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DKS · DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.

Specialty Retail · mkt cap $18.3B · calls: Q1 FY2026 vs Q4 FY2025
41.0 conviction · conf-adj 41

conf 2/10 🚀 reported Opus+GPT ✓ agree

enthusiasm:21.0 · trend:8 · quantifies:0 · impact:0 · under_radar:5 · credibility:0 · business_impact:4 · disruption:0 · commitment:0 · confirmation:3

Enthusiasm latest 7 / prev 6 (rising)

DKS’s AI story is athlete-facing expertise at scale (Coach IDEXX agent, GameChanger AI coaching/streaming) plus back-office personalization and labor/inventory models already in use; enthusiasm rose from exploratory Q4 answers to Q1 product announcements, but management never ties AI to dollars, margin, or productivity savings. Engagement stats (50% live streams, streaming vs. MLB) show GameChanger momentum after a broad platform update, not isolated AI ROI—credibility is moderate on deployment, low on measurable P&L impact.

GROUNDED NEXT-FY IMPACT vs CONSENSUS

Grounded on actual base — revenue $17.2B · net income $0.8B · net margin 4.9% · diluted EPS 9.97

These are next-fiscal-year annual uplift estimates, not next-quarter numbers.

Aggregate next-FY est. rev uplift: % · next-FY EPS uplift: % · vs analysts: unclear · priced in: medium (model's call-read: high; verdict above is the hard-data one used for ranking) · confidence: 2/10

ClaimFigureArithmeticNext-FY Rev %Next-FY EPS %
GameChanger ~50% of covered games streamed live (Q1 FY26 record)
engagement · soft		~50% of covered games streamed livePure engagement/penetration metric. No revenue-per-stream, no GameChanger revenue base, and no AI cost saving disclosed anywhere in the inputs. 50% * (undisclosed base) is unsizeable -> cannot convert to incr_rev or EPS.
More games streamed last month than in entire MLB history
other · soft		volume > all MLB games ever playedComparative scale/volume flex with no monetization rate, subscription price, or segment $ base in claims -> nothing to multiply against; cannot divide by $17,215,120,000 rev or $1,086,240,344 adj NI. Unsizeable.
GameChanger ~40% revenue CAGR (explicitly NOT attributed to AI)
revenue · soft		nearly 40% CAGRReal growth rate, but (a) management explicitly says it is NOT an AI claim, and (b) GameChanger's revenue $ base within DKS's $17.215B is undisclosed in the inputs, so 40% * (undisclosed base) cannot be computed and is not AI-attributable anyway. Cannot count toward AI uplift.

Assumptions: No next-FY $ phasing modeled: zero management claims state incremental AI revenue, opex savings, or bookings. Default tax 21% and incremental net margin = current net margin were prepared but never used, as no AI-attributable $ figure exists to flow through. GameChanger revenue is not broken out, so no segment base exists for the 40% CAGR or 50% live-stream share. EPS sensitivity would correctly use the adjusted/consensus base (NI $1,086,240,344; EPS $12.7184 x 85,144,000 sh), ~28% above GAAP NI $849,239,000 / EPS $9.97, to avoid thin-GAAP-denominator distortion — but there is no uplift to apply it to. Forward Coach IDEXX agent (summer FY26) and agentic athlete-experience items are qualitative, no figures -> excluded per no-invention rule.

Top line: No sizeable, AI-attributable topline impact can be quantified. DKS is a pure AI adopter (GameChanger streaming/UX, upcoming Coach IDEXX conversational agent). The only hard number — GameChanger's ~40% CAGR — is explicitly disclaimed by management as not an AI metric, and GameChanger's revenue $ base within the $17.215B total is undisclosed, so even that cannot be converted into a revenue %. The 50% live-stream share and 'more than all MLB history' stats are engagement/scale flexes with no monetization rate. Sized AI topline uplift = 0% (unanchored).

Bottom line: No quantified AI cost saving, productivity gain, or headcount figure was disclosed, so there is no after-tax saving to flow to EPS; est_eps_uplift_pct is null on absence of an anchor, not on a thin denominator. Note the thin-margin trap: at ~4.93% net margin a small saving would inflate a misleadingly large EPS%, but none was given. Illustratively only, a hypothetical $100M AI-credited GameChanger rev @6.37% adj incr margin -> $6.37M NI -> 0.59% EPS uplift; actual disclosed claims support no hard EPS bridge.

[impact n/m (all claims soft/unanchored)] No AI-specific dollar claim exists to compare against consensus, so est_rev_uplift_pct and est_eps_uplift_pct are null. GameChanger's ~40% growth (non-AI) and engagement records are already embedded in the consensus trajectory: revenue +~31% to $22.34B FY27, adj EPS $12.72 -> $14.33, adj NI ~$1.086B -> ~$1.218B. Coach IDEXX is a summer-launch product with zero disclosed financial target. Whatever modest AI contribution exists is indistinguishable from and subsumed within numbers analysts already carry; nothing in the AI commentary points measurably above consensus, and the gap between sized AI uplift (0) and consensus cannot be labeled ahead/behind.

MODEL CONSENSUS (impact)

Opus+GPT ✓ agree

X and Y agree fully: all three claims soft, every uplift null, priced_in high, verdict unclear. Reconciled wording; took lower confidence.

Conflicts reconciled
FieldOpus 4.8GPT-5.5
Rev uplift %––
EPS uplift %––
Priced inhigh–
vs analystsunclear–
Confidence3–
Top lineNo sizeable, AI-attributable topline impact can be quantified. DKS is a pure AI adopter (GameChanger streaming/UX, the upcoming Coach IDEXX conversational agent). The only hard number — GameChanger's ~40% CAGR — is explicitly disclaimed by management as not an AI metric, and GameChanger's revenue dollar base within the $17.215B total is undisclosed, so even that cannot be converted into a revenue %. The 50%-live-stream and 'more than all of MLB history' stats are engagement/scale flexes with no monetization rate attached.–
Bottom lineNo quantified AI cost saving, productivity gain, or headcount figure was disclosed, so there is no after-tax saving to flow to EPS. Note the thin-margin trap: at a 4.93% net margin, even a small disclosed saving would inflate a misleadingly large EPS%, but none was given — so est_eps_uplift_pct is null on absence of an anchor, not on a thin denominator.–
ReasoningThere is no AI-specific dollar claim to compare against consensus. GameChanger's ~40% growth is already embedded in the consensus trajectory (revenue +31% to $22.34B FY27, EPS $12.72 -> $14.33), and Coach IDEXX is a summer-launch product with zero disclosed financial target. So whatever modest AI contribution exists is indistinguishable from — and effectively subsumed within — numbers analysts already carry; nothing in the AI commentary points measurably above consensus.–

Rows highlighted where the two models disagreed.

QUANTIFICATIONS
GameChanger live-stream share of covered games: approximately 50% (Q1 FY2026, topline)
“In Q1, approximately 50% of all games covered on the platform were streamed live, a record for the business.”
GameChanger streaming volume vs. MLB historical games played: more games … than … entire history of major league baseball (last month alone (as of call), topline)
“In the last month alone, more games were streamed on game changer that have been played in the entire history of major league baseball.”
GameChanger revenue/scale growth (not attributed to AI): nearly 40% CAGR (unspecified period on call, both)
“GameChanger is the market leader in the multibillion-dollar tech sports space, and it continues to drive really strong comps—nearly 40% CAGR—and strong profitability.”
PAST (realized)
CURRENT (now)
FORWARD (guidance)
TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY

—/100 (no quantified promises)   no-quantified-promises  6 calls reviewed

Across six calls (Q4 FY2024–Q1 FY2026), DKS discussed digital investments, athlete-data personalization, GameChanger, and an AI agent (Coach IDEXX) without attaching numbers and deadlines to AI outcomes. Quantified guidance instead covered comps, store formats, GameChanger revenue, and Foot Locker turnaround—none framed as measurable AI delivery targets—so AI promise credibility cannot be scored from this transcript set.

PRICED-IN (REFINED)
MEDIUM

Est. revisions rising  ·  Fwd P/E 16.9  ·  EV/Sales 1.3x

AI claim maps to Footwear, Apparel, Hardlines

Analyst sentiment is migrating up (strongBuy 2→3, hold 12→9 since Jan) and price targets step up (lastMonth 261.6 > lastQuarter 258.75 > lastYear 248.73), while forward consensus embeds solid growth (FY27 revenue +31% vs FY26; EPS to ~16.4 by FY28). That rising revision stack argues some AI/ops upside is already in estimates, but valuation is not stretched (fwd P/E ~17, EV/Sales ~1.3, P/S ~0.96) and the stock still trades ~18% below recent avg targets. AI efficiency and personalization would most plausibly lift merchandise throughput in Footwear, Apparel, and Hardlines—not the small Other line—so the mixed picture is rising expectations on a still-reasonable multiple: medium priced-in, not high.
COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS
3Q4 FY20243Q1 FY20254Q2 FY20252Q3 FY20253Q4 FY20254Q1 FY2026

AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend → flat

No AI narrative builds; generic digital and app talk, brief athlete-data mention, Foot Locker adds light real-time data only.

RECENT AI CATALYSTS & NEWS
BUSINESS IMPACT - QUALITATIVE MATERIALITY

5/10 qualitative impact   moderate  medium-term · mixed evidence

Where AI matters: athlete engagement, omnichannel conversion, store ops

DKS has real AI in labor forecasting, inventory, app recommendations, GameChanger coaching/streaming, and the upcoming Coach IDEXX agent, but management never ties any of it to revenue, margin, or productivity dollars—GameChanger’s ~40% CAGR and streaming records are explicitly not framed as AI ROI.

Caveats: No quantified AI P&L bridge despite rising narrative; GameChanger engagement may not monetize at corporate scale; Third-party agentic commerce could route athletes away from DKS channels; Coach IDEXX is pre-launch with unproven conversion impact

AI DISRUPTION / CANNIBALIZATION RISK  tailwind · 3/10

Agentic shopping and price-discovery AI can pressure traffic and promotional intensity, but the core model—physical, fit- and brand-driven sporting goods with stores, services, and owned digital touchpoints—is not the billable-hours or content commoditization profile AI destroys; DKS is extending in-store expertise via Coach rather than selling hours AI deflates.

OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE

option liquidity: good

ATM IV
—
TYPICAL BID-ASK
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OPEN INTEREST
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proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $266M · beta 1.239 · px $214.74

source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.

CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE
Mixed — insiders selling, institutions adding, management language 6/10 measured.
INSIDERS selling 9 open-market sell(s) vs 0 buy(s) — net distribution
INSTITUTIONS (13F) adding as of 2026-03-31: 109 new / 113 closed positions; 366 increased / 251 reduced; institutional ownership +0.17pp; -17 net 13F holders
MGMT LANGUAGE 6/10 measured Brief AI focus: GameChanger shipped with metrics; Coach IDEXX is summer-launch future tense—mixed ownership, little hedge vocabulary.
commit “The impact has been immediate and measurable.”
commit “In Q1, approximately 50% of all games covered on the platform were streamed live, a record for the business.”
commit “We recently announced the upcoming summer launch of Coach IDEXX, our AI-powered digital agent”
VERBATIM AI QUOTES
“We recently announced the upcoming summer launch of Coach IDEXX, our AI-powered digital agent, representing a significant step forward in how we innovate for the athlete. Coach extends the expertise of our teammates into a personalized conversational experience, helping athletes make more confident decisions across product, training and services.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q1 FY2026
“Earlier this year, Game Changer launched the most comprehensive product update in its history , introducing 10 ADP live streaming, automated game highlight reels and a new suite of AI-powered coaching tools designed to help coaches Coach smarter.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q1 FY2026
“The impact has been immediate and measurable. In Q1, approximately 50% of all games covered on the platform were streamed live, a record for the business.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q1 FY2026
“At scale, the reach is significant. In the last month alone, more games were streamed on game changer that have been played in the entire history of major league baseball.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q1 FY2026
“We are creating more consistency across channels in how we help our athletes find the right solutions. Whether they are using better search and reviews online, tapping into new digital tools in the store or in the app, or working directly with our teammates, their experience is becoming more personalized and more connected.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q4 FY2025
“Lastly, as part of our broader digital strategy, we are harnessing the power of our athlete data and continue to be enthusiastic about the long-term opportunities we see with GameChanger and the DICK'S Media Network.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q4 FY2025
“For those of you who watch, the video quality is high definition—really incredible, really crisp, really clear. And we are going to continue to launch. We have coaches’ tools that we just launched.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q4 FY2025
“And with DMN, the tech team has done an amazing job really building automation so we can attribute sales to our partners’ investment.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q4 FY2025
“We are absolutely looking into all aspects of artificial intelligence, including agentic.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q4 FY2025
“I think there are two opportunities in the way our teams are looking at it. There is the opportunity to make our teammates more efficient and to remove a lot of manual work.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q4 FY2025
“Examples of that: we have some MarTech technology that we are building that can remove a lot of the manual work that they are doing.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q4 FY2025
“We are using AI right now in terms of store labor forecasting.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q4 FY2025
“We have a new AI-enabled tool in our app, and we are able to make more custom recommendations.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q4 FY2025
“So across the board, inventory management and making sure regional relevancy is happening is all factored with artificial intelligence.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q4 FY2025
“However, if you look to the future and you look at agentic, I think the biggest unlock in terms of our athlete experience is for us to really lean into what we call our common purpose and find ways to bring the power of our expertise and all of our opinion and knowledge that we have of sports and enable that to be available to people as they are working in the new world.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q4 FY2025
“We are working on that. More to come, but that is a big focus—to take all of our data, all of our knowledge, our teammates’ learnings over the years and make that available for consumers.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q4 FY2025
“So more to come.”
— Lauren Hobart, Q4 FY2025
ANALYST QUESTIONS ON AI
Q (Q4 FY2025, Michael Baker (D.A. Davidson)): Talk to us about agentic AI or how you are dealing with that. Do you think there has been any impact? Do you feel like you are well suited in that kind of environment? Just curious your view on how that works.
A: Lauren Hobart: DKS is exploring all aspects of AI including agentic along two tracks—(1) internal efficiency (MarTech to cut manual work, AI store labor forecasting, AI-enabled app recommendations, AI in inventory and regional relevancy) and (2) forward athlete-facing agentic unlock via “common purpose,” packaging sports expertise, data, and teammate knowledge for consumers; more to come, no quantified business impact stated.