matter, but the disclosed figures lack cost bases, so they are soft rather than quantifiable. |
| Reasoning | Consensus already embeds this. FY2026 consensus revenue ($185.92B) is essentially flat vs FY2025 ($185.91B, +0.002%), so a +0.22% / $400M software lift sits comfortably inside the existing line. Consensus expects adjusted net income to rise $10.13B -> $12.77B (+$2.64B, +26%; EPS $10.345 -> $12.797, +23.7%) — but the high-margin AI piece (~$200M) is only ~7.6% of that $2.64B NI increase, meaning the overwhelming majority of consensus EPS growth is non-AI (pricing, cost-out, restructuring roll-off). Management gave these exact figures ($3.1B, ~$400M) as guidance, so the 14-17 analysts have them in-model. Real, high-margin, growing — but small and already in the numbers. | Consensus 2026 revenue is $185.917B versus $185.913B for 2025, only +$3.9M or +0.002%, so the $404M digital-services lift is likely being offset by non-AI auto headwinds in the model. Consensus EPS rises from $10.345 to $12.797, +23.7%, and consensus net income rises by about $2.637B; the quantified AI/software EPS contribution of about $121M is only 4.6% of that expected net-income growth. Because the key $3.1B/$400M 2026 software revenue guide is public management guidance, the impact looks largely reflected in consensus. |
Rows highlighted where the two models disagreed.
QUANTIFICATIONS
Super Cruise hands-free miles: 1 billion (as of Q1 FY2026 call, topline)
“Our customers have now driven 1 billion hands-free miles and our subscription performance is on pace to exceed 850,000 subscribers by the end of the year with strong renewal trends in the 30% to 40% range.”
Super Cruise subscribers: exceed 850,000 (by the end of 2026, topline)
“Our customers have now driven 1 billion hands-free miles and our subscription performance is on pace to exceed 850,000 subscribers by the end of the year with strong renewal trends in the 30% to 40% range.”
Super Cruise renewal trends: 30% to 40% (Q1 FY2026 call, topline)
“Our customers have now driven 1 billion hands-free miles and our subscription performance is on pace to exceed 850,000 subscribers by the end of the year with strong renewal trends in the 30% to 40% range.”
Autonomy simulation capacity: roughly 100 years of human driving every single day (current, bottomline)
“We're stress testing it in the digital environment capable of simulating roughly 100 years of human driving every single day.”
AI-generated autonomy code: nearly 90% (current, bottomline)
“Today, nearly 90% of the code written by our autonomy team is generated by AI.”
OnStar digital services recognized revenue: over $750 million, up over 20% year-over-year (Q1 FY2026, topline)
“In Q1, we saw recognized revenue of over $750 million, up over 20% year-over-year.”
OnStar digital services recognized revenue: $3.1 billion, up 15% year-over-year (calendar year 2026, topline)
“For the calendar year, we expect $3.1 billion of recognized revenue, up 15% year-over-year.”
Digital services subscribers: 13 million (by the end of 2026, topline)
“We are on track to reach 13 million subscribers by the end of 2026, up by $1 million year-over-year with a monthly average revenue per subscriber of around $20.”
Digital services ARPU: around $20 (by the end of 2026, topline)
“We are on track to reach 13 million subscribers by the end of 2026, up by $1 million year-over-year with a monthly average revenue per subscriber of around $20.”
Digital services deferred revenue: $5.8 billion, up $2 billion or over 50% year-over-year (Q1 FY2026, topline)
“In Q1, the deferred revenue balance ended at $5.8 billion, up $2 billion or over 50% year-over-year.”
Digital services deferred revenue: approach $7.5 billion, up more than 35% year-over-year (calendar year 2026, topline)
“For the calendar year, we expect deferred revenue to approach $7.5 billion, up more than 35% year-over-year.”
Super Cruise post-trial attachment rate: about that 40% (Q1 FY2026 call, topline)
“So what I would say, Mark, we're continuing to trend at about that 40% attachment rate after the subscription period and we do it differently, right?”
OnStar subscribers: 12 million (2025, topline)
“In 2025, OnStar had a record 12 million subscribers, including more than 120,000 Super Cruise subscribers, achieving nearly 80% year-over-year growth.”
Super Cruise subscribers: more than 120,000 (2025, topline)
“In 2025, OnStar had a record 12 million subscribers, including more than 120,000 Super Cruise subscribers, achieving nearly 80% year-over-year growth.”
Super Cruise subscriber growth: nearly 80% year-over-year growth (2025, topline)
“In 2025, OnStar had a record 12 million subscribers, including more than 120,000 Super Cruise subscribers, achieving nearly 80% year-over-year growth.”
OnStarFleet subscriptions: 2 million (2025, topline)
“OnStarFleet subscriptions hit 2 million, which is two times any other competitor.”
Software and services deferred revenue: approximately $7.5 billion, up nearly 40% from 2025 (by the end of 2026, topline)
“We expect our deferred revenue from software and services to be approximately $7.5 billion by the end of this year up nearly 40% from 2025.”
Combustion simulation development time: a third of the time versus the prior program (Q4 FY2025 call, bottomline)
“We reached our performance and emission goals at a third of the time versus the prior program by conducting thousands of combustion chamber simulations while we reduce prototyping for a 20% savings in material and tooling costs.”
Combustion simulation material and tooling cost savings: 20% savings (Q4 FY2025 call, bottomline)
“We reached our performance and emission goals at a third of the time versus the prior program by conducting thousands of combustion chamber simulations while we reduce prototyping for a 20% savings in material and tooling costs.”
Robots and cobots controlled by GM Design Software: 2,500 (future convergence, bottomline)
“Our robotics and AI work will converge at 2,500 robot and cobots controlled by GM Design Software.”
SDV OTA capacity: 10 times more OTA capacity (2028 launch, both)
“The performance upgrade includes 10 times more OTA capacity and a thousand times more bandwidth, allowing our vehicles to get better smarter, and deliver more value to our customers over time.”
SDV bandwidth: a thousand times more bandwidth (2028 launch, both)
“The performance upgrade includes 10 times more OTA capacity and a thousand times more bandwidth, allowing our vehicles to get better smarter, and deliver more value to our customers over time.”
Fully autonomous driving learnings: millions of miles (Q4 FY2025 call, both)
“With our Super Cruise experience, the expertise we brought in-house from Cruise, and our learnings from millions of miles of fully autonomous driving, we believe we have everything we need to deliver a safe, reliable, and highly capable system that customers will embrace.”
High-margin revenue from OnStar software and services including Super Cruise: around $400 million (2026, both)
“We expect an increase of around $400 million of high-margin revenue generated from the expansion of OnStar software and services including Super Cruise.”
PAST (realized)
- Our customers have now driven 1 billion hands-free miles and our subscription performance is on pace to exceed 850,000 subscribers by the end of the year with strong renewal trends in the 30% to 40% range.
- We recently took the next step and began supervised on-road testing in California and Michigan.
- In 2025, OnStar had a record 12 million subscribers, including more than 120,000 Super Cruise subscribers, achieving nearly 80% year-over-year growth.
- We reached our performance and emission goals at a third of the time versus the prior program by conducting thousands of combustion chamber simulations while we reduce prototyping for a 20% savings in material and tooling costs.
- For example, a cross-functional team developed a predictive weld quality model that has enabled us to deliver even more consistent welds and tighter control.
CURRENT (now)
- Today, nearly 90% of the code written by our autonomy team is generated by AI.
- Within the OnStar platform, Super Cruise is also scaling quickly.
- We're stress testing it in the digital environment capable of simulating roughly 100 years of human driving every single day.
- AI machine learning and robotics are also driving safety, quality, and speed in our manufacturing plants so we can get great products and technologies into the hands of customers faster.
- Directly improving cost and quality.
FORWARD (guidance)
- The continued growth of this ecosystem, including the customer base, miles traveled and the insights we're gaining to train our AI models will help pave the way for our eyes off, hands off technology launching in 2028 on the Cadillac Escalade IQ.
- We are doing something unique in the autonomous space, which is developing a system for personal vehicles that we can deploy on both ICE vehicles and EVs and scale across multiple brands and price points.
- For the calendar year, we expect $3.1 billion of recognized revenue, up 15% year-over-year.
- For the calendar year, we expect deferred revenue to approach $7.5 billion, up more than 35% year-over-year.
- This year, we will continue to grow our Super Cruise business in North America and expand into South Korea, the Middle East, and Europe.
- Also in 2028, we expect to launch our second-generation software-defined vehicle architecture for ICE vehicles and EVs.
- It's also an enabler for our eyes-off, hands-off driving technology.
- We expect an increase of around $400 million of high-margin revenue generated from the expansion of OnStar software and services including Super Cruise.
TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY
58/100 track record mixed 6 calls reviewed
GM delivered on its Cruise wind-down savings and showed strong early Super Cruise growth, but its quantified fleet and subscription-revenue targets were reframed or never explicitly closed out at year-end, making the judgeable track record genuinely mixed. Its largest bets — ~$2B Super Cruise revenue and 2028 eyes-off autonomy — remain too early to judge.
Roughly double the Super Cruise-equipped fleet in 2025 (off ~360K customers) — promised Q4 FY2024
partial Strong growth (Q1 up >100% YoY, 500K+ customers by Q3), but Q4 FY2025 never confirmed a doubling and shifted disclosure to ~120K paying subscribers
End robotaxi development at Cruise for ~$1B annualized run-rate savings — promised Q4 FY2024
delivered Cruise was wound down and its spend folded into personal-AV work; 2025 fixed-cost bridges showed the reductions as a tailwind
More than double Super Cruise subscription revenue in 2025 (>$200M) — promised Q4 FY2024
quietly-dropped Reaffirmed at >$200M in Q2 FY2025, but Q4 FY2025 never reported 2025 Super Cruise revenue against the target, reverting to broader OnStar/software metrics
Reach more than 600,000 Super Cruise customers by year-end 2025 — promised Q2 FY2025
partial Q3 2025 cited 500K+ customers (nearly doubled YoY) but Q4 reframed the headline to ~120K paying subscribers, leaving the 600K figure unconfirmed
Approach ~$2B in total annual Super Cruise revenue within five years — promised Q4 FY2024
too-early Reaffirmed via 'robust double-digit CAGR through end of decade' and reframed around broader OnStar/software revenue; the ~2029-30 timeframe has not arrived
Launch eyes-off/hands-off autonomous driving in 2028 on the Cadillac Escalade IQ — promised Q4 FY2025
too-early By Q1 FY2026 supervised on-road testing had begun with the 2028 plan intact, but the launch date has not arrived
PRICED-IN (REFINED)
MEDIUMEst. revisions rising · Fwd P/E 7.9 · EV/Sales 1.0x
AI claim maps to GMNA, GMI, Cruise
Estimate revisions are rising: buy ratings have increased while holds declined, and price targets show lastMonthAvg above lastQuarterAvg above lastYearAvg. Forward EPS is expected to grow meaningfully, although revenue growth is modest, so consensus is already baking in some operating improvement. Valuation is still reasonable for a mature automaker at 7.9x forward earnings and about 1.0x EV/sales, so rising estimates make AI upside more priced-in, but the stock is not being valued richly enough to call it high.
COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS
7Q4 FY20246Q1 FY20258Q2 FY20257Q3 FY20259Q4 FY20259Q1 FY2026
AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend ↗ rising
GM moved from Super Cruise revenue framing to broad AI-enabled autonomy, software, manufacturing quality, robotics, and code-generation specifics.
RECENT AI CATALYSTS & NEWS
BUSINESS IMPACT - QUALITATIVE MATERIALITY
7/10 qualitative impact material medium-term · mixed evidence
Where AI matters: Super Cruise, OnStar software services, autonomy and manufacturing productivity
GM has real deployed AI in Super Cruise/autonomy with 1B hands-free miles, expected 850k Super Cruise subscribers, OnStar digital-services revenue guidance, simulation infrastructure, and AI-generated autonomy code. The upside is meaningful for software/services and vehicle differentiation, but still small versus GM's consolidated auto revenue and partly bundled rather than cleanly disclosed.
Caveats: Super Cruise and AI-enabled revenue are bundled inside broader OnStar/software disclosures; Autonomy execution, safety validation, and regulatory approval could delay 2028 eyes-off launch; Tesla, Chinese OEMs, and software-first competitors may compress ADAS subscription pricing or reduce differentiation; Prior Super Cruise revenue and fleet targets were partly reframed rather than cleanly closed out
AI DISRUPTION / CANNIBALIZATION RISK tailwind · 2/10
AI does not automate away the core thing GM sells: engineered physical vehicles, manufacturing scale, distribution, financing, and safety/regulatory execution remain durable. The main threat is competitive differentiation in autonomy/software, not structural cannibalization of the auto revenue model.
OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE
option liquidity: good
proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $618M · beta 1.29 · px $81.73
source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.
CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE
Mixed — insiders selling, institutions adding, management language 8/10 committed.
INSIDERS selling 16 open-market sell(s) vs 0 buy(s) — net distribution
INSTITUTIONS (13F) adding as of 2026-03-31: 143 new / 185 closed positions; 726 increased / 562 reduced; institutional ownership +0.66pp; -56 net 13F holders
MGMT LANGUAGE 8/10 committed AI discussion is narrow but unusually concrete, with firm ownership, metrics, testing milestones, and a named 2028 launch.
commit “our eyes off, hands off technology launching in 2028 on the Cadillac Escalade IQ.”
commit “We're stress testing it in the digital environment capable of simulating roughly 100 years of human driving every single day.”
commit “Today, nearly 90% of the code written by our autonomy team is generated by AI.”
VERBATIM AI QUOTES
“Within the OnStar platform, Super Cruise is also scaling quickly.”
— Mary Barra, Q1 FY2026
“Our customers have now driven 1 billion hands-free miles and our subscription performance is on pace to exceed 850,000 subscribers by the end of the year with strong renewal trends in the 30% to 40% range.”
— Mary Barra, Q1 FY2026
“The continued growth of this ecosystem, including the customer base, miles traveled and the insights we're gaining to train our AI models will help pave the way for our eyes off, hands off technology launching in 2028 on the Cadillac Escalade IQ.”
— Mary Barra, Q1 FY2026
“We are doing something unique in the autonomous space, which is developing a system for personal vehicles that we can deploy on both ICE vehicles and EVs and scale across multiple brands and price points.”
— Mary Barra, Q1 FY2026
“We're stress testing it in the digital environment capable of simulating roughly 100 years of human driving every single day.”
— Mary Barra, Q1 FY2026
“Today, nearly 90% of the code written by our autonomy team is generated by AI.”
— Mary Barra, Q1 FY2026
“In Q1, we saw recognized revenue of over $750 million, up over 20% year-over-year.”
— Paul Jacobson, Q1 FY2026
“For the calendar year, we expect $3.1 billion of recognized revenue, up 15% year-over-year.”
— Paul Jacobson, Q1 FY2026
“We are on track to reach 13 million subscribers by the end of 2026, up by $1 million year-over-year with a monthly average revenue per subscriber of around $20.”
— Paul Jacobson, Q1 FY2026
“For the calendar year, we expect deferred revenue to approach $7.5 billion, up more than 35% year-over-year.”
— Paul Jacobson, Q1 FY2026
“So what I would say, Mark, we're continuing to trend at about that 40% attachment rate after the subscription period and we do it differently, right?”
— Paul Jacobson, Q1 FY2026
“And we're advancing automated driving technology in a way that separates GM from other companies.”
— Mary Barra, Q1 FY2026
“The growth of OnStar services and Super Cruise further underscores our confidence.”
— Mary Barra, Q4 FY2025
“In 2025, OnStar had a record 12 million subscribers, including more than 120,000 Super Cruise subscribers, achieving nearly 80% year-over-year growth.”
— Mary Barra, Q4 FY2025
“This year, we will continue to grow our Super Cruise business in North America and expand into South Korea, the Middle East, and Europe.”
— Mary Barra, Q4 FY2025
“We expect our deferred revenue from software and services to be approximately $7.5 billion by the end of this year up nearly 40% from 2025.”
— Mary Barra, Q4 FY2025
“We reached our performance and emission goals at a third of the time versus the prior program by conducting thousands of combustion chamber simulations while we reduce prototyping for a 20% savings in material and tooling costs.”
— Mary Barra, Q4 FY2025
“AI machine learning and robotics are also driving safety, quality, and speed in our manufacturing plants so we can get great products and technologies into the hands of customers faster.”
— Mary Barra, Q4 FY2025
“For example, a cross-functional team developed a predictive weld quality model that has enabled us to deliver even more consistent welds and tighter control.”
— Mary Barra, Q4 FY2025
“Directly improving cost and quality.”
— Mary Barra, Q4 FY2025
“Our robotics and AI work will converge at 2,500 robot and cobots controlled by GM Design Software.”
— Mary Barra, Q4 FY2025
“Also in 2028, we expect to launch our second-generation software-defined vehicle architecture for ICE vehicles and EVs.”
— Mary Barra, Q4 FY2025
“It's also an enabler for our eyes-off, hands-off driving technology.”
— Mary Barra, Q4 FY2025
“With our Super Cruise experience, the expertise we brought in-house from Cruise, and our learnings from millions of miles of fully autonomous driving, we believe we have everything we need to deliver a safe, reliable, and highly capable system that customers will embrace.”
— Mary Barra, Q4 FY2025
“We expect an increase of around $400 million of high-margin revenue generated from the expansion of OnStar software and services including Super Cruise.”
— Paul Jacobson, Q4 FY2025
ANALYST QUESTIONS ON AI
Q (Q1 FY2026, Itay Michaeli): And then a bigger picture question, quite to say the progress on software and services. And how level -- how should we think about the ARPU opportunity for the company on the upcoming SDV platform in 2028? As the sort of opportunity continues to grow from here?
A: As we roll out SDV 2.0, the number of opportunities out there start to magnify pretty significantly in terms of what the digital offerings that we can put out there.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Mark Delaney): My other question was on Super Cruise and the digital services. For the strong growth that GM has been seeing in Super Cruise and the willingness for consumers to subscribe after the prepaid subscriptions last, can you speak a bit more on the breadth of that consumer demand?
A: So what I would say, Mark, we're continuing to trend at about that 40% attachment rate after the subscription period and we do it differently, right?
Q (Q1 FY2026, Michael Ward): And then just going back to the digital services. I think you said that you expect margins to be in line with other software companies. When will we see those types of margins?
A: we've got a lot of about the potential of what SDV 2.0 and the future improvements to Super Cruise and ultimately, autonomy can do for us when you look at it across scale.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Andrew Percoco): I want to start on the digital services. I appreciate the added disclosure you guys have started to give here. But if I look at the 13 million or so subscribers that you're targeting by year-end. You've also got, I think, 45 million to 50 million vehicles on road. So I'm just curious, like how do you tap into that 35 million to 40 million other vehicles that don't currently have any subscription these digital services?
A: So as we continue to put SDV 2.0 and other capabilities, many of the vehicles that are out there don't have the hardware capabilities to be able to deliver that.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Andrew Percoco): I think super cruise is available on, I think, 750,000 miles of roads in the U.S. What's some of the gating factors in expanding that?
A: It really is as the company looks, it's both from -- in many cases, we have LIDAR map with the current system.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Joe Spak): But you know, the features in the car seem are seemingly becoming more important than your sort of highlighting that with some of the Super Cruise and other software. So will all these vehicles be able to use that next-gen architecture showed that I think is supposed to launch in '28?
A: As Steve our next-generation software-defined platform and Cruise will be available across both ICE and EV platforms.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Joe Spak): I just wondered if we could unpack $1 to $1.5 billion in onshoring software expense? And is there any way we should think about split between that?
A: certainly on the software side, we're continuing to invest in those technologists and those programmers to be able to get where we need to go on SDV 2.0 and, on autonomy and ultimately Super Cruise enhancements.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Andrew Percoco): And then maybe just coming back to Super Cruise, you mentioned expanding that into some international markets. Can you just remind us what maybe what regulatory approvals are needed to do that? And also, from a functionality standpoint, can you maybe just give us a roadmap for what improvements consumers might expect to see going forward, whether that be point to point?
A: We have a roadmap that we're working to where we continue to expand and add more features that we haven't announced yet, so stay tuned on that.
Q (Q4 FY2025, Mark Delaney): The company is expecting SuperCue's revenue to be $400 million in $20 up from $234 million at the 2025. You help us better understand what's driving such a big step up this year in Super Cruise revenue?
A: The Super Cruise revenue is a couple of things. So remember when we sell a vehicle with Super Cruise, we include three years of prepaid services on that.