← back to rankingDE · Deere & Company
Agricultural - Machinery · mkt cap $156.4B · calls: Q2 FY2026 vs Q1 FY2026
44.0 conviction · conf-adj 44
conf 3/10 partial
enthusiasm:24.0 · trend:8 · quantifies:0 · impact:0 · under_radar:5 · credibility:0 · business_impact:8 · disruption:0 · commitment:-4 · confirmation:3
Enthusiasm latest 8 / prev 7 (rising)
Deere’s AI thesis is increasingly concrete: computer vision, autonomy-ready machines, automation, connectivity, and job-site intelligence are being positioned as productivity tools that reduce inputs and create recurring digital/SaaS revenue. Credibility is supported by disclosed adoption and usage metrics, especially See & Spray acres, herbicide savings, JDLink kits, Operations Center usage, and renewal rates.
GROUNDED NEXT-FY IMPACT vs CONSENSUS
Grounded on actual base — revenue $44.7B · net income $5.0B · net margin 11.3% · diluted EPS 18.5
These are next-fiscal-year annual uplift estimates, not next-quarter numbers.
Aggregate next-FY est. rev uplift: % · next-FY EPS uplift: % · vs analysts: unclear · priced in: medium · confidence: 3/10
| Claim | Figure | Arithmetic | Next-FY Rev % | Next-FY EPS % |
|---|
See & Spray acreage covered: ~1M (yr1) -> ~5M acres
engagement · soft | 5M acres (from 1M) | 5x growth in covered acres, but Deere discloses no revenue-per-acre, equipment attach rate, or subscription fee; monetized via equipment attach + future SaaS, neither quantified. Cannot map to a Deere revenue $. | | |
Herbicide savings 50-60% via See & Spray
cost · soft | 50-60% herbicide savings (mid 55%) | This is the CUSTOMER's input-cost saving, not Deere's P&L. A demand/utilization driver for Deere equipment, not a Deere cost cut or revenue line. No dollar capture by Deere disclosed. | | |
JDLink Boost: >12,500 kits sold since H2 2024
revenue · soft | 12,500+ kits | Illustrative only (kit price undisclosed): 12,500 x ~$1,500 assumed = ~$18.75M cumulative over ~1.5yr -> ~$12.5M annualized. $12.5M / $44,665M = 0.028% rev; @20% blended incr net margin -> $2.5M / $5,027M = 0.05% EPS. Negligible; rests on assumed price. | 0.028 | 0.05 |
JDLink Boost +25% QoQ
engagement · soft | 25% growth/qtr | Growth rate on a sub-0.03% revenue base, no starting unit count/price/ARPU disclosed; rounding error even compounded. | | |
Operations Center engaged acres +10% YoY
engagement · soft | +10% YoY | Engagement metric; absolute acres, paid conversion and revenue-per-acre undisclosed. Drives recurring SaaS over time but unsized. | | |
Monthly active digital users ~440,000
engagement · soft | 440,000 MAU | Platform engagement count; no paid mix/ARPU/churn disclosed. Soft. | | |
Precision Essentials: ~4,000-5,000 new customer orgs
revenue · soft | ~5,000 orgs | Revenue would require ARPU per org; none disclosed, so 5,000 x undisclosed ARPU cannot be sized. Magnitude tiny either way. | | |
Precision Essentials renewals ~70% overall
engagement · soft | 70% renewal | Retention metric supporting recurring-revenue durability; base subscription revenue/ARPU undisclosed. Not a revenue delta. | | |
Precision Essentials 2nd-yr renewal >90%
engagement · soft | >90% (cohort) | Retention improves with tenure -> implies sticky SaaS LTV, but no cohort revenue/ARPU disclosed. | | |
Harvest automation utilization >60% (N. Hemisphere)
productivity · soft | >60% util | Feature utilization rate; no installed base, price premium or usage fee disclosed. Supports attach/premium pricing but unsized. | | |
Harvest automation utilization >80% (Brazil)
productivity · soft | >80% util | Stronger adoption signal; no Brazil installed base, premium or Deere margin capture disclosed. No revenue figure. | | |
Data center construction >$100B in 2026
other · soft | $100B TAM 2026 | External AI data-center construction TAM (tailwind for Deere Construction & Forestry selling INTO the buildout), NOT Deere revenue and NOT own-product AI. Deere share/incremental $ undisclosed ($100B/$44.665B=224% but not attributable). Cannot size. | | |
Data center construction double-digit growth into 2027
other · soft | double-digit growth | Vague forward TAM growth; supplier-side, unanchored to Deere $. | | |
Assumptions: Base: revenue $44.665B, net income $5.027B, net margin ~11.3%, diluted shares ~271.7M. Tax rate 21%. Incremental net margin 20% blended for JDLink hardware+SaaS (connectivity/SaaS richer than equipment). Phasing: JDLink 12,500 kits cumulative over ~1.5yr -> ~$12.5M annualized; kit price ~$1,500 ASSUMED (undisclosed) so the only non-null figure is illustrative low-confidence. All other claims lack disclosed ARPU/price/attach -> kept null per 'do not invent'. Data-center figures are external TAMs (supplier-side), excluded from adopter aggregate. Segment mapping: See & Spray/Ops Center/Precision Essentials -> Production & Precision Ag recurring revenue.
Top line: Deere's AI story is a classic ADOPTER one — precision ag (See & Spray, Operations Center, Precision Essentials SaaS, harvest/autonomy) improving its own products and building recurring revenue. But management quantified ENGAGEMENT (5M acres covered, 440k MAU, ~5,000 new orgs, +10% engaged acres, 60-80% utilization, 70-90% renewals), not dollars. The only unit-anchored claim, 12,500+ JDLink Boost kits, requires an assumed kit price; at ~$12.5M annualized it is ~0.03% of $44.7B revenue — rounding error. Hard-quantifiable adopter revenue uplift is ~0% (≤0.03% illustrative); the strategic value (durable high-margin recurring revenue) is real but unsized by the company.
Bottom line: Negligible quantifiable EPS impact: JDLink at 20% incremental net margin contributes ~$2.5M / $5,027M NI = ~0.05% EPS, and that rests on an undisclosed kit price. The herbicide 50-60% saving accrues to the CUSTOMER, not Deere's P&L — a demand driver, not a Deere cost cut, so no direct bottom-line flow. High renewal rates (>90% second-year) point to expanding software margin over time but with no disclosed dollar figure to size.
[impact n/m (all claims soft/unanchored)]
MODEL CONSENSUS (impact)
partial
Agree Deere is an unmonetized adopter: engagement metrics, no disclosed ARPU. Only JDLink is unit-anchored and immaterial; lowered confidence to low.
Conflicts reconciled
- est_rev_uplift_pct: X=0.03 vs Y=0.0 -> used 0.03 (X's only unit-anchored claim) but marked soft/low-confidence because kit price is assumed/undisclosed
- est_eps_uplift_pct: X=0.05 vs Y=0.0 -> used 0.05 for same reason; both mean 'negligible'
- ai_revenue_side: X=adopter vs Y=both -> used 'adopter' since all quantifiable Deere revenue is adopter-side; data-center is an external TAM, not Deere supplier revenue
| Field | Opus 4.8 | GPT-5.5 |
|---|
| Rev uplift % | 0.03 | 0.0 |
| EPS uplift % | 0.05 | 0.0 |
| Priced in | medium | medium |
| vs analysts | unclear | unclear |
| Confidence | 3 | 4 |
| Top line | Deere's AI story is a classic ADOPTER one — precision ag (See & Spray, Operations Center, Precision Essentials SaaS, harvest/autonomy) improving its own products and building recurring revenue. But management quantified ENGAGEMENT (5M acres covered, 440k MAU, ~5,000 new orgs, +10% engaged acres, 60-80% utilization, 70-90% renewals), not dollars. The only unit-anchored claim, 12,500 JDLink Boost kits (~$12.5M annualized = 0.03% of $44.7B revenue), is rounding error. Hard-quantifiable adopter revenue uplift is ~0.03%; the strategic value (durable high-margin recurring revenue) is real but unsized by the company. | Adopter-side quantified activity is real but not monetized in the disclosures: 5M See & Spray acres, 12,500+ JDLink Boost kits, 440,000 MAUs, about 5,000 Precision Essentials orgs, and 10% engaged-acre growth all lack price, ARPU, take-rate, or segment revenue anchors. Calculable next-FY adopter revenue uplift is therefore 0.0% of $44.665B, with upside soft rather than modelable. |
| Bottom line | Negligible quantifiable EPS impact: JDLink at 20% incremental net margin contributes ~$2.5M / $5,027M NI = 0.05% EPS. The herbicide 50-60% saving accrues to the CUSTOMER, not Deere's P&L, so it is a demand driver rather than a Deere cost cut — no direct bottom-line flow. High renewal rates (>90% second-year) point to expanding software margin over time but with no disclosed dollar figure to size. | The only explicit productivity number is 50%-60% herbicide savings, but that accrues to customers, not directly to Deere. With no Deere cost-saving dollar amount or monetization capture, calculable EPS uplift is 0.0% of $5.027B net income. |
| Reasoning | Consensus already models a CYCLICAL DECLINE next year — revenue $38.3B vs $44.7B current (-14.3%), EPS $18.42 vs $18.50 (-0.4%) — driven by the ag down-cycle, not AI. The quantifiable AI uplift (~0.03% revenue / ~0.05% EPS) is two orders of magnitude smaller than that cyclical move, so it neither beats nor rescues consensus and isn't a distinct sized driver in the numbers. The recurring precision-ag/SaaS narrative is partly embedded in Deere's premium multiple, but no AI claim here is large enough to move the forward estimate. | Consensus trajectory from FY2025 to FY2026 implies revenue rising from $38.286B to $44.909B, +$6.623B or +17.3%, and EPS rising from $18.417 to $24.968, +$6.550 or +35.6%. Against the supplied actual FY2025 base of $44.665B revenue and $18.50 EPS, FY2026 consensus is only +$244.2M revenue, +0.55%, but +$6.468 EPS, +35.0%. Since the AI claims provide no calculable Deere-dollar uplift, there is no hard evidence that AI adds above-consensus revenue or EPS; upside may exist but is not quantifiable from these figures. |
Rows highlighted where the two models disagreed.
QUANTIFICATIONS
See & Spray acreage covered: 1 million acres (year 1, both)
“Recall, year 1, we covered 1 million acres last year globally.”
See & Spray acreage covered: 5 million acres (last year globally, both)
“It was 5 million acres.”
Herbicide savings from See & Spray: 50% to 60% savings (2 years, bottomline)
“We're seeing an actual demonstrated 2 years now, 50% to 60% savings on herbicide using the technology and that is resulting in increased utilization for customers.”
JDLink Boost kits sold: more than 12,500 JDLink Boost kits (since launching that solution in the second half of 2024, topline)
“Since launching that solution in the second half of 2024, we sold more than 12,500 JDLink Boost kits and achieved 25% growth within the last quarter alone, expanding our connected fleet and increasing the value of our digital and SaaS offerings.”
JDLink Boost growth: 25% growth (within the last quarter alone, topline)
“Since launching that solution in the second half of 2024, we sold more than 12,500 JDLink Boost kits and achieved 25% growth within the last quarter alone, expanding our connected fleet and increasing the value of our digital and SaaS offerings.”
Operations Center engaged acres growth: about 10% year-over-year (year-over-year, both)
“I'd also note that while engaged acres in John Deere operations center increased about 10% year-over-year, highly engaged acres have grown at an even stronger pace.”
Monthly active digital users: nearly 440,000 (current, topline)
“Additionally, the quantity of monthly active digital users continues to grow, now reaching nearly 440,000.”
Precision Essentials customer organizations: more than 4,000 new customer orgs; closer to like 5,000 (current, topline)
“We have more than 4,000 new customer orgs as a result of that, actually closer to like 5,000.”
Precision Essentials renewal rate: 70% range overall (current, topline)
“We're still in that 70% range overall for renewals.”
Precision Essentials second-year renewal rate: over 90% (second year of renewal, topline)
“And if you look at that cohort, their renewal rate is over 90%.”
Harvest automation utilization: over 60% utilization (last quarter / Northern Hemisphere harvest, both)
“Last quarter, we talked about over 60% utilization of harvest automation in the sort of the Northern Hemisphere harvest.”
Harvest automation utilization in Brazil: over 80% (most recent harvest, both)
“As we've looked at Brazil and their utilization and their most recent harvest, it's over 80%.”
Data center construction demand: $100 billion (2026, topline)
“Data center construction is expected to top $100 billion in 2026, with additional double-digit growth into 2027.”
Data center construction growth: additional double-digit growth (into 2027, topline)
“Data center construction is expected to top $100 billion in 2026, with additional double-digit growth into 2027.”
PAST (realized)
- Recall, year 1, we covered 1 million acres last year globally.
- It was 5 million acres.
- We're seeing an actual demonstrated 2 years now, 50% to 60% savings on herbicide using the technology and that is resulting in increased utilization for customers.
- Since launching that solution in the second half of 2024, we sold more than 12,500 JDLink Boost kits and achieved 25% growth within the last quarter alone, expanding our connected fleet and increasing the value of our digital and SaaS offerings.
CURRENT (now)
- At CONEXPO in 2026, we generated a lot of buzz around the new John Deere excavator and a fully integrated job site vision with Tina virtual superintendent and the operation center, enabling a smarter and safer job site.
- Our job -- for the application job step, our senspray technology continues to advance.
- Additionally, the quantity of monthly active digital users continues to grow, now reaching nearly 440,000.
- Tenna provides a leading technology platform that automates contractor workflows, gives near real-time insights into equipment operations and maintenance and enhances visibility, planning and coordination to boost productivity and cut costs.
FORWARD (guidance)
- These tractors are autonomy ready and fully integrated with advanced precision technologies and connectivity solutions and our design to help farmers cover more acres efficiently throughout the crop cycle.
- In addition, our recently announced See & Scout capabilities leverage the same camera platform to capture field level data and generate new agronomic insights for growers, such as weed pressure and stand count maps.
- Taken together, this combination of job step innovation integrated technology and expanding connectivity positions us well to continue driving productivity for our customers while supporting recurring high-value revenues across the ag cycle.
- There's a huge demand to support the required infrastructure for AI investments.
TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY
—/100 (no quantified promises) no-quantified-promises 6 calls reviewed
Across these six calls Deere repeatedly discusses precision/autonomy and its 'tech stack' and notes that orders opened for an autonomous row crop tillage solution targeting spring delivery, but no AI-related claim attaches a hard NUMBER to a timeframe/milestone, so there is no quantified promise to score against.
PRICED-IN (REFINED)
MEDIUMEst. revisions rising · Fwd P/E 17.3 · EV/Sales 4.5x
AI claim maps to Production & Precision Ag (PPA), Small Agriculture, Compact Construction Equipment
Price targets show clear upward revision momentum, with last-month average above last-quarter and last-year averages, while ratings have been broadly stable with fewer bearish calls recently. Valuation is not cheap for a mature cyclical machinery company, especially at 4.5x EV/Sales and 32.7x TTM P/E, though the 17.3x forward P/E is less extreme. AI upside would most plausibly flow through Production & Precision Ag (PPA), Small Agriculture, and Compact Construction Equipment. Rising targets make the AI thesis more priced-in, but declining forward revenue and EPS expectations keep the verdict at medium rather than high.
COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS
2Q1 FY20254Q2 FY20252Q3 FY20252Q4 FY20252Q1 FY20263Q2 FY2026
AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend → flat
AI-related substance stayed minimal, with only vague smart industrial and technology-solution references lacking concrete AI products, economics, or adoption metrics.
RECENT AI CATALYSTS & NEWS
BUSINESS IMPACT - QUALITATIVE MATERIALITY
8/10 qualitative impact material medium-term · mixed evidence
Where AI matters: precision ag/autonomy/digital SaaS
AI is materially improving Deere’s core equipment value proposition through computer vision, autonomy-ready tractors, See & Spray, scouting, connectivity, and job-site intelligence, with concrete adoption metrics like 5M See & Spray acres, 440k monthly active digital users, and 12,500+ JDLink Boost kits. The strategic upside is real, but Deere has not tied it to meaningful revenue/EPS dollars yet, and disclosed hard-dollar uplift is still negligible versus company scale.
Caveats: Customer savings may not translate into Deere capture or pricing power; Digital/SaaS revenue remains unsized and small relative to machinery revenue; Adoption depends on farm economics, commodity cycles, and dealer execution; Competitors could narrow the precision-ag/autonomy feature gap
AI DISRUPTION / CANNIBALIZATION RISK tailwind · 1/10
AI does not commoditize Deere’s core machinery franchise; it makes the installed base more differentiated and raises switching costs through embedded hardware, data, dealer support, and software workflows. The main risk is execution or competitors matching precision/autonomy features, not AI automating away tractor or equipment demand.
OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE
option liquidity: good
proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $738M · beta 0.969 · px $579.25
source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.
CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE
Mixed — insiders selling, institutions adding, management language 3/10 hedged.
INSIDERS selling 5 open-market sell(s) vs 0 buy(s) — net distribution
INSTITUTIONS (13F) adding as of 2026-03-31: 275 new / 153 closed positions; 1144 increased / 996 reduced; institutional ownership -1.61pp; +122 net 13F holders
MGMT LANGUAGE 3/10 hedged AI/automation was barely discussed; language was broad, qualified, and tied to future enablement rather than concrete AI-driven results.
commit “technology solutions that are driving market share gains, and are expected to enable future growth as markets recover.”
commit “This enables us to sustain record investment across cycles to make these value-generating solutions a reality for our customers”
hedge “are expected to enable future growth as markets recover.”
VERBATIM AI QUOTES
“At CONEXPO in 2026, we generated a lot of buzz around the new John Deere excavator and a fully integrated job site vision with Tina virtual superintendent and the operation center, enabling a smarter and safer job site.”
— Brent Norwood, Q2 FY2026
“These tractors are autonomy ready and fully integrated with advanced precision technologies and connectivity solutions and our design to help farmers cover more acres efficiently throughout the crop cycle.”
— Josh Beal, Q2 FY2026
“In planting, new offerings have enabled burrow optimization through our exact depth solution, which is designed to provide individual row unit depth calibration from the cab while on the go and also through downforce automation, which is enabled by our recently released FurrowVision technology.”
— Josh Beal, Q2 FY2026
“Our job -- for the application job step, our senspray technology continues to advance.”
— Josh Beal, Q2 FY2026
“In addition, our recently announced See & Scout capabilities leverage the same camera platform to capture field level data and generate new agronomic insights for growers, such as weed pressure and stand count maps.”
— Josh Beal, Q2 FY2026
“Since launching that solution in the second half of 2024, we sold more than 12,500 JDLink Boost kits and achieved 25% growth within the last quarter alone, expanding our connected fleet and increasing the value of our digital and SaaS offerings.”
— Josh Beal, Q2 FY2026
“I'd also note that while engaged acres in John Deere operations center increased about 10% year-over-year, highly engaged acres have grown at an even stronger pace.”
— Brent Norwood, Q2 FY2026
“Additionally, the quantity of monthly active digital users continues to grow, now reaching nearly 440,000.”
— Brent Norwood, Q2 FY2026
“We're seeing an actual demonstrated 2 years now, 50% to 60% savings on herbicide using the technology and that is resulting in increased utilization for customers.”
— Josh Beal, Q2 FY2026
“Harvest settings automation, which you didn't ask about, but I just did want to mention utilization there has continued to be very strong.”
— Josh Beal, Q2 FY2026
“Meeting these goals require smart machines and data-driven insights to execute tasks and manage job sites efficiently.”
— Ryan Campbell, Q1 FY2026
“Second, we're enhancing the tasks that the machines do individually on the job site through precision technologies like SmartGrade, SmartDetect and SmartWeigh.”
— Ryan Campbell, Q1 FY2026
“Tenna provides a leading technology platform that automates contractor workflows, gives near real-time insights into equipment operations and maintenance and enhances visibility, planning and coordination to boost productivity and cut costs.”
— Ryan Campbell, Q1 FY2026
“At the end of this month, we'll be at Commodity Classic in San Antonio, Texas with several major product launches and updates to our advanced technology solutions.”
— Joshua Jepsen, Q1 FY2026
“There's a huge demand to support the required infrastructure for AI investments.”
— Ryan Campbell, Q1 FY2026
ANALYST QUESTIONS ON AI
Q (Q2 FY2026, Jerry Revich): Brent, congratulations again. I wanted to ask on Precision Ag. Can you folks talk about your expected See & Spray acreage covered this year, a retrofit orders are tracking and precision essential renewal rates for the '25 cohort? And any comments you can make on the list price increases for the advanced features that you're rolling out as part of BOP, please?
A: See & Spray, we're encouraged by the progress that we're seeing this year. Again, just maybe starting with acres and how many we're going to cover. Recall, year 1, we covered 1 million acres last year globally. It was 5 million acres. We're early in the spring season. But again, the kind of -- similar to my comments on the EOP, as we look at those same customers from a year ago, they are year-to-date, spring more acres with See & Spray than we saw last year. So we're encouraged. We're encouraged by that pace. And again, what's given us a lot of confidence is the technology is working. We're seeing an actual demonstrated 2 years now, 50% to 60% savings on herbicide using the technology and that is resulting in increased utilization for customers.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Tami Zakaria): My question is on the new excavator, which is quite exciting. Curious whether you can comment on any marketing plans around the launch of this? Are you expecting to put in some promotions to gain share, any financing promotions, incentive for dealers or anything along those lines to start off on a strong note?
A: And again, at CONEXPO, we'll continue to emphasize the message of the value that we're delivering through technology, through improved durability and just the productivity and capability of the new excavator.