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Auto - Parts · mkt cap $15.6B · calls: Q1 FY2026 vs Q4 FY2025
62.0 conviction · conf-adj 62
conf 2/10 partial
enthusiasm:24.0 · trend:8 · quantifies:0 · impact:0 · under_radar:14 · credibility:5 · business_impact:8 · disruption:0 · commitment:0 · confirmation:3
Enthusiasm latest 8 / prev 7 (rising)
Aptiv’s AI thesis is that its automotive sensing, compute, software, ADAS and interconnect stack can be reused in robotics, drones, data centers and edge AI infrastructure. The latest call is more explicit than the prior call because management directly calls AI a structural tailwind for both Intelligent Systems and Engineered Components. Credibility is moderate: management cites partnerships, launches, pilots and software growth, but most quantified figures are adjacent to AI rather than clean AI revenue disclosure.
GROUNDED NEXT-FY IMPACT vs CONSENSUS
Grounded on actual base — revenue $20.4B · net income $0.2B · net margin 0.8% · diluted EPS 0.75
These are next-fiscal-year annual uplift estimates, not next-quarter numbers.
Aggregate next-FY est. rev uplift: % · next-FY EPS uplift: % · vs analysts: unclear · priced in: low (model's call-read: medium; verdict above is the hard-data one used for ranking) · confidence: 2/10
| Claim | Figure | Arithmetic | Next-FY Rev % | Next-FY EPS % |
|---|
S&S revenue double-digit growth (Q1'26)
revenue · soft | double-digit / ~10% | Growth RATE on the Software & Services line. Only total annual rev $20.398B and total quarterly rev $5.1B are disclosed; the S&S segment dollar base is NOT in any claim, so incr_rev = undisclosed S&S base * ~10% is incomputable and cannot become a company-level uplift %. Undisclosed base -> soft. | | |
S&S +10% growth (Q1'26)
revenue · soft | 10% | Quote discloses total Q1 revenue $5.1B but not the S&S base; 10% applies only to the undisclosed S&S portfolio, not total revenue. Duplicate of the double-digit claim. incr_rev = unknown -> EPS impact (at 0.81% net margin) not computable. soft. | | |
Robotics software TAM $6B (Q4'25)
revenue · soft | $6B TAM | $6.0B = 29.4% of $20.398B revenue, but TAM is total addressable market, NOT Aptiv revenue. No capture/share rate, booking, or next-FY phasing disclosed; $6B*share is incomputable without inventing share. Early-stage (POCs/pilots). soft. | | |
Robotics content $4-5k/unit (Q4'25)
revenue · soft | $4,000-$5,000 content/unit | Revenue = units * $4-5k * win rate, but unit volumes, win rate, and next-FY timing are all undisclosed. Cannot size against $20.398B revenue / $165M net income. soft. | | |
S&S growing mid-teens (Q4'25/'26)
revenue · soft | mid-teens (~15%) | Same S&S line growth rate; incr_rev = undisclosed S&S base * ~15%, not convertible to a company-level $ uplift, so EPS impact at 0.81% net margin is also not computable. soft. | | |
Assumptions: Tax rate 21% (no cost-saving claims exist to apply it to). Incremental flow-through would use Aptiv's current net margin ~0.81% unless a higher-margin S&S dollar base were disclosed — none is. Phasing N/A: no multi-year incremental dollar claim. All claims map to the Software & Services / robotics-content topline, whose dollar size is not given in any input; TAM and content-per-unit treated as opportunity, not revenue. GUARDRAIL flagged: NI base $165M (net margin 0.8%) is depressed/tiny — 1% of revenue (~$204M) already exceeds net income, so any EPS-uplift % would be a non-meaningful artifact.
Top line: Genuine adopter-side momentum — Software & Services compounding double-digit-to-mid-teens and a stated $6B robotics-software TAM at ~$4-5k content/vehicle — but every figure is a growth RATE or a market/per-unit number with no disclosed S&S segment dollar base or unit volume in the inputs. None can be honestly converted to a company-level revenue-uplift %, so the aggregate is null, not zero. No supplier-side claims (supplier uplift 0).
Bottom line: No quantifiable EPS impact. Beyond the missing revenue base, the current net-income base is only $165M (0.8% net margin); 1% of revenue (~$204M) already exceeds net income, so any EPS-uplift % would be a mathematical artifact of a depressed earnings base rather than a real signal. Set to null.
[impact n/m (all claims soft/unanchored)] No numeric consensus gap is computable — the AI claims yield no sizable $ figure. Context: consensus revenue falls from ~$20.34-20.398B (2025) to $14.072B (2026) (-31%, portfolio separation/EDS), while consensus EPS is ~$6.22 vs a depressed current actual $0.75 and consensus net income $1.385B vs current $165M. Mid-teens S&S organic growth is the kind already embedded in such estimates; robotics is genuine but pre-commercial optionality (POCs/pilots, partnerships TBA), unquantified on both sides. Neither clearly ahead nor behind — medium/priced-in by default with no measurable upside to bank.
MODEL CONSENSUS (impact)
partial
Both agree all claims are soft/null adopter-side with no computable uplift; reconciled supplier figure to 0 and held confidence at the lower value.
Conflicts reconciled
- supplier_rev_uplift_pct: X=null vs Y=0 -> used 0 because all claims are adopter-side, so supplier uplift is genuinely zero, not unknown
- confidence: X=2 vs Y=3 -> used 2 (more conservative) given no anchored figure is computable
| Field | Opus 4.8 | GPT-5.5 |
|---|
| Rev uplift % | – | – |
| EPS uplift % | – | – |
| Priced in | medium | medium |
| vs analysts | unclear | unclear |
| Confidence | 2 | 3 |
| Top line | Genuine adopter-side momentum — Software & Services compounding double-digit-to-mid-teens and a stated $6B robotics-software TAM at ~$4-5k content/vehicle — but every figure is a growth RATE or a market/per-unit number with no disclosed S&S segment dollar base or unit volume in the inputs. None can be honestly converted to a company-level revenue-uplift %, so the aggregate is null, not zero. | No hard next-FY adopter revenue uplift is calculable. The strongest numeric claim, 10% software/services growth, lacks the software/services revenue base. The $6B robotics TAM equals 29.4146% of current revenue, but it is market size, not Aptiv revenue. |
| Bottom line | No quantifiable EPS impact. Beyond the missing revenue base, the current net-income base is only $165M (0.8% net margin); 1% of revenue (~$204M) already exceeds net income, so any EPS-uplift % would be a mathematical artifact of a depressed earnings base rather than a real signal. Set to null. | No hard EPS uplift is calculable. Using current net margin would be appropriate for disclosed incremental revenue, but all adopter revenue figures lack either Aptiv revenue base, capture rate, unit volume, or next-FY phasing. |
| Reasoning | Cannot compute a numeric consensus gap: the AI claims yield no sizable $ figure. Context — consensus revenue collapses from $20.34B (2025) to $14.07B (2026) (portfolio separation / EDS), while EPS holds ~$6.22-6.80 vs a depressed current actual $0.75. Mid-teens S&S organic growth is the kind already embedded in such estimates; robotics is genuine but pre-commercial optionality (POCs/pilots, partnerships 'to be announced'), unquantified on both sides. So neither clearly ahead nor behind — medium/priced-in by default with no measurable upside to bank. | 2026 consensus revenue is $14.0719B versus current $20.3980B, a -31.0135% change. 2026 consensus EPS is $6.22298 versus current EPS of $0.75, a +729.7307% change; consensus net income is $1.3846B versus current $165.0M, a +739.1256% change. Because the AI claims produce no hard revenue or EPS uplift, there is no arithmetic basis to say they are ahead of consensus. |
Rows highlighted where the two models disagreed.
QUANTIFICATIONS
software and services revenue growth: double-digit revenue growth (Q1 FY2026, topline)
“Our financial results reflected continued momentum advancing our strategic priorities, including high single-digit revenue growth in nonautomotive markets and double-digit revenue growth across our software and services product portfolio as well as margin expansion of 30 basis points, excluding FX and commodities, a measure more reflective of the results of our business given we passed the majority of input cost inflation on to our customers.”
software and services revenue growth: 10% growth (Q1 FY2026, topline)
“Revenues of $5.1 billion grew at an adjusted rate of 1%, driven by strength at EDS, while [ new ] Aptiv absorbed certain customer mix headwinds, but importantly, progressed in diversifying revenues with 9% growth in nonautomotive, and 10% growth in software and services.”
robotics software TAM: $6 billion (Q4 FY2025, topline)
“So, it's a TAM that we estimate to be about $6 billion.”
robotics content opportunity: roughly 4 to $5,000 of content (Q4 FY2025, topline)
“When you look at the, you know, a comparable to our content per vehicle that we use for the automotive sector. It's roughly 4 to $5,000 of content.”
software and services growth: mid-teens (Q4 FY2025 / 2026 outlook context, topline)
“And finally, our Software and Services business continues to grow at mid-teens, which we are pleased with.”
PAST (realized)
- Our tech stack, which first enabled intelligence at the edge for automotive applications is now gaining momentum for applications in other markets such as drones within aerospace and defense, and robotics within diversified industrials.
- As AI accelerates, it provides a structural tailwind for both of our businesses, whether that be some of the products that we have in intelligence systems, or in engineered components, as more and more is driven to the edge, AI is driven to the Edge.
- Our momentum continued during the fourth quarter across all segments, as reflected by our partnership announcements with two robotics companies, Robust AI and Vecna Robotics, spanning sensing, compute, and software in intelligent systems.
CURRENT (now)
- And in robotics, we partnered to enhance the functionality and performance of both an AI-powered collaborative robot and an autonomous mobile robot for material handling, each of which integrates our award-winning pulse sensor and advanced compute solutions.
- Lastly, our commercial momentum has also accelerated in the robotics and drone markets.
- Wind River, I would say, is from a software standpoint, the tip of the spear.
FORWARD (guidance)
- Continued product innovation supporting new and emerging use cases across diverse end markets, including two that were showcased at last week's Beijing Auto Show, the advancement of our next-generation end-to-end AI-powered ADAS platform designed to deliver safer and more enhanced hands-free L2++ autonomy in both highway and urban environments.
- In addition, we've been executing sub proofs of concept and pilots in both the robotics and drone markets, that we're confident will translate to commercial agreements, and we plan to share further progress on these efforts in the near future.
- We think during the first quarter we'll have more commercial relationships or partnerships that we'll be announcing that will show the traction that we have in place.
TRACK RECORD — PROMISE vs DELIVERY
48/100 track record mixed 6 calls reviewed
Aptiv makes few hard, dated AI-specific numeric targets; its one clear forward multi-year automation target (30% by 2026) was quietly dropped via the EDS spin-off and Wind River's growth promise was undercut by a $648M impairment, while its strongest 'delivered' items are achieved-state ADAS/software claims rather than forward promises — leaving a thin, mixed track record.
Increase EDS manufacturing automation to 30% by 2026 and over 50% by 2030 — promised Q4 FY2024
quietly-dropped Never re-quantified; the EDS business was spun off as Versagen on April 1, 2026, so the dated target stopped being tracked with no update
Wind River (edge-AI/embedded software) to deliver mid-teens revenue growth in 2025 — promised Q3 FY2025
partial Wind River grew >20% in Q3 and double-digits YTD (target roughly met), but Aptiv took a $648M Wind River goodwill impairment citing slower-than-expected 2023-24 growth
Wind River DevSecOps tooling improved software-developer productivity by over 20% — promised Q4 FY2024
delivered Cited as an achieved result and repeated through 2025 as an ASUX margin driver; sustained, though stated as accomplished rather than a forward target
Radar AI/ML behavior planner delivering 99% better classification in all weather and 80% better object-size estimation — promised Q1 FY2025
delivered Stated as achieved performance of the PACE-award-winning shipping product, productized into Gen 6/Gen 8 ADAS wins; an accomplishment claim rather than a future promise
PRICED-IN (REFINED)
LOW (room left)Est. revisions flat · Fwd P/E 11.2 · EV/Sales 1.1x
AI claim maps to Advanced Safety and User Experience, Electrical Distribution Systems, Engineered Components Group
Rating mix has improved, with more buy/strong-buy ratings and fewer holds, but price targets are moving lower, with last-month average below last-quarter and last-year averages. Forward estimates do not show fast consensus growth, with revenue declining across the listed forward years and EPS only modestly recovering by 2027. At 11.2x forward P/E and 1.1x EV/sales, valuation is not stretched for a mature auto-parts supplier, so AI upside in the most relevant segments does not appear fully priced in.
COVERAGE — ENTHUSIASM TRAJECTORY + CATALYSTS
6Q4 FY20247Q1 FY20257Q2 FY20257Q3 FY20258Q4 FY20259Q1 FY2026
AI enthusiasm across 6 calls — trend ↗ rising
AI evolved from ADAS/Wind River edge opportunities into a core intelligent-edge, robotics, autonomy, and software-services growth thesis.
RECENT AI CATALYSTS & NEWS
BUSINESS IMPACT - QUALITATIVE MATERIALITY
7/10 qualitative impact material medium-term · mixed evidence
Where AI matters: ADAS, edge compute, embedded software and robotics content
Aptiv has credible adopter-side AI exposure through AI-powered ADAS, edge compute, sensors, Wind River software and robotics/drone applications, with partnerships and software/services growth showing more than generic experimentation. The caveat is that most numbers are TAMs, growth rates or content-per-unit claims rather than clean AI revenue, and robotics/drone commercialization is still early.
Caveats: AI revenue contribution is not separately disclosed and may be small versus total auto-parts revenue; Robotics and drone opportunities are still pilots/partnerships with uncertain scale and timing; ADAS and edge-AI platforms face strong competition from OEM insourcing, chip vendors and larger software stacks; Auto production cycles and portfolio separation may overwhelm AI-driven growth signals
AI DISRUPTION / CANNIBALIZATION RISK tailwind · 2/10
AI does not directly automate away Aptiv's core model of supplying automotive electrical architecture, sensing, compute and embedded software; it tends to raise vehicle and edge-device content. The main risk is competitive commoditization or OEM/NVIDIA-style platform control in ADAS/software, not AI deflating Aptiv's basic revenue units.
OPTIONS / MARKET STRUCTURE
option liquidity: fair
proxy inputs — dollar-ADV $230M · beta 1.308 · px $73.85
source: proxy (no options chain on FMP)
FMP /stable/ exposes no options-chain endpoint on this key, so ATM IV, bid-ask spread and open interest are unavailable. Liquidity below is a PROXY from dollar-ADV, beta and price level (a stand-in for option depth), not measured option-market data.
CONFIRMATION — INSIDERS · 13F · LANGUAGE
Mixed — insiders selling, institutions adding, management language 6/10 measured.
INSIDERS selling 4 open-market sell(s) vs 2 buy(s) — net distribution
INSTITUTIONS (13F) adding as of 2026-03-31: 106 new / 121 closed positions; 365 increased / 254 reduced; institutional ownership -5.66pp; -23 net 13F holders
MGMT LANGUAGE 6/10 measured Concrete AI-enabled products and partnerships, but commercialization language remains partly pipeline-oriented and future-weighted.
commit “the advancement of our next-generation end-to-end AI-powered ADAS platform designed to deliver safer and more enhanced hands-free L2++ autonomy”
commit “we partnered to enhance the functionality and performance of both an AI-powered collaborative robot and an autonomous mobile robot for material handling”
hedge “we've been executing sub proofs of concept and pilots in both the robotics and drone markets”
VERBATIM AI QUOTES
“Our deep domain expertise and experience providing OEMs with our technology stack to enable their vehicles to sense, think, act and continually optimize increasingly can be utilized for applications in other end markets, which I'll talk more about in a moment.”
— Kevin P. Clark, Q1 FY2026
“First, we've built a comprehensive portfolio that collectively powers intelligence at the Edge by enabling devices and systems to sense, think, act and continually optimize.”
— Kevin P. Clark, Q1 FY2026
“Continued product innovation supporting new and emerging use cases across diverse end markets, including two that were showcased at last week's Beijing Auto Show, the advancement of our next-generation end-to-end AI-powered ADAS platform designed to deliver safer and more enhanced hands-free L2++ autonomy in both highway and urban environments.”
— Kevin P. Clark, Q1 FY2026
“And in robotics, we partnered to enhance the functionality and performance of both an AI-powered collaborative robot and an autonomous mobile robot for material handling, each of which integrates our award-winning pulse sensor and advanced compute solutions.”
— Kevin P. Clark, Q1 FY2026
“Our tech stack, which first enabled intelligence at the edge for automotive applications is now gaining momentum for applications in other markets such as drones within aerospace and defense, and robotics within diversified industrials.”
— Kevin P. Clark, Q1 FY2026
“Lastly, our commercial momentum has also accelerated in the robotics and drone markets.”
— Kevin P. Clark, Q1 FY2026
“As AI accelerates, it provides a structural tailwind for both of our businesses, whether that be some of the products that we have in intelligence systems, or in engineered components, as more and more is driven to the edge, AI is driven to the Edge.”
— Kevin P. Clark, Q1 FY2026
“They need high-speed interconnects, high-speed cable assemblies. We need RTOS solutions, or Linux solutions to enable performance at the Edge, and those are areas that in automotive, we've been enabling for a very long period of time.”
— Kevin P. Clark, Q1 FY2026
“Our momentum continued during the fourth quarter across all segments, as reflected by our partnership announcements with two robotics companies, Robust AI and Vecna Robotics, spanning sensing, compute, and software in intelligent systems.”
— Kevin Clark, Q4 FY2025
“First, we continue to enhance our product portfolio with the launch of a number of new innovations across each of our segments, including interconnect product lines that leverage our expertise in both the automotive and aerospace markets, next-generation sensing and AI-powered software solutions that deliver market-leading performance at a competitive cost for applications across a broad range of end markets, and lastly, high-power distribution solutions for applications in energy storage.”
— Kevin Clark, Q4 FY2025
“With Vecton Robotics to co-develop next-generation autonomous mobile robots, or AMRs, enhancing safety, intelligence, and cost-effectiveness across warehouses and factories.”
— Kevin Clark, Q4 FY2025
“And robust AI, to co-develop AI-powered cobots accelerating innovation in warehouse and industrial automation.”
— Kevin Clark, Q4 FY2025
“Wind River, I would say, is from a software standpoint, the tip of the spear.”
— Kevin Clark, Q4 FY2025
“So, it's a TAM that we estimate to be about $6 billion.”
— Kevin Clark, Q4 FY2025
ANALYST QUESTIONS ON AI
Q (Q1 FY2026, Chris McNally): And so my question here is on some of the exciting opportunities that the world is all seeing in AI and data centers, and that some of your competitors have strong business opportunity in. Could you just talk about what would have to happen organically for you to start to invest?
A: We have a very focused initiative as it relates to building out our data center product portfolio, certainly our space product portfolio. So there's been a great deal of focus in that space, and we're gaining real traction. To meaningfully move it, as we've talked about in the past, that really requires M&A.
Q (Q1 FY2026, Chris McNally): I mean I kind of focus on AI and data centers. But like energy storage actually should be very easy given some of the customers now, obviously, with a lot of battery -- excess battery capacity in the U.S., the customer set is almost the same for a good portion of that business. Is that one that could be done a little bit more organically?
A: As AI accelerates, it provides a structural tailwind for both of our businesses, whether that be some of the products that we have in intelligence systems, or in engineered components, as more and more is driven to the edge, AI is driven to the Edge.
Q (Q4 FY2025, James Picariello): And then my follow-up is on Wind River and its potential with respect to robotics and just how you foresee that, you know, the future end market demand, tied to AI and robotics, humanoid robotics. Does Wind River have, you know, have a TAM there and a place to play?
A: So Wind River, I would say, is from a software standpoint, the tip of the spear. So they serve multiple markets, including the robotics market. Today with Linux solutions, with RTOS solutions, and other software products. So, it's a TAM that we estimate to be about $6 billion.